2:50 Curragh
This 5f handicap at the Curragh on good to firm ground brings together a competitive field of 14 useful performers, several with strong course records and recent form. The KTB Fit ratings identify Gazelle d'Or as the clear top horse on 72, with a cluster of dangers between 61 and 55 underlining the depth on offer. Multiple runners arrive in first-time headgear, and course form, trip suitability and ground preference will all come under scrutiny in what looks a typical midweek sprint puzzle at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Rosie Frith is the one horse with front-running tendencies and is likely to take up that role from a low draw, while the bulk of the field, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the leader can dictate terms and stretch the closers on this fast ground, or whether one of the stronger hold-up performers can bridge the gap in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Gazelle d'Or KTB Selection72/100Useful performer who has won three times at this track from seven runs and arrives in decent form having finished second in both starts this month.
- 2Arugam Bay61/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip.
- 3Rosie Frith57/100Rosie Frith is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip and looks suited by good to firm ground having scored once from two runs on it.
- 4The Highway Rat56/100Useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with a third and a fourth from 11 runs here.
- 5Headmaster56/100Useful performer who has already won over this course.
- 6Sarahmae55/100Sarahmae is a useful performer who has won five times at this trip from 14 attempts and also landed a race here at the Curragh from 12 visits.
- 7Ipanema Queen55/100Ipanema Queen is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has three wins from nine starts at this trip.
- 8Erosandpsyche54/100Useful performer who has been placed on his last two starts and looks to have a good draw in stall 3.
- 9Chicago Call52/100Useful performer who has not really kicked on since early promise and arrives in ordinary form.
- 10Genesis51/100Genesis is a fair handicapper with solid course experience, having won two of eight starts here including a recent success.
- 11Cuban Grey48/100Cuban Grey is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, having won two of his six runs here.
- 12Focaccia45/100Focaccia is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing third here on his most recent visit.
- 13Finika44/100Finika is a fair performer on the balance of her three runs and has already shown she handles this ground.
- 14Prairie Girl41/100Prairie Girl is a fair mare who has won three times at this trip and arrives in decent form after two recent victories.
The contenders
Gazelle d'Or KTB Fit 72/100
Gazelle d'Or is a useful performer who has won three times at this track from seven runs and arrives in decent form having finished second in both starts this month. She drops back to 5f having last run over 6f, a trip at which she has also won three times from seven attempts, though she showed little on her only previous go on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Curragh with an A/E of 1.18 from 247 runs, while jockey Sam Coen has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.57 from 30 rides. Her run-style is to be held up and produce her effort late, which fits the shape of a race that could see an uncontested leader.
Arugam Bay KTB Fit 61/100
Arugam Bay is a useful performer who has already won over this trip. He has shown respectable form at this track without landing a blow and his latest effort was below par. The yard hold a solid record here while the 7lb claimer is an interesting booking. The trainer and jockey combination shows 5 wins from 37 rides with an A/E of 1.32 and positive LSP of +£8.00. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Curragh with an A/E of 1.12 from 135 runs, and the jockey has a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 1.49 from 25 rides. He is held up in his racing, unproven on good to firm, and his course record reads two placed efforts without a win.
Rosie Frith KTB Fit 57/100
Rosie Frith is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip and looks suited by good to firm ground having scored once from two runs on it. She has been below her best on her last two starts after a win at the Curragh in June and her record here reads 0-2 with no placed efforts. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution. The trainer and jockey record stands at 2 wins from 17 rides with an A/E of 0.80 and LSP of -£2.50. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be significant given the projected lone-leader pace shape on good to firm going.
The Highway Rat KTB Fit 56/100
The Highway Rat is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with a third and a fourth from 11 runs here. He drops back to 5f today having won six times at the trip in the past though his only run on good to firm ground brought no joy. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Curragh adds a negative. The trainer and jockey combination shows 57 wins from 404 rides with an A/E of 1.07 and LSP of +£136.44. He is held up in his racing and has been placed but not won from his 11 starts at the Curragh.
