1:30 Navan
This 5f180y Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden at Navan on good ground brings together a field of 15 two-year-olds, the majority of whom are either debutants or very lightly raced. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Mirissa Beach heading the list on 57 despite having no racecourse experience, followed closely by Your A Daisy on 55 and three others on 53 and 50. The race features a mix of newcomers whose pedigrees and connections must be taken on trust alongside juveniles who have already shown modest but measurable form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is clear and confident: a lone leader is expected to enjoy an uncontested lead with very little pressure from the gate. Ana Morello is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed to bowl along in isolation. That scenario sets up a test for the held-up and mid-division types, many of whom will be asked to close the gap in the final furlong. The key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary pace and class to reel in a horse that has been handed a soft lead.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mirissa Beach KTB Selection57/100
Mirissa Beach is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 62 runs at Navan and an above-average A/E of 1.91. The jockey's 6% strike rate from 84 rides at the track is more modest. Drawn in stall 1, she has the chance to track the expected lone leader closely from a good early position. With the trainer in reasonable form at the venue and the yard's record showing positive returns, this debutant is taken to make a strong impression on her first start.
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2Your A Daisy55/100
Your A Daisy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a strong record at Navan and the filly was bought for 32,000 euros as a yearling out of a dam who produced useful winners. Connections and pedigree give some hope but this is a low-confidence debut with little else to go on. Drawn in stall 4 she should be able to race handily enough behind the expected leader. The trainer's 38% strike rate at the track from a small sample is eye-catching and adds to the interest in her first outing.
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3Lady's Court53/100
Lady's Court showed fair pace on debut when finishing fifth over this trip at the course. The lightly-raced filly is drawn wide in stall 14 and has only one piece of form to go on. Trainer Paul W Flynn operates at a 6% strike rate here from 218 runs while jockey Reese Holohan has a 14% strike rate from 14 rides at Navan. She is likely to settle in midfield given her run-style. The wide draw and lack of experience on good ground add layers of difficulty in what already looks a competitive heat.
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4Roeillaun53/100
Roeillaun is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the frame on two of his last three starts including a placed effort over today's trip. Stall 15 looks far from ideal on his first run at Navan. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. Usually held up, he will be giving the expected lone leader a significant start. The combination of wide draw and late-run style could make the task of bridging the gap particularly demanding on this occasion.
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5Moyanna Castle50/100
Moyanna Castle showed very little on her sole start so far and remains hard to assess with only one run in the book. The trip looks suitable enough on what she has done but the wide draw in stall 13 is a clear negative. Trainer has no recorded runners at Navan while jockey Leigh Roche operates at a 7% strike rate from 339 rides here. She is expected to be held up towards the rear. With so little known about her and the stiff draw to contend with, she faces a difficult introduction to handicap company.
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6Essence Of Time49/100
Essence Of Time showed fair promise when second on debut before a lesser effort dropped in trip last time. The yard holds a modest 8% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while Chris Hayes is operating at 7% here from even more rides. Dropping back to 5f asks a fresh question and with only two runs on the board the form must be treated with caution.
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7Belle Island49/100
Belle Island is a modest performer who has shown some ability on her better days but has been below form on her last three starts. Trainer Robson De Aguiar has a strong 38% strike rate from eight runs at Navan. Jockey Donagh O'Connor has a modest 3% strike rate from 124 rides at the track.
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8Destiny Calls48/100
Destiny Calls is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a decent-sized sample while the jockey's 6% strike rate from nearly 200 rides is more modest. Pedigree and sales background will decide its prospects on debut.
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9Red Lily48/100
Red Lily is a newcomer whose profile rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The Eddie and Patrick Harty yard has a solid 11% strike rate from 45 runs at Navan while Shane Foley matches that figure from a much bigger sample of rides here. With low data confidence and no racecourse evidence yet little else can be said about her.
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10My Girl Georgia46/100
My Girl Georgia is a debutant with limited public form to go on. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition for a newcomer whose pedigree and sales background will have to do most of the talking. Trainer Miss Evanna McCutcheon has an 8% strike rate from 13 runs at Navan while Liam Keniry is still seeking his first winner from eight rides at the track.
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11Ana Morello45/100
Ana Morello has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing sixth on both occasions. The lightly raced filly is trying this trip again after one previous run without success and the small sample makes it impossible to judge how the going or Navan track will suit. Trainer and jockey both have negligible experience at the venue so overall this remains very much an unknown quantity.
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12Magna Fortuna44/100
Magna Fortuna has been well beaten on both starts to date and now drops back from 7½f to 5f with first-time headgear applied. The trainer has a poor record at Navan and this looks another tough assignment from stall 11. Data confidence remains low given the small sample and limited evidence so far.
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13Marcescence43/100
Marcescence is a newcomer with nothing on the track to go on. The Gavin Cromwell yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while Gary Carroll sits on a 6% record here. Pedigree and sales information will have to carry the assessment today.
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14Somethingaboutlove41/100
Somethingaboutlove showed only modest early pace when finishing sixth on debut here over 5f. The yard has a poor record at Navan and this lightly raced colt steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Jockey Rory Cleary has a modest 5% strike rate from 502 rides at the track.
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15Lucy's Promise39/100
Lucy's Promise is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on her penultimate start. She has been placed once at today's trip in four attempts but has been below that level in her last two runs. The yard's modest record at Navan adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Mirissa Beach is the KTB Selection. Although she has yet to race, the trainer's solid 13% strike rate and positive A/E figure at Navan from a meaningful sample give her a clear edge over most of this field on paper. Her low draw allows her to track the expected uncontested leader without expending early energy, which could prove decisive given the shape of the race. The main dangers are Your A Daisy, whose yard record at the track is eye-catching, and the more experienced Lady's Court and Roeillaun, though both must overcome wide draws and late-run styles if the leader gets an easy time up front.
KTB Selection Mirissa Beach
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mirissa Beach | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
| Your A Daisy | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady's Court | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Roeillaun | 6/4 | BetTom |
| Moyanna Castle | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
| Essence Of Time | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Belle Island | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Destiny Calls | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Red Lily | 14/1 | BetTom |
| My Girl Georgia | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Ana Morello | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Magna Fortuna | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| Marcescence | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Somethingaboutlove | 80/1 | Bet365 |
| Lucy's Promise | 8/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Mirissa Beach rated the top selection despite being a debutant?
The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 62 runs at Navan and an above-average A/E of 1.91.
How is the race expected to be run in terms of pace?
A lone leader is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead with little to pressure it.
What are the main drawbacks for Roeillaun and Lady's Court?
Stall 15 looks far from ideal for Roeillaun on his first run at Navan while Lady's Court is drawn wide in stall 14.
Which horse is the sole front-runner in the field?
Ana Morello tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What recent course form does Lucy's Promise hold?
She has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on her penultimate start and has run twice at Navan overall.
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