2:35 Ascot
This Class 3 Knight Frank Conditions Stakes over six furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together a field of seven two-year-olds, most of whom arrive with just a single run under their belts. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Flann Sunna on 54, with Persazz, Peaceful Warrior and Mysterious Times all in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining how open the race appears on paper. Stepping up or dropping in class features for several runners while the lack of course form across the board adds an extra layer of guesswork to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
With three recent winners and several debutants in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side early, though Washington Royale and Keep Grating showed forward tendencies on debut and could press on from their middle to wide draws. Flann Sunna from stall three and Mysterious Times from two are likely to be ridden for a position just off the pace, while the wider-drawn Peaceful Warrior may settle towards the rear before making a move. The key question is whether any of the debut winners can translate that promise up or down in class on just their second start, or whether the more experienced Mysterious Times can finally break his duck.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Flann Sunna KTB Selection54/100Flann Sunna won his only start over this trip on good to firm ground.
- 2Persazz52/100Persazz won his only start over this trip on his debut.
- 3Peaceful Warrior52/100Peaceful Warrior won his only start over this trip.
- 4Mysterious Times48/100Mysterious Times has shown fair form in two runs so far, finishing third on both occasions.
- 5Washington Royale47/100Washington Royale showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip and should improve with the experience.
- 6Keep Grating44/100Keep Grating showed only modest pace before finishing sixth on debut over this trip.
- 7No More Pino39/100Lightly raced colt who has shown little in two starts at this trip so far.
The contenders
Flann Sunna KTB Fit 54/100
Flann Sunna impressed when winning his sole start over this trip on good to firm ground, showing the requisite speed and attitude. The Simon and Ed Crisford yard carries an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 91 runs which is a negative, though Jack Mitchell brings a more respectable 11% record from 81 rides here. He steps up in class now having shown he handles the surface, yet with only one run on the board firm conclusions remain risky. From a favourable draw of three he should be able to get a nice position early. The KTB Fit score of 54 marks him out as the top-rated in the race.
Persazz KTB Fit 52/100
Persazz got off the mark at the first attempt when winning over this trip on debut, suggesting he possesses the necessary early speed. William Knight’s record at Ascot stands at a modest 6% from 137 runs while Luke Morris is 7% from 270 rides at the track, so neither brings strong course statistics. The colt remains unproven on good to firm ground and steps up in class with only one run to his name, meaning the form must be treated with caution. Drawn in stall one he should at least have no excuses from the gate. His KTB Fit of 52 keeps him firmly in the mix.
Peaceful Warrior KTB Fit 52/100
Peaceful Warrior made a winning start when scoring over today’s trip, displaying plenty of promise in the process. Kevin Ryan’s 6% strike rate at Ascot from 385 runs is modest, although Jamie Spencer’s 10% record from 920 rides at the venue offers some encouragement. Like several rivals he is unproven on good to firm and drops in class on just his second start, so the form has to be treated cautiously. From draw five he may be ridden with a little patience. The KTB Fit score of 52 leaves him right in the thick of the argument.
Mysterious Times KTB Fit 48/100
Mysterious Times has shown fair form in two runs to date, finishing third on both occasions without yet managing to break his maiden. He steps up in class having been unable to win at this six-furlong trip so far and has one run on good to firm that brought no win or place. Charlie Appleby’s 15% strike rate at Ascot from 391 runs is solid, while Kieran Shoemark’s 9% from 248 rides here is respectable. Lightly raced overall, the colt remains open to improvement. His KTB Fit of 48 sees him rated just behind the top trio.
The rest of the field
Washington RoyaleKTB Fit 47/100
Washington Royale showed fair pace when finishing fourth over this trip on debut and is expected to improve with experience. The yard’s modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from 162 runs is partially offset by Ray Dawson’s solid 11% record from 83 rides here, though he remains unproven on good to firm and everything else is unknown on just the one run.
Keep GratingKTB Fit 44/100
Keep Grating displayed only modest pace before finishing sixth on debut over today’s trip. Richard Hannon’s 7% strike rate at Ascot from 755 runs and Pat Dobbs’s matching 7% from 377 rides here are both modest, and with just one run on the clock and one previous effort on good to firm that brought no win or place this remains very much an unknown quantity.
No More PinoKTB Fit 39/100
No More Pino has shown little in two starts at this trip so far and now tries first-time headgear. Both trainer and jockey have very small samples at Ascot which adds uncertainty, and with only two career runs the form is too thin to read with any confidence.
KTB verdict
Flann Sunna is the KTB Selection. He arrives with a win on his only start over the trip on good to firm ground, which matches the expected conditions, and holds the highest KTB Fit score in the race. The yard and jockey’s Ascot records are mixed but not terminal, and the draw looks kind. His main dangers are the other two debut winners, Persazz and Peaceful Warrior, both rated 52 on Fit and open to any amount of improvement, while Mysterious Times brings the most experience even if he has yet to win.
KTB Selection Flann Sunna
This is the narrative read of the 2:35 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Flann Sunna on 54/100.
How many of these runners are stepping up in class?
Four: Flann Sunna, Persazz, Mysterious Times and No More Pino.
Which jockey has the best Ascot strike rate among the principals?
Jack Mitchell with an 11% strike rate at Ascot.
Who is the only runner to have raced on good to firm ground and won?
Flann Sunna, with one win from one run on good to firm.
What is the pace shape outlook for the race?
Expected to be on the steady side early with a mix of forward and hold-up runners.
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