Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 2.6%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−1.8
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−1.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
4.8%+3.0
n=21 · A/E 4.28 · £1 +14.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
2.6%+0.8
n=39 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −2.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−1.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle3700%−36.00
Chase1815.6%+20.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3100%−25.00
Heavy2314.3%+9.00
Good to Soft100%−1.00
Good100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Compiegne (FR)2314.3%+9.00
Auteuil (FR)1800%−18.00
Clairefontaine (FR)400%−4.00
Corlay (FR)300%—
Dieppe (FR)200%−2.00
Craon (FR)200%−2.00
Nancy (FR)100%—
Orleans (FR)100%—
Le Pin au Haras (FR)100%—
Saint-Brieuc (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1200%−2.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 5100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav200%0.00−2.00
4th–6th fav6116.7%3.93+26.00
7th+ in betting4100%0.00−41.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3712.7%−2.00
1m5f – 2m1200%−12.00
Over 3m400%−2.00
2m5f – 3m300%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221100%−11.00
20232000%−17.00
20241317.7%+22.00
2025800%−7.00
2026400%−4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1400%−14.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2300%−23.00
8-10 runners1400%−10.00
5-7 runners10110%+25.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
14-16 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 24 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
··800000000·
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Desinvolte (FR) — Prix de Sospel (Hurdle) (Conditions) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) Enghien (FR) · Apr 2016
Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,781 runs since 2008 (411 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 203 · newest first
The latest 50 of 203 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 May 2006 to 22 July 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Thomas Blainville's strike rate?
Thomas Blainville has won 1 of 56 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 1.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Thomas Blainville's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 47 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Thomas Blainville·SR 1.8%·A/E 0.77
KTB
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