1:50 York
This Class 2 Heritage Handicap over nearly a mile at York features a field of 20 three-year-olds on good to soft ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 55 and 62, indicating a competitive race where class rises, draws and ground suitability will play major parts. Overall the numbers point to a strong pace that could suit those capable of producing their effort late.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is likely to be run at a solid gallop from early on. Command The Stars, Zennor Storm and several others will be held up off that pace, while Outback Heat, Blue Courvoisier, Lion of Alba, Eklleem, Storming Point and Le Samourai are all inclined to race prominently. The key question is whether the pace collapses late, which would significantly favour the hold-up horses coming from off it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Command The Stars62/100Useful performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing second.
- 2Outback Heat KTB Selection62/100Useful performer who has won two of his four starts including at this trip.
- 3Exclusive Code60/100Useful performer who has won two of his three starts at this trip.
- 4St Anton59/100St Anton is a useful 3 year old with a solid recent record that includes two wins over today's trip.
- 5Zennor Storm55/100Useful performer who showed his best form when a close second at Newmarket last time.
- 6Blue Courvoisier54/100Blue Courvoisier is a useful performer who has shown strong form this year with a second at Newmarket and a win over today's trip.
- 7Lion of Alba52/100Useful performer who won over this trip earlier in the season but has been well held in stronger company since, including when dropping back from 1m2f last time…
- 8Krasimir52/100Fair performer who arrives in decent form after a win and two placed efforts in his last three starts.
- 9Eklleem52/100Fair performer who showed solid improvement when winning a 1m handicap here on his third start.
- 10Noelan Star52/100Useful performer who has won twice in five starts including at this trip.
- 11Welbury51/100Useful performer who has won three of four starts at this trip and arrives in strong form after a recent success.
- 12Ironwill49/100Ironwill is a fair 3 year old with solid recent form that includes a win and a second in his last two starts.
- 13Bearish49/100Bearish is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 4-121 and has won both starts at today's trip.
- 14Intense Vision47/100Useful sort who showed smart promise when winning his first two starts before finishing down the field in two stronger races this year.
- 15Daydreama46/100Daydreama is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at York, finishing second and third from four runs here.
- 16Jeddaal46/100Jeddaal is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 5-1314 and has already won on good to soft ground from two attempts.
- 17Storming Point45/100Storming Point is a fair 3 year old who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning.
- 18Le Samourai44/100Fair performer who showed clear improvement when winning a Newmarket maiden on his second start before finishing a solid second in a similar race at Goodwood la…
- 19Astrazar43/100Astrazar is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over this trip and at this track from just two visits.
- 20Start Me Up41/100Fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win sandwiched between some lesser efforts.
The contenders
Command The Stars KTB Fit 62/100
Command The Stars is a useful performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing second. He has won on good to soft ground and holds a solid record at today's trip with two wins from four starts. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at York from 34 runs tempers expectations somewhat. Darragh Keenan takes the ride with a 12% strike rate at the track from 17 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 6 and steps up in class off recent form figures of 7-774D.
Outback Heat KTB Fit 62/100
Outback Heat is a useful performer who has won two of his four starts including at this trip. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, though being drawn widest in stall 18 in a big field will test his ability to get a good position early. The trainer records a solid 11% strike rate at York from 37 runs. Kaiya Fraser is on board with an 8% strike rate at the track from 13 rides. He arrives with recent form figures of 1312 and is unproven on good to soft ground.
Exclusive Code KTB Fit 60/100
Exclusive Code is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts at this trip. Recent form of 44-101 shows clear progress and he arrives in form. The trainer records a modest 8% strike rate at York from 76 runs. James Doyle takes the ride with a 14% strike rate at the track from 327 rides. The going remains an unknown on just five career starts and he steps up in class from draw 11.
St Anton KTB Fit 59/100
St Anton is a useful three-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins over today's trip. He has handled good to soft ground before though without winning on it. The wide draw in stall 13 adds a clear negative. The Hannon yard posts an 11% strike rate at York from 349 runs and Pat Dobbs is a regular rider for them here with a 6% strike rate at the track from 67 rides. Recent form reads -31101 and he is usually held up.
Zennor Storm KTB Fit 55/100
Zennor Storm is a useful performer who showed his best form when a close second at Newmarket last time. He has already won over today's trip and has strong course connections through his trainer's 17% strike rate at York from 773 runs. Tom Marquand is aboard with a 14% strike rate at the track from 331 rides. Lightly raced with only one previous run at York where he finished fourth, he steps up in class with recent form figures of 1-9042 and is unproven on good to soft ground. Usually held up from draw 4.
The rest of the field
Blue CourvoisierKTB Fit 54/100
Blue Courvoisier is a useful performer who has shown strong form this year with a second at Newmarket and a win over today's trip. He drops back from 1m1f having looked stretched last time, which should suit him better, though the small overall sample means the good-to-soft ground remains an unknown. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at York from 181 runs is a negative and he steps up in class as a front-runner from draw 5.
Lion of AlbaKTB Fit 52/100
Lion of Alba is a useful performer who won over this trip earlier in the season but has been well held in stronger company since, including when dropping back from 1m2f last time. Stall 14 looks no help on a track where the trainer has a modest 7% strike rate from 158 runs. He is a front-runner and the overall profile suggests he will find a few too good again.
KrasimirKTB Fit 52/100
Krasimir is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after a win and two placed efforts in his last three starts. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip earlier this year though he is unproven on good to soft ground and makes his first start at York. First-time headgear is now applied and he is held up from draw 10.
EklleemKTB Fit 52/100
Eklleem is a fair performer who showed solid improvement when winning a 1m handicap here on his third start. He has already scored at today's trip and is well drawn to get a nice tow into the race from stall 15. The Haggas yard posts a 17% strike rate at York from 773 runs while William Buick is an obvious plus on board. He steps up in class as a front-runner.
Noelan StarKTB Fit 52/100
Noelan Star is a useful performer who has won twice in five starts including at this trip. He has shown strong form at this track though the yard's record here is modest. The trip suits and the draw looks reasonable though the small overall sample means ground preferences remain unclear. He steps up in class.
WelburyKTB Fit 51/100
Welbury is a useful performer who has won three of four starts at this trip and arrives in strong form after a recent success. First time at York and unproven on good to soft are unknowns that could go either way. The trainer records an 8% strike rate from 93 runs here and he steps up in class as a hold-up horse from the wide draw in stall 19.
IronwillKTB Fit 49/100
Ironwill is a fair three-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and a second in his last two starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while he is unproven on good to soft ground. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 127 runs at York and this is his first visit to the track. He is held up from draw 17.
BearishKTB Fit 49/100
Bearish is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 4-121 and has won both starts at today's trip. He is well drawn in stall 2 and has strong course connections through his trainer. The yard's 8% strike rate from 245 runs at York is modest while the small sample on this going leaves suitability unknown. He steps up in class and is held up.
Intense VisionKTB Fit 47/100
Intense Vision is a useful sort who showed smart promise when winning his first two starts before finishing down the field in two stronger races this year. Drawn widest of all and has failed to land a blow at this trip in three attempts. The trainer's tiny York sample prevents any meaningful read on the yard here and he steps up in class as a hold-up horse.
DaydreamaKTB Fit 46/100
Daydreama is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at York, finishing second and third from four runs here. She has also placed on good to soft ground and at today's trip, though she remains winless in those conditions. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track is a negative given the volume of runners sent here and she steps up in class as a hold-up horse.
JeddaalKTB Fit 46/100
Jeddaal is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 5-1314 and has already won on good to soft ground from two attempts. He has course experience here but could only manage sixth on his sole visit, while the yard's modest 9% strike rate from 170 runs at York offers no particular edge. The trip suits having produced one win from four starts, though the wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative. He is held up.
Storming PointKTB Fit 45/100
Storming Point is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning. He has been placed at today's trip on one of his two attempts and from stall 9 he should get a decent pace to chase. The yard has no recorded runners at York so their record here is unknown while Rob Hornby has a modest strike rate at the track from a small sample. He steps up in class as a front-runner.
Le SamouraiKTB Fit 44/100
Le Samourai is a fair performer who showed clear improvement when winning a Newmarket maiden on his second start before finishing a solid second in a similar race at Goodwood last time. Stall one could be a help on this track and the placed effort at today's trip is a positive. The trainer continues in solid form at York with a 13% strike rate from 344 runs and he steps up in class as a front-runner.
AstrazarKTB Fit 43/100
Astrazar is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. He showed his best recent effort when second last time out and holds solid course connections. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at York is a negative while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground. He steps up in class as a hold-up horse from the wide draw in stall 20.
Start Me UpKTB Fit 41/100
Start Me Up is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win sandwiched between some lesser efforts. First time at York and unproven on good to soft ground adds uncertainty while the step back up to 7f looks a neutral move at best given modest efforts at the trip so far. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 62 runs at the track is another negative and he is held up.
KTB verdict
Outback Heat is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who has won two of his four starts including at this trip, and the trainer's solid record at York adds to his claims. The wide draw will test his ability to secure a good early position as a front-runner, but he is taken to handle the strong pace. Main dangers include Command The Stars, who has placed here before and likes the ground, Exclusive Code who arrives in form, and the strongly connected Zennor Storm. St Anton and several of the hold-up types could also be suited if the pace collapses late as expected.
KTB Selection Outback Heat
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course form at York including a win?
Astrazar has won here from two visits.
How many principals are stepping up in class?
Command The Stars, Exclusive Code and Zennor Storm are stepping up in class.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at York among those with big samples?
William Haggas has a 17% strike rate at York from 773 runs.
Which horses are unproven on good to soft ground?
Outback Heat, Exclusive Code, Zennor Storm, Blue Courvoisier, Krasimir, Noelan Star, Welbury, Ironwill, Bearish, Intense Vision, Le Samourai, Astrazar and Start Me Up are unproven on good to soft ground.
Who rides the selection and what is their York strike rate?
Kaiya Fraser rides Outback Heat and has an 8% strike rate at York from 13 rides.
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