Headmaster KTB Fit 56/100
Headmaster is a useful performer who has already won over this course. Dropping back to an untried 5f poses a fresh question and he has failed to win in three runs on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now added from stall 14. The trainer and jockey record stands at 8 wins from 56 rides with an A/E of 0.88 and LSP of -£14.59. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Curragh with an A/E of 0.73 from 1097 runs, while the jockey has a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.82 from 546 rides. He is held up in his racing and has won once from two starts at the track.
The rest of the field
SarahmaeKTB Fit 55/100
Sarahmae is a useful performer who has won five times at this trip from 14 attempts and also landed a race here at the Curragh from 12 visits. She has been in and out of form this year with two wins from her last six starts yet has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate from 370 runs at this track adds a note of caution. She is held up in her racing.
Ipanema QueenKTB Fit 55/100
Ipanema Queen is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has three wins from nine starts at this trip. She has shown solid form on good to firm ground with one win and a placing from four attempts. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate from 50 runs here while David Egan takes the ride. She is held up in her racing.
ErosandpsycheKTB Fit 54/100
Erosandpsyche is a useful performer who has been placed on his last two starts and looks to have a good draw in stall 3. He has won on good to firm and at this trip, though his record at the Curragh itself is modest with no wins from 11 runs. First-time headgear is now fitted. He is held up in his racing.
Chicago CallKTB Fit 52/100
Chicago Call is a useful performer who has not really kicked on since early promise and arrives in ordinary form. He has twice been down the field over this course and trip, including on his most recent visit, and the first-time headgear is now reached for. The trainer operates at a steady 10% strike rate here while the jockey is 0-11 at the track. He is held up in his racing.
GenesisKTB Fit 51/100
Genesis is a fair handicapper with solid course experience, having won two of eight starts here including a recent success. He has won at this trip and shown he can be competitive on good to firm, though he is yet to score on it. First-time headgear is now added to a horse whose recent form has been patchy. He is held up in his racing.
Cuban GreyKTB Fit 48/100
Cuban Grey is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, having won two of his six runs here. He has also won seven times at this trip from 47 starts and has placed twice from four runs on good to firm ground, though without a win on it. The first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse that has been busy this year. He is held up in his racing.
FocacciaKTB Fit 45/100
Focaccia is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing third here on his most recent visit. He has won over today's 5f trip but drops back in distance having been well held over 6f last time, while his two runs on good to firm have produced no placed efforts. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Curragh from a big sample adds a note of caution. He is held up in his racing.
FinikaKTB Fit 44/100
Finika is a fair performer on the balance of her three runs and has already shown she handles this ground. She was well held when tried here over six furlongs last time though, and now drops back to five furlongs having been placed once at the shorter distance. The trainer's modest strike rate at Curragh continues to limit confidence. She is held up in her racing.
Prairie GirlKTB Fit 41/100
Prairie Girl is a fair mare who has won three times at this trip and arrives in decent form after two recent victories. She was well held on her only previous run at the Curragh though and now drops back from 6f having never raced on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is an unknown on a day when the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement. She is held up in her racing.
KTB verdict
Gazelle d'Or stands out as the KTB Selection. She has won three times at the Curragh from seven runs, is in decent form after two seconds this month, and drops back to a trip at which she has also been successful on three occasions. The first-time headgear may sharpen her up further and the combination of course record and recent form makes her the one to beat under the projected pace shape. Her main dangers are likely to come from Ipanema Queen, who has won twice at the track and handles good to firm, and Headmaster, who has course-winning form though the drop to 5f is a question. Rosie Frith could set the fractions and prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead.
KTB Selection Gazelle d'Or
This is the narrative read of the 2:50 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at the Curragh?
Gazelle d'Or has won three times at this track from seven runs.
How does the projected pace shape affect the race?
A lone leader with little pressure is expected, making the lead potentially hard for held-up horses to overcome.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Gazelle d'Or, The Highway Rat, Headmaster, Erosandpsyche, Chicago Call, Genesis, Cuban Grey and Prairie Girl are all in first-time headgear.
Who is most suited by good to firm ground?
Rosie Frith has won once from two runs on good to firm, while Ipanema Queen has a win and a place from four attempts on the surface.
What is the trainer and jockey combination record for the selection?
The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Curragh with an A/E of 1.18 from 247 runs, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 1.57 from 30 rides.
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