2:00 Killarney
This 2m100y maiden hurdle division at Killarney on good ground features an 18-runner field where experience is patchy and several runners arrive with questions to answer. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Sea Eagle heading the list on 59, closely followed by Macoo, Certosa, Je Suis Celebre and Le Vent d'Ex. Trainer strike rates at the track vary markedly, from Mullins's 22% to several yards operating below 10%, while the lack of a confirmed leader sets a tactical tone.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in the field the pace is expected to be steady rather than searching, making this a tactical affair in which handy positioning should prove advantageous. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, though a couple prefer to settle in midfield. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken off this predicted pace or whether the race will fall to something that gets a nice tow into the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sea Eagle KTB Selection59/100Sea Eagle is a smart performer with solid recent form including a second on his latest start.
- 2Macoo58/100Macoo is an 8-year-old debutant with no recent racecourse experience.
- 3Certosa57/100Has shown bits of ability in maiden hurdles but has failed to build on that in two recent chase starts, falling at the last on the latest.
- 4Je Suis Celebre56/100Je Suis Celebre steps up markedly in trip from 1m to 2m100y today which asks a fresh question of him.
- 5Le Vent d'Ex55/100Lightly raced with just two completed runs and a recent pulled-up effort so the form is hard to weigh up.
- 6Molto Amichi54/100Has won over hurdles here from just one start and has placed form on good ground.
- 7Through The Storm51/100Through The Storm has shown only modest form in three runs at this trip and looks short of the standard needed here.
- 8Lincoln Mill51/100Lincoln Mill showed minor promise when second on debut but has been well held in both starts since.
- 9Marilyns Poet50/100Marilyns Poet has had just one run in the last year so the form picture is thin and needs treating with caution.
- 10Deeter49/100Deeter has only one run to his name and was pulled up on debut, leaving him very hard to weigh up.
- 11Golden Handshake48/100Golden Handshake has only seven career runs and showed little when unseating last time out.
- 12Cast A Cold Eye47/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 5-6 on his latest start.
- 13Kauto Empress47/100Kauto Empress has been well beaten in both starts so far and remains lightly raced with only two runs on the board.
- 14Ikalimix46/100Useful performer who has shown enough in the past to be taken seriously but has been disappointing on his last two completed starts.
- 15Approval46/100Approval has shown very little so far with two modest efforts this season and no win or place from 14 career starts.
- 16Minella Moon Shine45/100Lightly raced with only two completed starts this season and a fall on debut, so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence.
- 17Ealu Tapa44/100Ealu Tapa won on good ground last time but that was over a shorter trip and the form is hard to weigh up given just two career starts.
- 18Champagne Diamond43/100Lightly raced with only two runs this year and a modest recent form line of 55/0-8.
The contenders
Sea Eagle KTB Fit 59/100
Sea Eagle is a smart performer with solid recent form that includes a second on his latest start. He possesses a good record on this ground, with a win and three places from eight runs, though he drops back in trip today having failed to win in two previous attempts at 2m. The yard has a respectable 13% strike rate at Killarney from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.12, while the jockey remains winless from 14 rides here with an A/E of 0. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Sea Eagle will need the steadily-run race to unfold in his favour. Recent form figures of 26U-2 add weight to his claims in a race where class could count.
Macoo KTB Fit 58/100
Macoo is an 8-year-old debutant with no recent racecourse experience, so the pedigree and sales background provide the only real clues. Any conclusions must remain tentative given the low data confidence. Trainer Paul O'Flynn has a strong 21% strike rate at Killarney from 28 runs with an A/E of 1.86, while jockey Darragh O'Keeffe records a solid 16% strike rate at the track from 189 rides with an A/E of 1.1. The overall sire win rate stands at 9% from 2892 runners. With the steadily-run pace likely to suit those who can quicken, Macoo's market position in a field of 18 will be informative.
Certosa KTB Fit 57/100
Certosa has shown bits of ability in maiden hurdles but has failed to build on that in two recent chase starts, falling at the last on the latest. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Killarney from 15 runs with an A/E of 3, while Williamson is operating at 15% from 20 rides here with an A/E of 1.15. The trip looks a possible weakness after five attempts at this distance without success, and the going remains an unknown on only seven career runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be waiting to pounce if the steady pace allows. Recent form of 640-5F underlines the inconsistency.
Je Suis Celebre KTB Fit 56/100
Je Suis Celebre steps up markedly in trip from 1m to 2m100y today, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard posts a 9% strike rate from 126 runs at Killarney with an A/E of 1.12, while Noonan has a solid 13% from 99 rides here with an A/E of 1.53. With only six career runs and limited evidence on the ground the picture remains incomplete. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the tactical pace to play into his hands. The steadily-run nature of the race could help him stay the new trip if his stamina is up to it.
Le Vent d'Ex KTB Fit 55/100
Le Vent d'Ex is lightly raced with just two completed runs and a recent pulled-up effort, so the form is hard to weigh up. He drops back in trip to 2m for the first time, which asks a fresh question. The jockey has a strong 33% strike rate from only six rides at Killarney with an A/E of 4.79, though the trainer has no recorded runners here. Run-style evidence is limited but he usually settles held up. The yard's overall 0% record from six runs at the track adds to the unknowns, yet the jockey's record offers a positive.
