1:55 Ascot
This Class 2 Heritage Handicap over the straight five furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together a field of 16 useful sprinters, many with previous experience at the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Schrodinger's Cat on 65, with Havana Hurricane, Annaf, Run Boy Run and Trefor all rated in the mid-50s, underlining the competitive nature of the race. Several runners arrive in first-time headgear while others step up or drop in class, and the official ratings, recent form and course records suggest a race that could be decided by draw, run-style and which horse finds its best form on the day.
How the race shapes up
With a good mix of prominent racers and hold-up performers in the line-up, the pace shape looks to be on the strong side for a straight track. Several of the principals, including Schrodinger's Cat, Annaf and Trefor, tend to race prominently or in mid-division, which should ensure an honest gallop. The key question is whether the leaders can get away on the far rail or whether those drawn higher, like the selection in stall 13, can overcome the disadvantage and find a rhythm without using up too much energy early.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Schrodinger's Cat KTB Selection65/100Useful performer who has been knocking at the door this year with places in three of his last four starts and a win at this trip.
- 2Havana Hurricane62/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 3Annaf57/100Useful performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has two wins over today's 5f trip.
- 4Run Boy Run55/100Useful performer who has been placed at this track without winning.
- 5Trefor55/100Trefor is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts including a heavy defeat at this track.
- 6Dubai Bling55/100Dubai Bling is a useful performer who has won twice this year but has been hit and miss, finishing down the field on his only previous visit to Ascot.
- 7Toca Madera54/100Toca Madera is a useful performer who has shown enough in better races to remain competitive at this level.
- 8Adrestia54/100Adrestia is a useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 9Fandom51/100Fandom is a useful performer on his day and arrives in decent nick judged on recent form figures.
- 10Regal Envoy49/100Useful performer who has won ten times over this trip.
- 11Behike48/100Behike is a useful 3yo with a solid recent record of two wins from four starts but has twice failed to fire at this track.
- 12Mesaafi47/100Mesaafi is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track with placed efforts on his last two visits.
- 13Brosay47/100Brosay is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 14King Of Light47/100Useful performer who has won three times at this trip but looks vulnerable dropped to 5f for the first time in a while.
- 15Glamorous Breeze46/100Useful performer who has run well without winning at this track on three of her last seven visits.
- 16Ancient State45/100Ancient State is a fair performer who has won four of his eight starts at this trip and showed his best form when landing two of his last three races.
The contenders
Schrodinger's Cat KTB Fit 65/100
Schrodinger's Cat is a useful performer who has been knocking at the door this year with places in three of his last four starts and a win at this trip. He acts on good to firm having been placed both starts on it and the yard has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Ascot from eight runners. Stall 13 is a clear negative on this straight track while the jockey has only four rides here so far. The three-year-old's recent form figures of 228312 show consistency at this level and he remains competitive on official figures. Trainer Grant Tuer and jockey Oliver Stammers combine with a 67/547 (12%) record and A/E 0.91, though the trainer's local record is the stronger pointer. Overall he shapes as a major player if he can negate the wide draw.
Havana Hurricane KTB Fit 62/100
Havana Hurricane is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Has shown some respectable form this year but has been a bit hit and miss, and first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Ascot. The three-year-old's course win from two runs and one win from three on good to firm underline his suitability to the conditions. Recent form of 46-303 suggests he can be thereabouts when things fall right. Eve Johnson Houghton and Jack Mitchell have respective 9% and 12% strike rates at the track, giving the partnership a positive local profile. He looks sure to go well if the headgear has the desired effect.
Annaf KTB Fit 57/100
Annaf is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has two wins over today's 5f trip. Recent form has been patchy with a string of lesser efforts though he did finish third in a similar race here in July. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Ascot is a negative while the jockey has a solid 10% record at the track. The seven-year-old's course-and-distance record is a clear asset in a race of this nature. His official figures and recent placings keep him in the mix despite the inconsistency. Michael Appleby and Cieren Fallon team up with modest overall figures at Ascot, but the jockey's 10% strike rate from 128 rides offers some encouragement.
Run Boy Run KTB Fit 55/100
Run Boy Run is a useful performer who has been placed at this track without winning. Drops back to his winning 5f trip having last run over 6f and first-time headgear is now fitted, though the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Ascot and the jockey's poor 2% record here are both negatives. Placed once from six runs on good to firm. The five-year-old's placed effort at Ascot last season shows he handles the track, and the drop in trip could sharpen him up. Recent form of 671200 includes a win at the trip earlier in the campaign. Richard Spencer and George Wood have limited joy at the venue, which tempers enthusiasm, yet the headgear adds an unknown that could improve matters.
