1:25 Downpatrick
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle over 2m2f185y at Downpatrick on good to yielding ground features a field of ten with little in the way of established hurdling form. The KTB numbers point to a race where recent maiden efforts and pedigree will be key, with the top-rated Brosna Queen holding a narrow edge on her latest showing. Trainer strike rates at the track add another layer, particularly for those with local success patterns.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runners among the principals and a generally even pace shape expected, the race is likely to be run at a sensible gallop early on. Several runners have shown a tendency to race prominently or mid-division, which should allow the field to bunch nicely into the home straight. The key question will be which of these lightly raced or inconsistent types can find the necessary improvement when the tempo lifts approaching the final flight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Brosna Queen KTB Selection57/100
- 2Everyday Life52/100
- 3Ardeen Joy52/100
- 4Miss Jocund47/100
- 5Hathaways Cottage44/100
- 6Spring Waltz44/100
- 7Bethpage Theatre43/100
- 8Rumble Demosa42/100
- 9Vroomvroomboo41/100
- 10Torque De Lune41/100
The contenders
Brosna Queen KTB Fit 57/100
Brosna Queen arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 57 and is taken to strike in this modest event. Her recent form of 75P6-5 shows a fifth on her latest start that suggests she is competitive at this level, and she holds an official rating that keeps her in the mix. Trainer S G Carey boasts a 45% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 2.09 from 11 runs, a strong local record that cannot be ignored. Jockey Ricky Doyle has a 7% strike rate at the track from 83 rides with an A/E of 0.73, while the mare has recorded one win from one run on good to yielding ground. At six years of age and without course form, she is expected to be prominent given her run-style and represents the yard's best chance in a race lacking depth.
Everyday Life KTB Fit 52/100
Everyday Life holds a KTB Fit score of 52 and comes into this on the back of form figures F/352-. At five years old she retains scope, though she has no course win to her name. Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue has a solid 13% strike rate with this jockey combination from 45 runs, an A/E of 1.53 and a healthy level stakes profit of +£54.50. The trainer's 11% strike rate at Downpatrick from 66 runs carries an A/E of 0.77, while jockey James Smith, claiming 5lb, has a 16% strike rate at the venue from 31 rides with an A/E of 1.39. By Affinisea, a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 1116 runners, she should handle the good to yielding conditions and is one of the more interesting each-way propositions.
Ardeen Joy KTB Fit 52/100
Ardeen Joy is rated 52 on the KTB Fit scale and has form figures P83-F. Gordon Elliott trains her and has a 19% strike rate at Downpatrick from a huge 908 runs with an A/E of 0.9, underlining his prowess at the track. Kevin Sexton takes the ride and holds an 11% strike rate here from 116 rides with an A/E of 0.98, while the yard and jockey combination shows 9% from 281 runs with an A/E of 0.81. The five-year-old is unproven on good to yielding ground having had no previous runs on it, which adds an element of risk. With no course form on record she will need to improve on what she has shown so far to trouble the selection.
Miss Jocund KTB Fit 47/100
Miss Jocund has a KTB Fit score of 47 and recent form of 335-9. She tries first-time headgear in this race as a possible aid to concentration. Henry De Bromhead's 16% strike rate at Downpatrick from 153 runs with an A/E of 0.88 gives the yard a respectable track record, and jockey Mike O'Connor has an 11% strike rate from 54 rides here with an A/E of 1.02. The yard and jockey have combined for 11% from 415 runs with an A/E of 0.81. She has had two runs on good to yielding without winning or placing, showing she has some experience of the surface but not yet made it count. At five she still has time on her side but will need to step up markedly from her latest effort.
Hathaways Cottage KTB Fit 44/100
Hathaways Cottage is an eight-year-old with a KTB Fit of 44 and form figures P4P5-9. Trainer D M Christie has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 128 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while jockey Carl Millar, claiming 5lb, has an 11% strike rate from 28 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.88. She has had one run on good to yielding ground without placing, indicating the surface is not entirely foreign to her. Without course form she will need to bounce back from a string of modest displays if she is to feature. Her experience may count for something in a race that could fall apart, but she rates below the main protagonists on the numbers.
The rest of the field
Spring WaltzKTB Fit 44/100
Spring Waltz has form F/2-1 and a KTB Fit of 44. Henry De Bromhead's 16% strike rate at Downpatrick from 153 runs with an A/E of 0.88 is positive, but jockey Kieren Buckley has a modest 5% strike rate from 57 rides here with an A/E of 0.41. By Shirocco, a sire with an 11% win rate from 9278 runners, she has no course win on record.
Bethpage TheatreKTB Fit 43/100
Bethpage Theatre has form F96 and a KTB Fit of 43. The Peter Fahey and Ethan O'Sullivan combination shows 20% from 10 runs with an A/E of 2.19 and +£1.00 LSP. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Downpatrick from 43 runs with an A/E of 0.8, but the jockey is 0% from 7 rides here. She has had one run on good to yielding without placing.
Rumble DemosaKTB Fit 42/100
Rumble Demosa is a five-year-old with a KTB Fit of 42. Trainer Eoin Griffin has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 37 runs with an A/E of 0.67, while jockey Gavin Brouder is 0% from 40 rides at the track. By Kingston Hill, whose progeny have a 9% win rate from 1506 runners, she has no course win on record.
VroomvroombooKTB Fit 41/100
Vroomvroomboo is an eight-year-old with form 35050- and a KTB Fit of 41. The James Andrew Fahey yard is 0% from 6 runs with this jockey, and the trainer has a 3% strike rate at Downpatrick from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.53. She has had four runs on good to yielding without placing and finished fourth in her only run here.
Torque De LuneKTB Fit 41/100
Torque De Lune has form 40-F and a KTB Fit of 41. John Joseph Hanlon is 0% from 30 runs with this jockey combination and has a 6% strike rate at Downpatrick from 257 runs with an A/E of 0.64. Jockey Harry Sexton is 0% from 20 rides at the track. She has had one run on good to yielding without placing.
KTB verdict
Brosna Queen is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of recent effort, local trainer record and surface suitability. Her fifth last time out gives her a solid platform in a race where few boast strong hurdling credentials, and the Carey's excellent 45% strike rate at Downpatrick adds considerable confidence. The main dangers are Everyday Life, who brings some placed form and a profitable trainer-jockey record, and Ardeen Joy, who represents the powerful Elliott yard despite ground doubts. Miss Jocund in first-time headgear and the experienced Hathaways Cottage are others who could improve the picture if the race develops favourably, but the selection is entitled to come out on top.
KTB Selection Brosna Queen
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:32 UTC, 13 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Brosna Queen | 6/1 | Bet Victor |
| Everyday Life | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Ardeen Joy | 9/4 | Bet365 |
| Miss Jocund | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Hathaways Cottage | 17/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Spring Waltz | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Bethpage Theatre | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Rumble Demosa | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Vroomvroomboo | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Torque De Lune | 40/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 1:25 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Downpatrick?
Brosna Queen, whose trainer S G Carey has a 45% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.09 from 11 runs.
Which runner is unproven on good to yielding ground?
Ardeen Joy, who has had no runs on good to yielding.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Miss Jocund.
Which mare has course form at Downpatrick?
Vroomvroomboo, who finished fourth on her only run here.
What is the best level-stakes profit shown by any trainer-jockey combination in the race?
Ian Patrick Donoghue and James Smith show +£54.50 LSP from their 6/45 record.
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