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Horse profile

Saffron Bay (AUS)

2yo filly · Trainer Charles Hills · Owner Ace Stud
by Lucky Vega (IRE) out of River Dance (GB) (Frankel)
2 runs · 2 courses · from Aug 2026
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Beaten favourite LTO Last run 29 Aug 2026 · 5th of 13
KTB Profile

Saffron Bay is a lightly raced filly by Lucky Vega out of a Frankel mare whose sole sibling to race has not won. She has two starts since Aug 2026 with no wins or places, one on turf and one on all-weather. Her best effort came when third of six at Lingfield on standard going over 1m to 1m1f in Aug 2026. She was beaten favourite when fifth of 13 at Beverley on soft ground over 6f to 7f later that month, having been held up.

Based on 2 archived runs · run-style from 2 commented runs since Aug 2026 · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB Speed and Rating

KTB Speed

Best recent Speed 81 the best of the last 1 graded (A or B) run · Lingfield (AW), 8 Aug 2026

How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →

Flat 2 figures · best 81B · median 78
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 1 Nov 2025
Soft1——1 run · —
Standard (AW)1——1 run · —
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 1 Nov 2025
6f – 7f1——1 run · —
1m – 1m1f1——1 run · —

KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 2 figures from 2 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

KTB Rating

Best recent KTB Rating 60B the best of the last 2 rated runs · Lingfield (AW), 8 Aug 2026

What the horse achieved in each race, in pounds on the official-rating scale, from the weight carried, the lengths beaten and the race's own level solved across the archive — never the market, never the official rating as a starting point. The headline is the best of the horse's last three rated runs on that code — its best recent day. The KTB Rating on a racecard is a different reading of the same figures: the level the horse has been running to, an average of up to its last six runs with the latest counting most, so the two can differ. A, B or C on a run is how much known form was in that race. What this means →

Flat 2 figures · best 60B · median 58
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 1 Nov 2025
Soft1——1 run · —
Standard (AW)1——1 run · —
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 1 Nov 2025
6f – 7f1——1 run · —
1m – 1m1f1——1 run · —

KTB Rating v1 · batch 3 Oct 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 2 figures from 2 runs · as at 4 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.

Pedigree intelligence

Sire

Progeny in our archive have won 16.5% of 522 runs since Mar 2025 (103 horses).

Strongest on good to firm going: 21.6% from 102.

GoingRunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Good to Firm1022221.6%+5.1—
Good1462114.4%−2.1—
Good to Soft761519.7%+3.2—
Soft721013.9%−2.60 from 1
Heavy1417.1%−9.4—
Standard (AW)1121715.2%−1.30 from 1
Distance (all codes)RunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Under 6f5259.6%−6.9—
6f – 7f2524517.9%+1.40 from 1
1m – 1m1f1522617.1%+0.60 from 1
1m2f – 1m4f641015.6%−0.9—
1m5f – 2m200%−16.5—

Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Mar 2025 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast

Dam
River Dance (GB) (Frankel)

1 sibling in the archive, 0 winners.

ProduceRunsWinsWin tripsBest grade
Green Bay Dancer (IRE)10——

Too few runs for meaningful splits. The full record is below.

Form

DateCourseRace PosBtn Wgt SpdKTB Jockey SP
2026 · 2 runs
29 Aug 26+21d Beverley IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race) Class 4 · 7½f · Soft · 13 ran Held up mid-pack under restraint - pushed along with 2f left - nudged forward approaching final furlong - held level through the closing stages before fading late - dropped a place near the line to finish fifth 5/13 1½ 9-2 75C56A Oisin Orr 13/8F
08 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Calabash Cove EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Class 4 · 1m · Standard · 6 ran Sat close to front pack early - urged forward with over two furlongs left - kept going at an unchanged effort to finish third 3/6 nse 9-2 81B60B Rob Hornby 100/30

Quick answers

How many races has Saffron Bay won?
Saffron Bay (AUS) has yet to win, from 2 archived starts in 2026.
Who trains Saffron Bay?
Saffron Bay (AUS) is trained by Charles Hills, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 29 August 2026.
Who is Saffron Bay's sire?
Saffron Bay (AUS) is by Lucky Vega (IRE) out of River Dance (GB), whose sire is Frankel.
What is Saffron Bay's sire's record?
Lucky Vega (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 16.5% of 522 runs since Mar 2025 (103 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on good to firm going: 21.6% from 102.
Who are Saffron Bay's siblings?
Out of River Dance (GB), Saffron Bay (AUS) has 1 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Nov 2026.

Record shown from August 2026. Our archive holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from January 2005. Any runs before that, or in other countries, are not in it. In-running comments are available from 2024 onward.