2:27 Ascot
The Juddmonte Summer Mile Stakes is a Group 2 contest over just short of a mile on good to firm ground at Ascot. An eight-runner field lines up featuring several smart performers with established form at this level, though the KTB numbers point to a fairly narrow top end with More Thunder heading the Fit scores on 74. Recent placed efforts in strong company and proven course form give the principals a clear edge on paper over those further down the rankings.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is on the steady side with no obvious front-runner declared. More Thunder from stall one and Holloway Boy in two are both likely to be ridden prominently, while Zeus Olympios and Docklands should track the pace from draws three and five. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for those coming from off the pace, such as Jonquil from the widest draw, or whether it will play into the hands of those towards the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1More Thunder KTB Selection74/100High-class performer who has finished second in both starts at this track and is proven on good to firm ground with two wins from four runs.
- 2Zeus Olympios65/100Smart performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and looks suited by good to firm ground with two wins from three runs.
- 3Docklands64/100Docklands is a smart performer who has won three times at this track from nine runs and also has four wins from eighteen starts at today's trip.
- 4Holloway Boy60/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 5Jonquil53/100Smart performer who has already won over this trip and at this track.
- 6Seagulls Eleven52/100Smart performer who has won two of his last three starts and looks well up to this level on his best figures.
- 7No Lunch52/100Smart performer who arrives on the back of four straight wins and has already won six times at today's trip.
- 8Naqeeb48/100Smart performer who has placed twice from four runs at Ascot and looks to have solid course knowledge.
The contenders
More Thunder KTB Fit 74/100
More Thunder is a high-class performer who has finished second in both starts at this track and is proven on good to firm ground with two wins from four runs. His recent form of 114-22 shows consistent placed efforts at this level though he has yet to win over today's trip in two attempts. William Haggas has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Ascot from a large sample of 854 runs while Cieren Fallon operates at a 10 percent strike rate from 128 rides here. Drawn in stall one he should be able to secure a good early position and his overall profile suggests he is the one to beat.
Zeus Olympios KTB Fit 65/100
Zeus Olympios is a smart performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and looks suited by good to firm ground with two wins from three runs. He has been consistent in strong company this year yet only managed fourth on his one visit to Ascot. K R Burke has a 10 percent strike rate at the track from 294 runs while Sam James has a 6 percent strike rate from 32 rides here. From draw three he should be able to track the leaders and his proven ability at the distance makes him a major player once more.
Docklands KTB Fit 64/100
Docklands is a smart performer who has won three times at this track from nine runs and also has four wins from eighteen starts at today's trip. He has won twice on good to firm from eight runs and arrives in decent form having won one of his last three starts. The first-time headgear is an unknown but Harry Eustace's 19 percent strike rate at Ascot from 43 runs is solid while George Wood's 2 percent record from 44 rides is poor. His course record gives him a clear foothold in the race and he cannot be dismissed.
Holloway Boy KTB Fit 60/100
Holloway Boy is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been a bit up and down with a string of placed efforts but no win since last year, and he has only one victory from ten runs on good to firm. K R Burke and Callum Rodriguez both have solid rather than sparkling records here with the trainer on 10 percent from 294 runs and the jockey on 10 percent from 50 rides. Stepping up in class from stall two he will need to find a bit more but his course-and-distance success means he cannot be entirely ruled out.
The rest of the field
JonquilKTB Fit 53/100
Jonquil is a smart performer who has already won over this trip and at this track. He has won twice on good to firm ground from three attempts and looks well placed from stall eight, though Andrew Balding's modest 9 percent strike rate at Ascot from 970 runs and Colin Keane's 5 percent record from 113 rides here temper expectations.
Seagulls ElevenKTB Fit 52/100
Seagulls Eleven is a smart performer who has won two of his last three starts and looks well up to this level on his best figures. He has already won twice over today's trip though he was well held when tried here over 1m last season and drops back in distance now. Hugo Palmer and David Probert both operate at a 7 percent strike rate at Ascot from large samples.
No LunchKTB Fit 52/100
No Lunch is a smart performer who arrives on the back of four straight wins and has already won six times at today's trip. First run at Ascot is neutral given the high-class level shown elsewhere while the trainer's small sample here with a 0 percent strike rate from four runs prevents any strong read. Maxime Guyon has a solid 11 percent strike rate at the track from 27 rides and the unproven good-to-firm ground is the main unknown.
NaqeebKTB Fit 48/100
Naqeeb is a smart performer who has placed twice from four runs at Ascot and looks to have solid course knowledge. He drops back from 1m2f to 7f today having failed to win in his only previous try at the distance while his record on good to firm is placed but winless from eight starts. Julie Camacho strikes at 7 percent here from 27 runs and Ryan Sexton at 8 percent from 12 rides.
KTB verdict
More Thunder stands out as the KTB Selection. He has run to a high level when finishing second on both previous visits to Ascot, acts well on good to firm ground, and his recent form of 114-22 underlines his consistency at this level. The combination of his course record, the trainer's respectable strike rate here and a favourable draw should see him go close. Zeus Olympios and Docklands, with their own strong claims at the trip and track, are the most obvious dangers, while Holloway Boy could outrun his odds if the pace falls his way.
KTB Selection More Thunder
This is the narrative read of the 2:27 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Ascot?
Docklands has won here three times from nine runs.
How many wins has More Thunder recorded on good to firm ground?
Two wins from four runs on good to firm.
What is the main unknown for No Lunch in this race?
The unproven good-to-firm ground is the main unknown as he has had no runs on it.
Which runner is stepping up in class?
Holloway Boy is stepping up in class.
How many wins has Seagulls Eleven had at today's trip?
He has already won twice over today's trip.
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