Low Expectations (IRE)
Low Expectations is a gelding who has three wins from 13 starts on turf, all at Class 5 in handicaps. He won the Kalm Kitchen Christmas Handicap Hurdle at Plumpton over 1m5f – 2m on soft in Dec 2025 off 91, and took two Class 5 novices handicaps over 2m1f – 2m4f on good to soft at Windsor and Fontwell the previous month off 91 and 83. Typically held up, he finished 7 of 8 at Ascot in Mar 2026 off an official rating of 104.
- 3–13Wins / Runs
- 23.1%Strike rate
- 4 (30.8%)Placed
- −2.80£1 level staken=13 at SP
- 1.76Fair A/E n=13 · 1.50 incl. margin
- 105Highest OR
- 46dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 124
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 5 | 111A | 90 | 2 · 111 / 103.5 |
| Soft | 4 | 97C | 94 | 3 · 97 / 96 |
| Good | 2 | 124A | 109.5 | 1 · — |
| Good to Firm | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 6 | 111A | 95.5 | 4 · 111 / 96.5 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 96A | 84.5 | 1 · — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2 | 124A | 117.5 | 1 · — |
Of 13 runs looked at, 1 has no figure: no standard for this course, surface and code on the window (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 12 figures from 13 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 8 analysed runs
- Held up 5 (63%) · 1 win
- Led 2 (25%) · 1 win
- Prominent 1 (13%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9% of 1,251 runs since Jan 2008 (155 horses).
Strongest on heavy going: 14.2% from 183.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | +2.1 | 0 from 1 |
| Good | 419 | 40 | 9.5% | +0.5 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 259 | 21 | 8.1% | −0.9 | 2 from 5 |
| Soft | 364 | 23 | 6.3% | −2.7 | 1 from 4 |
| Heavy | 183 | 26 | 14.2% | +5.2 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 8 | 0 | 0% | −9 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −9 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 5 | 2 | 40% | +31 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 399 | 30 | 7.5% | −1.5 | 1 from 4 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 480 | 39 | 8.1% | −0.9 | 2 from 7 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 317 | 35 | 11% | +2 | 0 from 2 |
| Over 3m | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | +3.5 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Whitley Neill (IRE) (1 win).
The wins came over 2m2½f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Whitley Neill (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whitley Neill (IRE) | 13 | 1 | 2m2½f | Class 4 |
| Gino Drummer Boy (IRE) | 21 | 0 | — | — |
| Lotus Hill (IRE) | 11 | 0 | — | — |
| Nicklass (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 5 | 2 | 40% | +3.70 |
| Soft | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.50 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 7 | 3 | 43% | +3.20 |
| Class 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fontwell | 3 | 1 | 33% | +3.50 |
| Plumpton | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.50 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Huntingdon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Windsor | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.20 |
| Exeter | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kempton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Downpatrick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 7 | 2 | 29% | +1.70 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.50 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Davies | 11 | 3 | 27% | −0.80 |
| Tabitha Worsley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mr J W Hendrick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 7 | 3 | 43% | +3.20 |
| Hood | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 2025 | 9 | 3 | 33% | +1.20 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 12 | 3 | 25% | −1.80 |
| Flat | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 26+66d | Ascot | Barrie Wells Box4Kids Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Pulled hard early - front and margin shrinking by the 8th - pushed along and edged right before 2 out before losing the lead and falling to third approaching the last - faded on the run-in to finish 7th | 7/8 | 1¾ | 11-8 | 104 | 124A | 106A | James Davies | 11/1 |
| 22 Jan 26+32d | Huntingdon | Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Handicap Hurdle Contested pace from the off - moved in front after the 2nd and stayed there for a spell - pressed along on the turn approaching three out then lost the advantage nearing two out - dropped away soon after finishing well beaten | 8/15 | ½ | 11-4 | 105 | 97C | 100C | James Davies | 15/2 |
| 21 Dec 25+20d | Lingfield | At The Races App Expert Tips Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Held up early holding an eager grip and drifting right at obstacles - towards the back of the field - moved into third after the second - edged in front briefly four out - overtaken soon after - stayed in touch - drifted right again two out and faded to finish fourth | 4/6 | 7 | 11-12 | 105 | 67B | 115B | Tabitha Worsley | 3/1 |
| 01 Dec 25+8d | Plumpton | Kalm Kitchen Christmas Handicap Hurdle Pulling hard early - sat just behind pace before pressing forward approaching 2 out - went clear before the last - kept finding more to the line | 1/7 | 11-9 | 91 | 96A | 121B | James Davies | 1/2F | |
| 23 Nov 25+16d | Windsor | Find Us At fitzdares.com Novices' Handicap Hurdle Up with the front group early - moved to the front at the 5th and driven out before 2 out - asserted on the run-in to score convincingly | 1/9 | 11-13 | 91 | 111A | 127B | James Davies | 6/5F | |
| 07 Nov 25+196d | Fontwell | Southern Cranes And Access Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Led throughout - pushed along after the second last - pulled away on the run-in to score with ease | 1/10 | 11-0 | 83 | 96B | 119A | James Davies | 11/2 | |
| 25 Apr 25+33d | Fontwell | starsports.bet Handicap Hurdle Handy early - urged on from 6th - driven approaching 3 out - 4th 2 out before fading to finish 6th | 6/12 | 2¾ | 11-2 | 86 | 95B | 105A | James Davies | 12/1 |
| 23 Mar 25+17d | Exeter | Harcombe Handicap Hurdle Settled just off the pace on the rail - hit the 7th and made progress from the 9th - up to 4th but couldn't quicken 2 out and stayed there | 4/6 | 24 | 11-8 | 89 | 111C | 94C | James Davies | 16/1 |
| 06 Mar 25+27d | Fontwell | BetGoodwin Free Bet Nose Losers Handicap Hurdle Settled at the back throughout - a spent force from 3 out | 7/10 | 3 | 11-1 | 92 | 90B | 87A | James Davies | 12/1 |
| 07 Feb 25+23d | Kempton | Racing TV Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Held up towards back of pack - no impression made - well held throughout - finished 9th | 9/14 | 2½ | 11-7 | — | 74C | 107C | James Davies | 125/1 |
| 15 Jan 25+30d | Newbury | Grosvenor Sport Cash Back Offers Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Held up at the back - unable to make progress from 3 out - well held at the finish | 8/13 | 3 | 11-2 | — | 92B | 100A | James Davies | 150/1 |
| 16 Dec 24+87d | Plumpton | Dawson Hart Gallop Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Settled in the pack early - jumping untidily in fifth - dropped away under pressure before three out - struggled again at the second last and made no headway approaching the final fence | 6/12 | 8½ | 11-3 | — | 77B | 96A | James Davies | 66/1 |
| 20 Sep 24 | Downpatrick | September Flat Race Held up towards the back - improved along inside into 5th two furlongs out - pushed along and stayed on to take 3rd close home | 3/11 | 4½ | 11-5 | — | — | 66B | Mr J W Hendrick | 33/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Low Expectations (IRE) won?
- Low Expectations (IRE) won 3 of 13 archived starts between 2024 and 2026, a strike rate of 23.1%. Placed 4 times in total (30.8% of starts).
- Who trains Low Expectations (IRE)?
- Low Expectations (IRE) is trained by Nick Gifford, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 29 March 2026.
- Who is Low Expectations (IRE)'s sire?
- Low Expectations (IRE) is by Sans Frontieres (IRE) out of Maidrin Rua (IRE), whose sire is Zaffaran.
- What going does Low Expectations (IRE) prefer?
- Low Expectations (IRE) has the best record on good to soft going: 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Low Expectations (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 104, from the run on 29 March 2026. The highest on record is 105.
- What is Low Expectations (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Sans Frontieres (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9% of 1,251 runs since Jan 2008 (155 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on heavy going: 14.2% from 183.
- Who are Low Expectations (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Maidrin Rua (IRE), Low Expectations (IRE) has 4 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Whitley Neill (IRE) (1). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Whitley Neill (IRE)). The wins came over 2m2½f. As at Oct 2026.