1:40 Carlisle
This Class 4 restricted maiden for two-year-olds over 5f182y at Carlisle on good to soft ground brings together a field of ten, mixing debutants with some lightly raced juveniles. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 52 and 41, underlining the modest level of the race and the limited data available on several runners. With a couple of previous course placings in the mix and several newcomers from yards that know the track, the contest looks open on paper despite one horse holding a short price.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a fairly even distribution of run-styles, though there is no dominant front-runner in the field. Several runners, including some of the more experienced ones, have shown they can race prominently or midfield, which should ensure a decent gallop over this sharp trip. The key question is whether any of the debutants can show the necessary speed from wide draws to challenge early, or if those with course experience can use their knowledge to dictate or track the pace effectively.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Redline KTB Selection52/100Redline is a newcomer from the Charlie Johnston yard which has a solid 16% strike rate at Carlisle from 63 runs.
- 2Mr De Maggs51/100Mr De Maggs is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 3Call Nicki49/100Call Nicki has shown steady progress in three runs, finishing second over course and distance last time.
- 4Right Up My Ali47/100Mark Walford has a solid 10% strike rate from 134 runs at Carlisle.
- 5Bluestone Lady46/100Bluestone Lady has shown ordinary form in four starts with a best of sixth in a similar race last time.
- 6King Of Persia46/100King Of Persia is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 10% strike rate at Carlisle from a huge sample of 1288 runners.
- 7Sunrise At Dawn45/100Sunrise At Dawn has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then eighth without suggesting she is ready to trouble stronger rivals in this company.
- 8Eleven Eighty Two45/100Eleven Eighty Two showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip on soft ground.
- 9Peggy's Lad44/100Peggy's Lad made just one start as a juvenile and showed little.
- 10Aurora Valkyrie41/100Aurora Valkyrie showed little at debut when finishing eighth of nine over this trip on soft ground.
The contenders
Redline KTB Fit 52/100
Redline represents the Charlie Johnston yard, which has a 16% strike rate at Carlisle from 63 runs, and is ridden by Connor Beasley. As a newcomer by Bayside Boy, whose progeny have a 32% overall win rate from 19 runners, the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which have not been supplied. With low data confidence this is very much an unknown quantity, though the trainer-jockey combination has produced a 17/91 record with an A/E of 1.24 and positive LSP of +£10.12. The wide draw in stall 9 adds a further layer of uncertainty on this good to soft surface where the yard has yet to record a course win with him. Overall he shapes as an interesting debutant in a race short on solid form.
Mr De Maggs KTB Fit 51/100
Mr De Maggs is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the limited data means the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background which offer no strong pointers either way. He is trained by Tony Culhane and Stella Barclay, who have no recorded runners at Carlisle, while Alex Jary, who has a 12% strike rate at the track from 17 rides, takes the mount. By Ubettabelieveit, whose overall win rate is 11% from 280 runners, he has no course win on record. The combination of no Carlisle trainer record and modest yard form overall leaves him with plenty to prove on debut from stall 10.
Call Nicki KTB Fit 49/100
Call Nicki has shown steady progress in three runs, finishing second over course and distance last time out. That placed effort counts as a positive on this track though the small sample means her level is still unclear. She drops in class here and is unproven on good to soft ground, having had no previous runs on it. Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate at Carlisle from 1288 runs while David Allan, with an 11% strike rate from 502 rides at the venue, is in the saddle. The trainer-jockey partnership shows an 11% strike rate overall from a huge sample with an A/E of 0.84.
Right Up My Ali KTB Fit 47/100
Right Up My Ali is a newcomer by A'Ali, whose progeny have a 10% overall win rate from 255 runners, and brings a breeze-up background that suggests speed. Mark Walford has a solid 10% strike rate at Carlisle from 134 runs, though the yard's juveniles have been quiet lately. This adds unknowns at this trip on good to soft ground, especially from a wide draw in stall 8. The trainer-jockey combination with Dougie Costello has a 7% strike rate from 284 runs with an A/E of 0.73. With no course win on record and low confidence on debut, he remains an unknown quantity.
Bluestone Lady KTB Fit 46/100
Bluestone Lady has shown ordinary form in four starts with a best of sixth in a similar race last time. She has twice been tried at today's trip without success and now tries first-time headgear. Stepping up in class, she has one run on good to soft ground with no win or place to show for it and no course form on record. The Burke yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Carlisle from 375 runs, though jockey William Pyle has managed only a 6% strike rate from 34 rides at the track. This leaves her with a bit to find on the balance of her form.
The rest of the field
King Of PersiaKTB Fit 46/100
King Of Persia is a newcomer from the Tim Easterby yard that operates at a 10% strike rate at Carlisle from a huge sample of 1288 runners. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background, resulting in low data confidence.
Sunrise At DawnKTB Fit 45/100
Sunrise At Dawn has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then eighth without suggesting she is ready to trouble stronger rivals in this company. Dropping in class, the yard records a modest 11% strike rate from 37 runs at Carlisle while Joanna Mason has limited experience here, making this very much a watching brief.
Eleven Eighty TwoKTB Fit 45/100
Eleven Eighty Two showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip on soft ground. Stepping up in class, the small sample makes it hard to gauge whether the good-to-soft surface will suit or if he can improve enough to trouble stronger types here, with Ben Haslam's modest 7% strike rate from 103 runs at Carlisle adding a note of caution.
Peggy's LadKTB Fit 44/100
Peggy's Lad made just one start as a juvenile and showed little. Stepping up in class, the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Carlisle from a large sample offers no encouragement here and with so little to go on this looks a difficult horse to assess.
Aurora ValkyrieKTB Fit 41/100
Aurora Valkyrie showed little at debut when finishing eighth of nine over this trip on soft ground. Dropping in class, the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Carlisle from a large sample offers no encouragement and with just one run in the book this is very much a watching brief.
KTB verdict
Redline is the KTB Selection in a race where the lack of depth and several unknowns make the outcome far from clear-cut. The selection brings the benefit of a yard with a solid record at Carlisle and a sire whose progeny have shown a strong overall win rate, though his lack of racecourse form means the assessment is based purely on limited background data. He is preferred to Call Nicki, whose course and distance second last time provides the clearest form in the field but who remains unproven on the ground. The main dangers are the other debutants, particularly Right Up My Ali who represents a trainer with a good Carlisle record, and those with modest placed efforts such as Eleven Eighty Two.
KTB Selection Redline
This is the narrative read of the 1:40 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course and distance placing in the field?
Call Nicki, who finished second over course and distance last time.
How many runners in the race are complete debutants?
Four runners are newcomers with no racecourse experience: Redline, Mr De Maggs, Right Up My Ali and King Of Persia.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Carlisle among those represented?
K R Burke with a 19% strike rate at Carlisle from 375 runs.
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time?
Bluestone Lady is wearing first-time headgear.
How many horses in the field are proven on good to soft ground?
Very few, with several noted as unproven on good to soft or having no wins or places on it, including Call Nicki, Eleven Eighty Two and Peggy's Lad.
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