Must Bay (FR)
Must Bay (FR) is 1 from 5. The win came on good or faster ground (0 from 4 on softer). Last raced off a career-high mark of 96.
- 1–5Wins / Runs
- 20%Strike rate
- 1 (20%)Placed
- +2.90£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 1.20Fair A/E n=5 · 1.02 incl. margin
- 96Highest OR
- 75dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 14.3% of 3,987 runs since Jun 2020 (425 horses).
Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 8 | 0 | 0% | −14.3 | — |
| Good to Firm | 587 | 92 | 15.7% | +1.4 | — |
| Good | 995 | 140 | 14.1% | −0.2 | 1 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 471 | 70 | 14.9% | +0.6 | 0 from 3 |
| Soft | 625 | 81 | 13% | −1.3 | — |
| Heavy | 183 | 27 | 14.8% | +0.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 1,118 | 161 | 14.4% | +0.1 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 102 | 11 | 10.8% | −3.5 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1,184 | 183 | 15.5% | +1.2 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,278 | 165 | 12.9% | −1.4 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,093 | 165 | 15.1% | +0.8 | 1 from 5 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 272 | 40 | 14.7% | +0.4 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 53 | 7 | 13.2% | −1.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 5 | 0 | 0% | −14.3 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jun 2020 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
No other produce in our archive. It holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from 2005, so siblings racing elsewhere won’t appear here.
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.90 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Cloud (FR) | 3 | 1 | 33% | +4.90 |
| Clairefontaine (FR) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Longchamp (FR) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tongue tie | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Hood + tongue tie | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.90 |
| None | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +3.90 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 4 runs | ||||||||
| 11 Sep 26+28d | Saint-Cloud (FR) | Prix Turenne | 4/8 | hd | 8-13 | 96 | Ronan Thomas | 5/1 |
| 14 Aug 26+78d | Clairefontaine (FR) | Prix Des 20 Ans De Radio Balances (Grand Prix De Clairefontaine) | 4/9 | ½ | 8-13 | 94 | Ronan Thomas | 17/2 |
| 28 May 26+27d | Longchamp (FR) | Sosafe Prix des Epinettes (Handicap) (Turf) | 6/16 | hd | 9-12 | 94 | Ronan Thomas | 41/10F |
| 01 May 26+168d | Saint-Cloud (FR) | Prix de Beaumesnil (Handicap) (Turf) | 1/16 | 9-3 | 86 | Ronan Thomas | 69/10 | |
| 2025 · 1 run | ||||||||
| 14 Nov 25 | Saint-Cloud (FR) | Prix Kantar (Conditions) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) | 5/9 | 1¾ | 9-2 | — | Ronan Thomas | 8/5F |
Quick answers
- How many races has Must Bay won?
- Must Bay (FR) won 1 of 5 archived starts between 2025 and 2026, a strike rate of 20%. Placed 1 time in total (20% of starts).
- Who trains Must Bay?
- Must Bay (FR) is trained by C Lerner, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 11 September 2026.
- Who is Must Bay's sire?
- Must Bay (FR) is by New Bay (GB) out of Madeleine Must (FR), whose sire is Motivator.
- What is Must Bay's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 96, from the run on 11 September 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Must Bay's sire's record?
- New Bay (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 14.3% of 3,987 runs since Jun 2020 (425 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.