The rest of the field
Molto AmichiKTB Fit 54/100
Molto Amichi has won over hurdles here from just one start and has placed form on good ground with one win and six places from eight runs. He steps up markedly in trip today having been beaten when falling over a mile last time and that leaves the new distance as an open question. The trainer's 8% strike rate at the track from 73 runs with an A/E of 0.7 is modest, though the jockey's solid 15% record from 20 rides here with an A/E of 1.15 helps. Usually held up, recent form is F-.
Through The StormKTB Fit 51/100
Through The Storm has shown only modest form in three runs at this trip and looks short of the standard needed here. The yard holds a 9% strike rate at Killarney from 91 runs with an A/E of 0.93. With such a small sample overall the form must be treated with real caution. Typically settles in midfield and recent form reads 46/8.
Lincoln MillKTB Fit 51/100
Lincoln Mill showed minor promise when second on debut but has been well held in both starts since. The drop back to 2m today asks a fresh question after his last run over 2m1f. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Killarney, the yard at 9% from 47 runs with an A/E of 1.3 and the rider at 5% from 37 rides with an A/E of 0.63. Usually held up, recent form is 62-80.
Marilyns PoetKTB Fit 50/100
Marilyns Poet has had just one run in the last year so the form picture is thin and needs treating with caution. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate from 19 runs at Killarney with an A/E of 1.41. Trip is an unknown today as the horse drops back from 2m3f to an untried 2m. Trainer-jockey combination is 0-9.
DeeterKTB Fit 49/100
Deeter has only one run to his name and was pulled up on debut, leaving him very hard to weigh up. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 126 runs at Killarney with an A/E of 1.12 while the jockey sits on an 8% record from 79 rides here with an A/E of 0.86. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question for this lightly-raced 5-year-old. Recent form is P-.
Golden HandshakeKTB Fit 48/100
Golden Handshake has only seven career runs and showed little when unseating last time out. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 12 runs at Killarney with an A/E of 0.76 while the jockey is on 12% from 41 rides here with an A/E of 0.91. Usually held up, recent form is U.
Cast A Cold EyeKTB Fit 47/100
Cast A Cold Eye is lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 5-6 on his latest start. He showed nothing at this track when sixth on debut and is now dropping back in trip having failed to make an impact over 2m1f. Mullins has a solid 22% strike rate from 590 runs at Killarney with an A/E of 0.89. Usually held up.
Kauto EmpressKTB Fit 47/100
Kauto Empress has been well beaten in both starts so far and remains lightly raced with only two runs on the board. The drop back to 2m is a new question having failed to make an impact at that trip last time. Trainer has no recorded runners at Killarney while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 55 rides here with an A/E of 0.88. Typically settles in midfield, recent form 00.
IkalimixKTB Fit 46/100
Ikalimix is a useful performer who has shown enough in the past to be taken seriously but has been disappointing on his last two completed starts. Only one run at this track resulted in a midfield finish and he is now dropping back in trip having failed to trouble the judge in three previous tries at this distance. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here, the yard at 6% from 256 runs with an A/E of 0.94. Typically settles in midfield, recent form 65/0-F.
ApprovalKTB Fit 46/100
Approval has shown very little so far with two modest efforts this season and no win or place from 14 career starts. He was well held on his only previous visit to Killarney and has likewise failed to make the frame in four runs on good ground. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track from 359 runs with an A/E of 0.64 adds little encouragement. Usually held up, recent form 05.
Minella Moon ShineKTB Fit 45/100
Minella Moon Shine is lightly raced with only two completed starts this season and a fall on debut, so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip at which he has been placed once, though that was in a small-field event. Trainer is 0-19 at Killarney with an A/E of 0 while the jockey has a solid 12% strike rate here from 66 rides with an A/E of 1.07. Usually held up, recent form F/26.
Ealu TapaKTB Fit 44/100
Ealu Tapa won on good ground last time but that was over a shorter trip and the form is hard to weigh up given just two career starts. He steps up in distance today which asks a fresh question while the yard's 12% strike rate at Killarney from 139 runs with an A/E of 0.85 is respectable enough. The jockey's 4% record from 56 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.27 is modest. Usually held up, recent form 91.
Champagne DiamondKTB Fit 43/100
Champagne Diamond is lightly raced with only two runs this year and a modest recent form line of 55/0-8. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 351 runs at Killarney with an A/E of 0.65 while the jockey is 7% from 301 rides here with an A/E of 0.79. First-time headgear is tried as the horse drops back in trip to an untried 2m. Typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Sea Eagle is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with solid recent form including a second last time out, he has a good record on good ground and the trainer's respectable record at Killarney adds confidence. His held-up run-style should suit the steadily-run, tactical race that is anticipated. Main dangers are Macoo, whose trainer and jockey combination at the track is strong, and Certosa, who has shown ability in maiden hurdles despite recent chase falls. The remainder of the field largely carry doubts over trip, ground or overall standard.
KTB Selection Sea Eagle
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Killarney?
Molto Amichi has won here from just one start.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Killarney in this field?
Luke Burke Ott has a 33% strike rate at Killarney from six rides with an A/E of 4.79.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
Sea Eagle, Certosa, Je Suis Celebre and Le Vent d'Ex are all held-up types.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at the track among those with runners?
W P Mullins has a 22% strike rate at Killarney from 590 runs with an A/E of 0.89.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Champagne Diamond is tried in first-time headgear.
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