6:00 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 1m2f1y on good ground features a field of nine, most of them 3yos and 4yos with relatively modest recent form. The KTB Fit Scores are led by Mudita on 69, well clear of the next best on 55, indicating a race where one horse stands out on the numbers while the remainder look more exposed or limited. Dropping in class looks a positive for the selection, while several others are stepping up in grade and carry questions over trip, course or consistency.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Fille Imbassee is the one noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace, while Sogniamo usually races handily on or close to the lead. The majority of the field, including the top two in the KTB Fit Scores, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of those can close the gap on a clear front-runner over this distance on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mudita KTB Selection69/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 2Sogniamo55/100Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
- 3Mighty Quiet54/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 4Fille Imbassee54/100Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
- 5Poppeye51/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 6Woodleigh47/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 7Eve's Boy47/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 8Bay Dream Believer46/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and steps up in trip having last run over a mile.
- 9Kartini42/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
The contenders
Mudita KTB Fit 69/100
Mudita tops the KTB Fit Scores on 69 and is the clear selection. A 3-year-old dropping in class, he arrives with recent form figures of 315330 and has shown enough to suggest he can make his mark from a wide draw. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard posts a 24% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.65, while Billy Garritty has a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.97. He has won once from three starts on good ground and usually races held up, producing his effort late. The combination of class relief, yard record at the venue and his ability to come from off the pace in a race with an uncontested leader makes him the one to beat.
Sogniamo KTB Fit 55/100
Sogniamo is rated second on KTB Fit with a score of 55. This 3-year-old has form figures of 8-1756 and will be ridden by David Nolan from a middle draw. The David O'Meara stable has a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.02, and Nolan himself shows a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.9. He usually races prominently, on or close to the lead, which could be an advantage given the projected lone leader shape. However he has no win or place from two runs on good ground and finished seventh on his only previous visit to Redcar, so he needs to improve on that course effort.
Mighty Quiet KTB Fit 54/100
Mighty Quiet carries a KTB Fit Score of 54. The 5-year-old has recent form of 82-643 and is trained by Harry Charlton, whose yard has a 33% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.05 from a small sample. Lewis Edmunds takes the ride and has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78. He has won once and been placed twice from five starts on good ground and usually races held up, delivering his effort late. A prior run at the course resulted in an eighth-place finish, so he enters with a bit to prove at Redcar but remains capable of a competitive showing if the race sets up for closers.
Fille Imbassee KTB Fit 54/100
Fille Imbassee also scores 54 on the KTB Fit scale. This 3-year-old brings form figures of 340412 and is likely to take up the running or race prominently in a race with a projected lone leader. Trained by Julie Camacho, who has an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.79, she is partnered by 5lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall who shows a 10% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.9. She has no win or place from one run on good ground and has no previous course form. Her front-running style could see her take the uncontested lead, which may prove hard to peg back if she stays the longer trip.
The rest of the field
PoppeyeKTB Fit 51/100
Poppeye is rated 51 on KTB Fit. The 4-year-old steps up in class with form figures of 4742, is held up in his races and has course form showing a second and a fourth. He has been placed once from one run on good ground.
WoodleighKTB Fit 47/100
Woodleigh scores 47 on KTB Fit. This 5-year-old steps up in class with form of 115545, usually races held up and has won twice from four starts at Redcar. He has been placed three times from eight runs on good ground.
Eve's BoyKTB Fit 47/100
Eve's Boy is rated 47 on KTB Fit. The 4-year-old has form figures of 772668, is a hold-up performer and has a win and two places from five starts on good ground.
Bay Dream BelieverKTB Fit 46/100
Bay Dream Believer carries a KTB Fit Score of 46. A modest 7-year-old who steps up in trip after his last run over a mile, he has won at this distance before, is 2-3 at the track without winning and handles good ground. The trainer's modest strike-rate at Redcar tempers enthusiasm despite the jockey's solid record here.
KartiniKTB Fit 42/100
Kartini is the lowest-rated on KTB Fit at 42. The 4-year-old has form of 492-60, is held up in his races, is unproven on good ground and has no course form.
KTB verdict
Mudita stands out on the KTB numbers with a Fit Score of 69 and looks well treated dropping in class. His yard's strong record at Redcar, combined with the ability to come from off the pace in a race likely to be run with an uncontested lead, gives him a clear edge. Sogniamo and Fille Imbassee are the most obvious dangers if the prominent runners can make the shape count, while Mighty Quiet is another who could close late if conditions suit.
KTB Selection Mudita
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and leads the KTB Fit Scores?
Mudita is dropping in class and has the top KTB Fit Score of 69.
How many horses usually race held up?
Six horses are described as usually held up: Mudita, Mighty Quiet, Poppeye, Woodleigh, Eve's Boy and Bay Dream Believer, plus Kartini.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Redcar in this field?
Harry Charlton has a 33% strike rate at Redcar from six runs.
Which horse has course wins at Redcar?
Woodleigh has won here from two wins out of four starts.
Who is the only horse noted as tending to make the running?
Fille Imbassee tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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