2:10 Curragh
A 19-runner Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden for two-year-olds over six furlongs at the Curragh on good ground. The race lacks any obvious leader, which according to the KTB numbers points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. The top five in the KTB Fit rankings are all debutants apart from one previous runner-up, underlining how open this maiden looks on paper with assessment often resting on pedigree, sales background and yard form at the track.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace is expected to be steady rather than searching, turning the race into a tactical affair. Being prominent or handy from a decent draw looks advantageous given the shape. The key question is which of these largely unexposed juveniles can translate pedigree and home promise into immediate racecourse performance while others improve from modest early runs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mickian Thomas KTB Selection55/100Mickian Thomas is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 2Killashee Supreme52/100Killashee Supreme is a debutant so assessment rests on pedigree and sales background.
- 3Savannah Sun50/100Savannah Sun is a newcomer with first-time headgear and a wide draw in stall 15.
- 4Kindacan48/100Kindacan is a newcomer from the Murtagh yard who has shown enough at home to be given a run here.
- 5Tavernise46/100Tavernise is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record.
- 6Fighting Tears45/100Fighting Tears is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 7Heart Of You45/100A lightly raced juvenile who showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 7f.
- 8Cat Blade44/100Cat Blade is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 9Coincidenza44/100Coincidenza is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard.
- 10Cromane44/100Cromane has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth then seventh without suggesting he is well up to this level.
- 11The Pipeman44/100The Pipeman showed promise when second on debut over this trip and should improve with the run under his belt.
- 12Lion Of Fortune43/100Lion Of Fortune is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 13Roeillaun43/100Roeillaun has shown only modest form in two starts at five furlongs and now steps up to six furlongs for the first time, which asks a fresh question.
- 14This That43/100This That showed fair pace when fourth on debut over 7f then weakened into ninth last time.
- 15Closed Loop41/100Closed Loop has shown very little in two runs at this trip so far.
- 16The Long Haul41/100The Long Haul showed some promise when fifth on debut over a mile.
- 17Run Johnny Run41/100Run Johnny Run has been well beaten on both starts to date and is drawn widest of all in stall 19.
- 18Williamsburg41/100Lightly raced and with only a modest seventh on debut over 7f, Williamsburg has very little to recommend him on the bare numbers.
- 19Little Diva40/100Little Diva has shown little so far, finishing ninth then fifth in two starts over slightly longer trips.
The contenders
Mickian Thomas KTB Fit 55/100
Mickian Thomas is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a strong 40% strike-rate at Curragh from a small sample of five runners. Pedigree and sales background are the only other pointers available at this stage. Trainer Rory Anthony Devine and jockey Gavin Ryan team up from draw 9 on good ground where the sire has a modest record. Connections will hope the positive yard statistic at the venue can be built upon in what looks a winnable heat on paper.
Killashee Supreme KTB Fit 52/100
Killashee Supreme is a debutant so assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. Trainer Eddie and Patrick Harty hold a solid 8 percent strike rate from 136 runs at the Curragh. Jockey Jamie Powell has limited experience here and the wide draw in stall 14 adds another unknown on debut. The combination of trainer and jockey shows an 11% strike rate together with a positive A/E. On good ground with no course win on record the colt will need to be forward enough from his wide berth in a steadily-run race.
Savannah Sun KTB Fit 50/100
Savannah Sun is a newcomer with first-time headgear and a wide draw in stall 15. The Michael J Browne yard has a 0% strike rate from 23 runs at the Curragh. With low data confidence and no racecourse evidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. Jockey Jimmy Dalton has a strong 13% strike rate at the track from limited rides. The headgear is applied at the first attempt on good ground where the overall picture remains tentative.
Kindacan KTB Fit 48/100
Kindacan is a newcomer from the Murtagh yard who has shown enough at home to be given a run here. The pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues and the trainer's solid 10% strike-rate at Curragh from a big sample suggests the stable knows when to send one out. How ready he is on debut remains the big unknown. Ben Coen takes the ride from a handy draw in stall 6 on good ground where the sire has shown a 10% win rate. The yard's record with the jockey reads 13% strike rate overall.
Tavernise KTB Fit 46/100
Tavernise is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 160 runs at Curragh with a slightly positive A/E of 1.08, which is respectable for a debutant operation. Connections will hope the pedigree translates quickly on good ground from stall 8. Siobhan Rutledge is aboard with the pair showing a 15% strike rate together. No course win on record but the draw and yard figures provide some encouragement in a race lacking established form.
The rest of the field
Fighting TearsKTB Fit 45/100
Fighting Tears is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but the data confidence remains low. Trainer A Oliver has a modest 4% strike-rate from 543 runs at Curragh.
Heart Of YouKTB Fit 45/100
Heart Of You showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 7f. Dropping back to 6f poses a fresh question. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 1434 runs at the Curragh. Prominent in his run-style, the lightly raced juvenile remains unproven on good ground.
Cat BladeKTB Fit 44/100
Cat Blade is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike-rate from 56 runs at Curragh. Data confidence is low so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which are not supplied here.
CoincidenzaKTB Fit 44/100
Coincidenza is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard. The 2yo is by Wootton Bassett out of a Group-placed mare and was bought for €300,000 as a yearling, so the pedigree and sales price suggest some ability. Trainer strike rate at the Curragh is a modest 8% from a large sample.
CromaneKTB Fit 44/100
Cromane has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth then seventh without suggesting he is well up to this level. He drops back to 6f having looked stretched at 7f last time, though he has already tried today's trip once without success. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Curragh from a large sample adds little encouragement. Held up in his run-style and unproven on good ground.
The PipemanKTB Fit 44/100
The Pipeman showed promise when second on debut over this trip and should improve with the run under his belt. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Curragh from 138 runs. Trip looks suitable on the evidence available but everything else is based on very limited data. Held up in his run-style and competitive on his one run on good ground.
Lion Of FortuneKTB Fit 43/100
Lion Of Fortune is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but the low data confidence means any conclusions remain tentative. Kieran P Cotter has a modest 5% strike rate from 198 runs at the Curragh.
RoeillaunKTB Fit 43/100
Roeillaun has shown only modest form in two starts at five furlongs and now steps up to six furlongs for the first time, which asks a fresh question. The yard's record at the Curragh stands at a 7% strike rate from 923 runs. With so little racing behind him the overall picture remains unclear.
This ThatKTB Fit 43/100
This That showed fair pace when fourth on debut over 7f then weakened into ninth last time. He now drops back to 6f where he has already been tried without success. The Lyons yard operates at a 9% strike rate here while Gary Carroll has a modest record at the Curragh.
Closed LoopKTB Fit 41/100
Closed Loop has shown very little in two runs at this trip so far. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 14 rides at Curragh and the horse is drawn wide in stall 13. Held up in his run-style with data confidence low.
The Long HaulKTB Fit 41/100
The Long Haul showed some promise when fifth on debut over a mile. Dropping back to 6f poses a fresh question while the small sample means his ability on good ground and at this track remains unknown. Trainer McCourt has a modest 3% strike rate from 385 runs at the Curragh.
Run Johnny RunKTB Fit 41/100
Run Johnny Run has been well beaten on both starts to date and is drawn widest of all in stall 19. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Curragh. With only two runs on his record the colt remains low-confidence and the trip has so far brought no joy.
WilliamsburgKTB Fit 41/100
Lightly raced and with only a modest seventh on debut over 7f, Williamsburg has very little to recommend him on the bare numbers. The drop back to 6f today asks a fresh question of a horse that has not shown enough to judge whether the shorter trip will suit. Trainer strike rate at the Curragh is a modest 4% from 290 runs.
Little DivaKTB Fit 40/100
Little Diva has shown little so far, finishing ninth then fifth in two starts over slightly longer trips. She now drops back to 6f for the first time in headgear while drawn wide in stall 16. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Curragh from a big sample adds little encouragement on this lightly-raced filly. Held up in her run-style.
KTB verdict
Mickian Thomas is the KTB Selection. The newcomer brings the strongest yard statistic at the Curragh in the shape of a 40% strike rate from a small but meaningful sample, and that positive outweighs the complete lack of racecourse form in a race where so many others also arrive without proven ability. He can take advantage of a decent draw in a steadily-run affair. The main dangers are Kindacan, who represents a yard that knows when to fire one on debut, and The Pipeman, who showed promise when second on his only start and should improve for the experience.
KTB Selection Mickian Thomas
This is the narrative read of the 2:10 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse represents the yard with the best strike rate at the Curragh?
Mickian Thomas, whose trainer Rory Anthony Devine has a 40% strike rate at Curragh from five runs with an A/E of 6.66.
How many of the field are debutants?
Ten of the 19 runners are making their first start, including the top four in the KTB Fit rankings.
Which runners are likely to be prominent given the pace shape?
Heart Of You is the only horse noted as usually racing handily or close to the lead, which should be an advantage in a steadily-run race lacking a clear leader.
Which horse has the strongest recent form on paper?
The Pipeman, who finished second on debut over this trip, while most others have either been well beaten or are unraced.
What does the KTB data say about first-time headgear in this field?
Savannah Sun and Little Diva both race in first-time headgear, with the KTB Intelligence noting this as part of their limited-profile assessments.
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