2:02 York
This Class 4 nursery at York over six furlongs on good to firm ground brings together nine juveniles, several of whom have already shown useful ability in maiden or novice company. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Super Tuscan and Big Cigar both rated 65, followed by the more experienced Furturra on 61. The race features a mixture of class droppers and one who steps up, and the York course statistics for the trainers and jockeys involved add another layer to a competitive heat.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent runners in the field the pace is expected to be on the strong side. Super Tuscan from a low draw and Dubai Champion from stall one are both likely to go forward early, while Big Cigar and Furturra can track the leaders. The key question is whether the prominent types can sustain their effort up the straight or if a closer with a well-timed run, such as the selection, can pick them up late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Super Tuscan65/100
- 2Big Cigar KTB Selection65/100
- 3Furturra61/100
- 4Boleto51/100
- 5Rbflying48/100
- 6Dubai Champion47/100
- 7Social Spirit46/100
- 8Ballisty43/100
- 9Brandenburg36/100
The contenders
Super Tuscan KTB Fit 65/100
Super Tuscan arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 65 and looks a major player stepping up in class. His recent form of 541 includes a win on good to firm, a surface on which he has a perfect one-from-one strike rate. The Eve Johnson Houghton yard has a solid 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.45, though the trainer and jockey combination is currently 0/20. Rob Hornby has a 7% strike rate at the track. Drawn in stall three, his run-style should see him prominent, and he is expected to give another strong account.
Big Cigar KTB Fit 65/100
Big Cigar is the KTB Selection and shares the top Fit Score of 65. A drop in class looks ideal following his form of 15, which included a winning debut. The Richard and Peter Fahey stable posts an 8% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.39, while Oisin Orr has a 6% strike rate at the track from 187 rides. He has one run on good to firm without placing. From draw eight he should be able to track the pace before delivering his challenge, and the combination of class relief and yard form makes him the one to beat.
Furturra KTB Fit 61/100
Furturra is a seasoned performer with form figures of 231212 and a KTB Fit Score of 61. Dropping in class should suit, and he has already shown his liking for York with two placed efforts from two starts here. Tim Easterby’s 6% strike rate at the track is offset by Sean Kirrane’s 8% strike rate and A/E of 1.21 from 73 rides. The one concern is that he has no experience on good to firm ground. His prominent run-style means he will be to the fore again, and his course experience cannot be ignored.
Boleto KTB Fit 51/100
Boleto brings a KTB Fit Score of 51 and looks interesting dropping in class. His form reads 10, and he has one run on good to firm without placing. Clive Cox has a 9% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.83, while Rossa Ryan boasts a 13% strike rate at the track from 165 rides. Drawn in stall five, his run-style should allow him to sit in a handy position. While he has less experience than some, the drop in grade and the trainer-jockey combination keep him firmly in the mix.
The rest of the field
RbflyingKTB Fit 48/100
Rbflying has a KTB Fit Score of 48 and drops in class with form of 653. He has one placed effort from one run at York and one run on good to firm without placing. The Tim Easterby and Ben Robinson combination has an A/E of 1.36, but the yard’s overall York strike rate is 6%.
Dubai ChampionKTB Fit 47/100
Dubai Champion is rated 47 on KTB Fit and has form of 431. He is unproven on good to firm and finished fourth on his sole York start. The Ben Haslam yard has a modest 4% strike rate at the track, and Andrew Mullen a 3% strike rate.
Social SpiritKTB Fit 46/100
Social Spirit carries a KTB Fit Score of 46 and has form of 356. He has placed once from two runs on good to firm but has no course form. The Michael and David Easterby yard has a 5% strike rate at York.
BallistyKTB Fit 43/100
Ballisty is rated 43 on KTB Fit with consistent form of 323. He is unproven on good to firm, has no course form, and the Jack Jones yard is 0/5 at York.
BrandenburgKTB Fit 36/100
Brandenburg has the lowest KTB Fit Score of 36 and form of 01. He is unproven on good to firm, has no course form, and neither the trainer nor jockey has a York winner between them.
KTB verdict
Big Cigar is the KTB Selection and looks to have been found the right opportunity dropping in class. His debut success and subsequent run suggest he has the ability to cope with these terms, while the Fahey yard’s healthy A/E at York adds confidence. The main dangers are Super Tuscan, who brings a win on good to firm and a handy draw, and the more experienced Furturra, who knows the track well. Boleto cannot be ruled out either if the drop in grade sparks improvement.
KTB Selection Big Cigar
This is the narrative read of the 2:02 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the most York experience?
Furturra has the most York experience, having finished second on both starts at the track.
Who is unproven on good to firm ground?
Furturra, Dubai Champion, Ballisty and Brandenburg have no runs on good to firm.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at York among those represented?
Eve Johnson Houghton has a 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.45.
How many horses are dropping in class?
Big Cigar, Furturra, Boleto and Rbflying are all dropping in class.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at York in this field?
Rossa Ryan has a 13% strike rate at York from 165 rides.
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