2:00 Navan
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series) over 5f180y at Navan brings together ten two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top pick on 68 with the remainder of the field clustered between 58 and 41, suggesting a race where proven course and distance performers hold the edge. Recent form is mixed across the principals, with several having already shown their hand at this venue and trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, as only one horse in the field tends to make the running or race prominently. Howlin Wolf is the sole front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead, which in a race of this nature can prove difficult for the numerous held-up types to overcome late on. With almost the entire field preferring to be held up and produce their effort from off the pace, the key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing speed to reel in a clear leader over this stiffening 5f180y.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Supreme Lord KTB Selection68/100
Supreme Lord is a useful colt who has already shown his liking for this track and trip by winning here over the distance on his third start. He has solid recent form including a win last time out and looks well suited by good ground. The yard are in strong form at Navan but the jockeys modest strike rate at the track is a negative. From draw 10 he will be held up and produce his effort late, fitting the prevailing run-style in a race where the leader may get first run. Having scored on his only previous visit to Navan he holds a clear course read in his favour.
-
2Shesthedevil58/100
Shesthedevil is a fair 2-year-old who has already shown her ability at this track and trip. She won over course and distance on her second start and has posted two respectable efforts in stronger company since, though she was below form last time. The yard holds a solid record at Navan while the jockey's strike-rate here is on the low side. Usually held up, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a contest where the leader could prove hard to catch. With one win and a placing from four runs on good ground she should handle the conditions.
-
3I Ready57/100
I Ready is a fair performer who has shown mixed form across six runs this year, including a win at today's trip. He ran poorly when last seen here at Navan and the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track is another negative. The jockey's useful 14% record from a small Navan sample offers some encouragement. Held up with high confidence in his run-style, he will need to find more than on his latest visit to the venue if he is to feature. He has been competitive on good ground without winning.
-
4La Tache52/100
La Tache is a useful 2yo with solid recent form including a win and two places from four starts. He steps up in trip today having already run twice over this distance without success and the going remains an unknown with only four runs on the board. Trainer G M Lyons and jockey Colin Keane both have established records at Navan. Usually held up, he will be coming from off the pace in a race where an uncontested lead may prove hard to bridge. With no previous course form he starts with that blank on his record.
-
5Tradewinds51/100
Tradewinds is a fair 2-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, landing minor honours twice in four attempts over 5f. He drops back from 7f today while wearing first-time headgear, though his sole run here at Navan was a modest fifth. The yard holds an 18% strike rate at the track from 57 runs while the 3lb claimer is operating at just 3% from 58 rides. Held up with high confidence, he will need the new headgear to spark improvement if he is to overcome that Navan effort and the overall pace setup.
-
6Lars Soldier50/100
Lars Soldier is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning in six runs this year. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip earlier in the season though he was well held over 7.5f last time. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Navan is offset by the jockey's solid 8% record at the track.
-
7Lady Patrona50/100
Lady Patrona is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second twice before landing a win at this trip last time. Stall one is a plus and the yard and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Navan. Going suitability remains unknown on the bare four runs.
-
8Captain James Cook41/100
Captain James Cook is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts so far, finishing seventh of eight on his most recent outing over 7½f. He drops back to 5f today where he has already been beaten twice, so the trip looks unlikely to unlock major improvement. The trainer has a strong 23% strike rate at Navan while the jockey's 8% record is more modest.
-
9Celestial Crown41/100
Celestial Crown is a modest performer who has shown little sign of progress in five runs and looks vulnerable again from stall 7. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a big sample but this jockey is operating at just 6% here. The trip looks a fair question after one unplaced effort at the distance and the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence.
-
10Howlin Wolf41/100
Howlin Wolf is a modest performer who has shown his best at this track with a second here on his penultimate start. He has already won over today's trip on good ground and the first-time headgear is a plausible positive. The yard's modest record at Navan tempers expectations. As the only front-runner he is set to take the uncontested lead.
KTB verdict
Supreme Lord stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won over course and distance, arrives in solid form after scoring last time, and handles good ground well while the yard's record at Navan adds further appeal despite the jockey's modest course strike rate. The race shape, with its lone leader likely to get an easy time up front, poses the main danger to all the held-up types, yet Supreme Lord's proven ability at this venue and trip gives him the clearest profile. Shesthedevil, with her own course-and-distance success, and the consistent but unproven La Tache are the most obvious dangers.
KTB Selection Supreme Lord
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Supreme Lord | 5/2 | BetTom |
| Shesthedevil | 14/1 | BetTom |
| I Ready | 15/2 | BetMGM |
| La Tache | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Tradewinds | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Lars Soldier | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Lady Patrona | 13/2 | BetMGM |
| Captain James Cook | 8/1 | BetMGM |
| Celestial Crown | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Howlin Wolf | 5/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Howlin Wolf is the sole front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead according to the pace shape.
How many of the field have previous course-and-distance winning form at Navan?
Supreme Lord and Shesthedevil have both won over course and distance at Navan.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Navan among those riding in this race?
Reese Holohan has a 14% strike rate at Navan from 14 rides.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at the track in this field?
Robson De Aguiar has a 38% strike rate at Navan.
How many runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Two runners, Tradewinds and Howlin Wolf, are wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies