2:00 Ascot
This Class 4 apprentice handicap over the straight mile at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together eight fair performers, several of whom are making their first appearance at the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Paladin heading the numbers on 70, followed by Chalk Mountain, Helm Rock and Newfangled all on 58 or 59. Recent form is mixed across the field and several runners sport first-time headgear, while the trainer and jockey statistics at Ascot vary markedly and will play a significant part in the outcome.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent runners and no obvious front-runner among the principals, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on. Paladin and Newfangled can race prominently from their middle draws, while Helm Rock from stall one and Mythical Guest are also inclined to be forward. The key question is whether the race develops into a sprint for the line or if the leaders are allowed an easy time, in which case those with a bit of toe from off the pace could be advantaged.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Paladin KTB Selection70/100Paladin is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after a recent win and has a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins from four starts.
- 2Chalk Mountain59/100Fair performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level.
- 3Helm Rock58/100Fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but looks vulnerable on his Ascot record of two runs without a victory.
- 4Newfangled58/100Fair performer who has won four times over this trip from 18 attempts and also holds a solid record on good to firm ground with a win and five places from six r…
- 5Best Rate55/100Fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and steps up from 7f to 1m today.
- 6Clouds Hill53/100Fair performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts and showed useful form when winning at this level earlier this season.
- 7Mythical Guest47/100Mythical Guest is a fair performer with solid placed efforts at Ascot including two seconds and a third from four runs here.
- 8Rising Force44/100Modest performer who has won six times at this trip but is 0-6 on his last six starts at this level.
The contenders
Paladin KTB Fit 70/100
Paladin is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after a recent win. He has a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins from four starts and steps up to 1m today having won at the trip before, although his last run was over 7f. The trainer holds an 18 percent strike rate at Ascot from 17 runs while the jockey is 10 percent from 10 rides here. Drawn in stall seven, he is expected to race prominently. KTB rates him the top selection on a Fit score of 70.
Chalk Mountain KTB Fit 59/100
Chalk Mountain is a fair performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level. He has run just once at Ascot and finished a respectable fourth, while he has placed on good to firm ground and at this trip though without winning. First-time headgear is now applied and the small-sample trainer and jockey records at the track add uncertainty. From draw eight he is likely to track the leaders. His KTB Fit score of 59 places him second in the numbers.
Helm Rock KTB Fit 58/100
Helm Rock is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but looks vulnerable on his Ascot record of two runs without a victory. He has shown nothing on good to firm ground in four attempts and the trainer's modest 2 percent strike rate here adds little encouragement. First-time headgear is the main positive in a race where he needs to bounce back from a mixed recent run of form. Drawn in stall one he should be to the fore early. He carries a KTB Fit score of 58.
Newfangled KTB Fit 58/100
Newfangled is a fair performer who has won four times over this trip from 18 attempts and also holds a solid record on good to firm ground with a win and five places from six runs. This is his first run at Ascot today after 30 starts elsewhere while the trainer's 6 percent strike rate from 116 runs here is modest. First-time headgear is now applied and he drops in class. From draw three he can take a handy position. His KTB Fit score reads 58.
The rest of the field
Best RateKTB Fit 55/100
Best Rate is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and steps up from 7f to 1m today. He has placed once from six runs at this trip and shown ability on good to firm ground though remains without a win on it. The trainer has a modest 7 percent strike rate at Ascot from a large sample while the jockey has struck at 17 percent from a small number of rides here. KTB gives him a Fit score of 55.
Clouds HillKTB Fit 53/100
Clouds Hill is a fair performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts and showed useful form when winning at this level earlier this season. He has handled good to firm ground well with a win and two places from three starts but his recent efforts have been poor. The trainer's modest 4 percent strike rate at Ascot from 81 runs is a concern while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. His KTB Fit score is 53.
Mythical GuestKTB Fit 47/100
Mythical Guest is a fair performer with solid placed efforts at Ascot including two seconds and a third from four runs here. He has shown his best form over this trip without winning and acts on good to firm ground though his recent efforts have been poor. The yard's modest 5 percent strike rate at the track and the jockey's poor record add to the negatives. KTB rates him 47.
Rising ForceKTB Fit 44/100
Rising Force is a modest performer who has won six times at this trip but is 0-6 on his last six starts at this level. He handles good to firm ground and has shown bits of form this year though nothing standout. The trainer has a modest 3 percent strike rate at Ascot while the jockey fares better with an 8 percent record from limited rides here. He is rated 44 by KTB.
KTB verdict
Paladin stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer in decent recent order, he has a proven record on good to firm ground, has won over the trip before, and is backed by positive trainer and jockey figures at Ascot. The selection can make the most of his prominent run style in what may prove a steadily run affair. The main dangers are Newfangled, who drops in class with first-time headgear and a strong jockey record at the track, and Chalk Mountain, who showed enough on his sole Ascot run and now tries headgear. Helm Rock cannot be entirely dismissed if the headgear sparks a revival.
KTB Selection Paladin
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Paladin has the highest KTB Fit Score on 70.
How many times has Helm Rock been placed at Ascot?
Helm Rock has been placed once from two runs at Ascot, finishing third on one occasion.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Chalk Mountain, Helm Rock and Newfangled are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Ascot among the principals?
Olivia Tubb has a 33 percent strike rate at Ascot from three rides.
Has Mythical Guest won over this 1m trip?
Mythical Guest has shown his best form over this trip without winning.
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