Trefor KTB Fit 55/100
Trefor is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts including a heavy defeat at this track. He drops back to his winning distance today and has a solid record on good to firm ground yet the wide draw in stall 16 adds to his task. Trainer Charles Hills has a modest 7 percent strike rate here from 329 runs while jockey Callum Rodriguez posts a stronger 10 percent from 50 rides. The five-year-old's four wins from 11 starts on good to firm provide hope if he can bounce back. His sole previous run at Ascot was poor, and the wide berth on the straight course is far from ideal. Overall he needs to show more than he has managed of late.
The rest of the field
Dubai BlingKTB Fit 55/100
Dubai Bling is a useful performer who has won twice this year but has been hit and miss, finishing down the field on his only previous visit to Ascot. He drops back to 5f today having been placed without winning at the trip in the past, while first-time headgear is now fitted. The yard and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate here.
Toca MaderaKTB Fit 54/100
Toca Madera is a useful performer who has shown enough in better races to remain competitive at this level. He has won over today's trip but his record on good to firm is only modest and his six runs at Ascot have produced no wins or places. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate here adds to the negatives.
AdrestiaKTB Fit 54/100
Adrestia is a useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. She has shown consistent placed form on good to firm ground and her recent efforts do not look too bad in context. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
FandomKTB Fit 51/100
Fandom is a useful performer on his day and arrives in decent nick judged on recent form figures. He has been well beaten both starts at Ascot though and has failed to win or place in four runs at this trip. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
Regal EnvoyKTB Fit 49/100
Regal Envoy is a useful performer who has won ten times over this trip. Drops back from 6f with first-time headgear and has a solid record on good to firm, though he was well held on his only previous run at Ascot. Trainer's modest 6 percent strike rate here and the jockey's blank record from six rides add to the negatives.
BehikeKTB Fit 48/100
Behike is a useful 3yo with a solid recent record of two wins from four starts but has twice failed to fire at this track. The wide draw in stall 12 adds to the difficulty on a stiff 5f and the yard's modest 3% strike rate at Ascot is another negative. Trip remains a question mark after just one unplaced run at the distance.
MesaafiKTB Fit 47/100
Mesaafi is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track with placed efforts on his last two visits. He has won over today's trip but his record on good to firm is only modest with one success from eight starts. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard has yet to strike at Ascot from five runners.
BrosayKTB Fit 47/100
Brosay is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has also won at Ascot from five runs here though his recent form is ordinary and he now drops back from 6f. First-time headgear is another unknown for a horse who has run 24 times in the last year.
King Of LightKTB Fit 47/100
King Of Light is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip but looks vulnerable dropped to 5f for the first time in a while. Has run three times at Ascot without placing and the yard's modest 4% strike-rate here adds little encouragement. Jockey is also 0-8 at the track.
Glamorous BreezeKTB Fit 46/100
Glamorous Breeze is a useful performer who has run well without winning at this track on three of her last seven visits. She has a solid record on good to firm ground and has won at this trip in the past though she is now 8 and has been a bit below her best on her last two starts. First-time headgear is tried while both trainer and jockey have yet to strike at Ascot.
Ancient StateKTB Fit 45/100
Ancient State is a fair performer who has won four of his eight starts at this trip and showed his best form when landing two of his last three races. He handles good to firm ground and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his recent consistency. The wide draw at Ascot on his first run here adds a question mark while the trainer has no previous runners at the track.
KTB verdict
Schrodinger's Cat is the KTB Selection and has the strongest recent profile of the principals, with three placings from his last four starts and a win over the trip. He acts on the ground, his yard has a good record at Ascot and he remains competitive on the figures. The wide draw in stall 13 is the main concern on this straight track, yet his prominent run-style could see him overcome that if the pace is truly run. Main dangers are Havana Hurricane, who has course form and the benefit of first-time headgear plus strong local trainer and jockey statistics, and Annaf, whose two course wins and placed effort in a similar race last July keep him firmly in the picture despite patchy recent form. Run Boy Run and Trefor cannot be entirely dismissed if the headgear and trip respectively spark improvement.
KTB Selection Schrodinger's Cat
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent record at Ascot among the principals?
Annaf has won twice at this track from six runs and finished third in a similar race here in July.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
First-time headgear is applied to Havana Hurricane, Run Boy Run, Dubai Bling, Adrestia, Regal Envoy, Mesaafi, Brosay, Glamorous Breeze and Ancient State.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Ascot from the principals?
Schrodinger's Cat's trainer has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 2.1 from eight runners.
What is the course record of the selection Schrodinger's Cat?
Schrodinger's Cat has no course form on record.
Which runner has won the most times over 5f?
Regal Envoy has won ten times over this trip.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies