1:15 Curragh
This 2yo maiden over 6f at the Curragh on good to firm ground features a field of 19 with no obvious leader, setting up a steadily-run, tactical contest. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals separated by just three points, underlining how open the race appears on the numbers. Jewel In A Crowd heads the KTB ranking at 53 while the likes of Snowing, Tradewinds, A I Nation and New Bond Street sit immediately behind on 52-50, each bringing different levels of experience and yard strength.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape indicating a lack of any obvious leader and medium confidence in that view, the race is set to be run at a steady tempo where being handy should pay dividends. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, though New Bond Street tends to settle in mid-division. The key question is whether the race falls into the lap of a closer or if those positioned more prominently can take advantage of the predicted tactical nature.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Jewel In A Crowd KTB Selection53/100Placed third on debut over this trip at the Curragh then finished fifth last time.
- 2Snowing52/100Snowing has shown fair early speed but finished only fifth on debut here over 5f and was beaten again on her second start.
- 3Tradewinds51/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, finishing third in both runs at this track.
- 4A I Nation50/100A I Nation is a newcomer from the JP Murtagh yard which has a solid 10% strike rate at the Curragh from a large sample.
- 5New Bond Street50/100New Bond Street showed fair form when third on debut and then fifth last time, both over this trip.
- 6Marco Polo49/100Son of No Nay Never out of a useful mare who has produced two stakes winners including the high-class sprinter Lady Aurelia.
- 7Brageiro48/100Brageiro is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background.
- 8Bengal Tiger48/100Bengal Tiger is a newcomer from the powerful A P O'Brien yard which has a strong 19% strike rate at Curragh from thousands of runners.
- 9New World Order47/100New World Order is a debutant with nothing on the track to go on.
- 10Push The Boat Out47/100Push The Boat Out is a debutant with little known about his ability on the track.
- 11My Lucky Journey45/100My Lucky Journey showed some promise when finishing fourth on debut over this trip at the Curragh.
- 12Joltin Joe45/100Joltin Joe is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on his pedigree and connections.
- 13Santerno45/100Lightly raced with just one run to go on, Santerno finished fifth of 13 over this trip at the Curragh on debut.
- 14Atlantic Bridge45/100Atlantic Bridge showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over 5f here.
- 15Luca Brillante44/100Luca Brillante showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over this trip.
- 16Mutamarid Lsk44/100Mutamarid Lsk has shown little in two runs at this trip and now tries first-time headgear.
- 17Katty42/100First-time runner by Kodiac out of a modest dam who has produced a couple of minor winners.
- 18Nando The Great42/100Nando The Great is a newcomer whose profile rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 19King Paddy40/100King Paddy is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
The contenders
Jewel In A Crowd KTB Fit 53/100
Jewel In A Crowd has shown modest form so far, finishing third on debut over this trip at the Curragh and then fifth last time out. The form is nothing to shout about and the small sample leaves little to go on, yet the colt remains the KTB Selection. Ciaran Murphy's 6% strike rate at the Curragh from 51 runs is modest, as is Luke McAteer's 5% from 297 rides. The horse is unproven on good to firm and has been placed once here without winning. Usually held up, he produces his effort late according to the limited evidence available.
Snowing KTB Fit 52/100
Snowing displayed fair early speed but could only finish fifth on debut here over 5f and was beaten again on her second start. She now steps up to 6f for the first time, which poses a fresh question. Aidan O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4427 runs while Ryan Moore is operating at 30% from 703 rides at the track. The filly is unproven on good to firm and has finished fifth here without placing. She is usually held up and produces her effort late on the basis of limited evidence.
Tradewinds KTB Fit 51/100
Tradewinds is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, finishing third in both runs at this track. He has been placed twice at today's trip from three attempts and is proven on good to firm having been competitive once without winning. The yard's 9% strike rate at the Curragh from 223 runs is modest and the 5lb claimer Paddy Harnett is on 6% from 110 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he has been placed twice here without winning.
A I Nation KTB Fit 50/100
A I Nation is a newcomer from the J P Murtagh yard which has a solid 10% strike rate at the Curragh from 851 runs. The 2yo carries the yard's customary first-time tongue-tie and is drawn widest of all in stall 17. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence available the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which are not supplied here. Jamie Powell takes the ride with an 8% strike rate at the track from 234 rides.
New Bond Street KTB Fit 50/100
New Bond Street showed fair form when third on debut and then fifth last time, both over this trip. The yard has a solid 18% strike rate at the Curragh from 179 runs and with only two career starts the colt is still very much unproven. W J Lee is on 9% at the track from 1478 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he is unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record. The small sample means plenty of scope for improvement remains.
The rest of the field
Marco PoloKTB Fit 49/100
Marco Polo is a son of No Nay Never out of a useful mare who has produced two stakes winners including the high-class sprinter Lady Aurelia. Cost 525,000 euros as a yearling and represents the powerful Aidan O'Brien barn that has a strong 19% strike-rate at this track. Everything about the profile screams above-average newcomer though the jockey's modest 6% record at Curragh from 974 rides adds a note of caution on debut.
BrageiroKTB Fit 48/100
Brageiro is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background. The yard has a solid 8% strike-rate from 159 runs at the Curragh and knows what is required on debut here. Shane Foley takes the ride with a 9% strike rate at the track from 1485 rides.
Bengal TigerKTB Fit 48/100
Bengal Tiger is a newcomer from the powerful A P O'Brien yard which has a strong 19% strike rate at Curragh from thousands of runners. Jack Cleary takes the ride with a 6% strike rate at the track from 90 rides. With low data confidence the assessment rests on his sales and pedigree background which is not supplied here.
New World OrderKTB Fit 47/100
New World Order is a debutant with nothing on the track to go on. The pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here but the data confidence is low so any conclusions remain tentative. Murtagh has a solid 10% strike rate from 851 runs at the Curragh while Oisin Murphy takes the ride with an 8% strike rate from 59 rides.
Push The Boat OutKTB Fit 47/100
Push The Boat Out is a debutant with little known about his ability on the track. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Curragh from a large sample and the jockey records a solid 13% strike rate here from over 1200 rides. Pedigree and sales information is the main guide but overall data confidence remains low.
My Lucky JourneyKTB Fit 45/100
My Lucky Journey showed some promise when finishing fourth on debut over this trip at the Curragh. The form is hard to weigh up given just one run to go on and the wide draw in stall 18 will not help. Trainer J A Stack has a 7% strike rate from 341 runs here while Declan McDonogh has an 8% strike rate from 2261 rides at the track. Usually held up according to limited evidence, he is unproven on good to firm.
Joltin JoeKTB Fit 45/100
Joltin Joe is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on his pedigree and connections. The Noel Meade yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Curragh from a large sample. Gavin Ryan takes the ride but no course-specific jockey record is available to judge.
SanternoKTB Fit 45/100
Lightly raced with just one run to go on, Santerno finished fifth of 13 over this trip at the Curragh on debut. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample of runners. Data confidence remains low given the small amount of evidence available. Dylan Browne McMonagle is on 12% at the track from 546 rides.
Atlantic BridgeKTB Fit 45/100
Atlantic Bridge showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over 5f here. He now steps up to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Curragh from 50 runs while the jockey is operating at 3% from 232 rides. Usually held up on the basis of limited evidence, he has one run on good to firm with no win or place.
Luca BrillanteKTB Fit 44/100
Luca Brillante showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over this trip. The small sample makes it hard to judge how much improvement he can find. Trainer has a 9% strike rate from 1570 runs at Curragh while Chris Hayes is on 7% from 1904 rides here. Typically settling in midfield according to limited evidence, he is unproven on good to firm.
Mutamarid LskKTB Fit 44/100
Mutamarid Lsk has shown little in two runs at this trip and now tries first-time headgear. The yard holds a modest 7% strike rate from 61 runs at Curragh while Sheridan matches that with a 7% record from 318 rides here. Data confidence is low given the small sample so this one is best treated with caution. Usually held up on the basis of limited evidence, he is unproven on good to firm.
KattyKTB Fit 42/100
Katty is a first-time runner by Ghaiyyath out of a modest dam who has produced a couple of minor winners. Sold for 32,000 euros as a yearling. Trainer has a modest 0% strike-rate from 29 runs at the Curragh and the low data confidence means there is little else to go on. David Egan is on 10% at the track from 82 rides.
Nando The GreatKTB Fit 42/100
Nando The Great is a newcomer whose profile rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate from 133 runs at the Curragh while the jockey manages a 6% strike rate from 701 rides here. With low data confidence and both connections operating below par at this track, the colt's debut chance looks limited.
King PaddyKTB Fit 40/100
King Paddy is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 133 runs at Curragh offers little encouragement. Pedigree and sales background are the only pointers here but with low data confidence any firm view would be unwise. Gary Carroll is on 7% at the track from 974 rides.
KTB verdict
Jewel In A Crowd is the KTB Selection in a race where the top five are separated by very little on the Fit scores. The selection has placed on debut here over the trip and while the form is modest the small sample leaves scope for him to improve. Aidan O'Brien's Snowing and the consistent Tradewinds look the most obvious dangers, while the newcomers from powerful yards such as A I Nation cannot be entirely dismissed despite wide draws or lack of experience. The steadily-run nature should suit those with a turn of foot from off the pace.
KTB Selection Jewel In A Crowd
This is the narrative read of the 1:15 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has been placed both times it has run at the Curragh?
Tradewinds has finished third on both runs at this track.
How many of the principals are unproven on good to firm going?
Jewel In A Crowd, Snowing and New Bond Street have no runs on good to firm.
Which runner carries first-time headgear?
Mutamarid Lsk tries first-time headgear.
What is the highest trainer strike rate at the Curragh among the connections in this race?
Aidan O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4427 runs.
Which horse is stepping up from 5f to 6f having shown fair pace on debut here?
Atlantic Bridge finished fourth on debut over 5f here and now steps up to 6f.
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