2:45 Curragh
A 16-runner Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap over a mile on good ground at the Curragh looks a competitive, steadily-run affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Tofino, Neo Smart and Pallatine Hills all rated 53-54, underlining how little separates many of these modest performers. Most of the field will be held up or settle in mid-division, and several runners arrive in first-time headgear as connections search for an edge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical race where those positioned handy on the turn may hold an advantage. With the majority of runners, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, tending to be held up or settle in mid-division, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing in the final two furlongs. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken effectively off a modest gallop or whether those closer to the pace can maintain their position as the tempo lifts.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tofino KTB Selection54/100Modest performer who has won once here and once at this trip.
- 2Neo Smart53/100Modest performer who has won over this trip but is stepping back up in distance having been campaigned mostly over 7f of late.
- 3Pallatine Hills53/100Modest performer who has shown occasional flashes at this track without winning.
- 4Bundle Of Interest52/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and looks no better than fair at best.
- 5Avec Grand Plaisir52/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has failed to build on a placed effort at this trip last season.
- 6Dinamine51/100Limited performer who has been inconsistent this year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 7Sancerre Rock51/100Modest performer who has shown very little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only previous run here.
- 8Kitty Bear50/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but looks exposed after 28 runs.
- 9Marambo48/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form at best in four starts.
- 10Comfort Line47/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of a string of ordinary efforts.
- 11Sherekiya47/100Modest performer who has shown only fair form in four starts and was well held on return at this track last month.
- 12Alto Sax46/100Limited class performer who has won twice at this trip but is dropping back from 1m3½f.
- 13Ella's Gold45/100Modest performer who has been placed on three of her last four starts without winning.
- 14Lamberella44/100Modest performer who has shown little in six starts and was well beaten when eighth on her only previous run here.
- 15Navajo Point39/100Limited performer who has shown little spark at this track in three runs.
- 16Cannonball Queen36/100Limited performer who has shown very little in eight runs and finished well beaten in all three starts here.
The contenders
Tofino KTB Fit 54/100
Tofino is a modest performer who has won once at the Curragh and once over this trip. His recent form has been patchy, mixing placed efforts with some poor runs, yet he has shown he can be competitive off marks around this level at times. Gavin Cromwell's 7% strike rate at the Curragh from a large sample suggests the four-year-old will need things to fall right, while Gary Carroll's 7% record at the track from nearly a thousand rides adds a similar note of caution. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race if he can find the necessary rhythm. He has won on good ground from nine attempts and returns to a course where he has scored from five runs.
Neo Smart KTB Fit 53/100
Neo Smart is a modest performer who has won over this trip but is stepping back up in distance after being campaigned mostly over 7f of late. He has course-winning form here from 13 runs and handles good ground well enough with a win and four places from 16 attempts. First-time headgear is now tried, which may help him settle better given his tendency to be held up and produce his effort late. J S Bolger's solid 10% strike rate at the Curragh from over 4,000 runs adds encouragement, as does Declan McDonogh's 8% record at the venue. The five-year-old has the ability to feature if the new headgear brings about the required improvement in a steadily-run affair.
Pallatine Hills KTB Fit 53/100
Pallatine Hills is a modest performer who has shown occasional flashes at this track without winning, placing once from four runs here. He has been placed once from six attempts on good ground and has form at this trip, though he drops back from 1m1f today. First-time headgear is now applied in the hope of sharpening him up, given he is usually held up and produces his effort late. Eddie & Patrick Harty's solid 8% strike rate at the Curragh from 136 runs offers some hope, while Jamie Powell's 8% record at the track from 236 rides is respectable. From draw 2 he could be well positioned if the race develops into a tactical test.
Bundle Of Interest KTB Fit 52/100
Bundle Of Interest is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and looks no better than fair at best. He has a bit of placed form at this trip but steps up from 7f today while wearing first-time headgear. W McCreery's modest 8% strike rate at the Curragh is backed by a large sample of 662 runs, while Dylan Browne McMonagle's 12% record at the track from 554 rides provides a more positive angle. Usually held up, he will need the steadily-run pace to unfold in his favour if he is to make an impact on these terms. His win on good ground from six attempts suggests conditions should be suitable.
Avec Grand Plaisir KTB Fit 52/100
Avec Grand Plaisir is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has failed to build on a placed effort at this trip last season. Dropping back from 1m2½f today asks a fresh question while his sole run here resulted in a well-beaten 12th. The yard's 7% strike rate from 111 runs at the Curragh offers little encouragement, though Ronan Whelan's 6% record at the venue is in line with that. Typically settling in midfield, he may be suited by a steadily-run race if he can find the necessary spark. He has been competitive on good ground from his one attempt so far.
The rest of the field
DinamineKTB Fit 51/100
Dinamine is a limited performer who has been inconsistent this year and now tries first-time headgear. He steps up from 7f to a trip he has won over twice before yet his record on good ground is modest with just one success from 17 starts, while the trainer's 6% strike rate at Curragh from a large sample offers no particular encouragement on his debut at the track.
Sancerre RockKTB Fit 51/100
Sancerre Rock is a modest performer who has shown very little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only previous run here. He steps up to an untested 1m for the first time while wearing headgear for the first time, though the trainer has a solid 7% strike rate from 392 runs at the Curragh.
Kitty BearKTB Fit 50/100
Kitty Bear is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but looks exposed after 28 runs. Dropping back from 1m0½f should suit on balance and she has shown she handles good ground with a win and two places from six attempts, while the trainer holds a solid 7% strike-rate at the Curragh from a big sample though the jockey is 0-6 here.
MaramboKTB Fit 48/100
Marambo is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form at best in four starts. He has failed to land a blow at this trip on his three attempts and now tries first-time headgear, while the trainer records a 5% strike rate from 43 runs at Curragh.
Comfort LineKTB Fit 47/100
Comfort Line is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of a string of ordinary efforts. He has placed here before and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, while the return to 1m is a plus given his three wins at the trip, though first-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest record at the Curragh offers little encouragement.
SherekiyaKTB Fit 47/100
Sherekiya is a modest performer who has shown only fair form in four starts and was well held on return at this track last month. She steps up to 1m for the first time today having failed to land a blow at the distance on three previous attempts, while the Weld yard has an 11% strike rate here from a huge sample of runners.
Alto SaxKTB Fit 46/100
Alto Sax is a limited class performer who has won twice at this trip but is dropping back from 1m3½f. Three wins from 11 runs on good ground read positively while the first-time headgear is an unknown, and the trainer strikes at 7% here from 83 runs.
Ella's GoldKTB Fit 45/100
Ella's Gold is a modest performer who has been placed on three of her last four starts without winning. She drops back to 1m today after her latest effort over 1m2½f and is tried in first-time headgear, though the trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 90 runs at the Curragh.
LamberellaKTB Fit 44/100
Lamberella is a modest performer who has shown little in six starts and was well beaten when eighth on her only previous run here. She drops back from 1m4f to a trip she has failed to make an impact at before, with first-time headgear now fitted while the yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Curragh adds little encouragement.
Navajo PointKTB Fit 39/100
Navajo Point is a limited performer who has shown little spark at this track in three runs. He drops back to 1m today having failed to trouble the judge at that trip in four previous attempts and remains winless on good ground, while the trainer records a 7% strike rate here from 107 runs.
Cannonball QueenKTB Fit 36/100
Cannonball Queen is a limited performer who has shown very little in eight runs and finished well beaten in all three starts here. The step up to 1m is an unknown and the yard has failed to land a winner from 40 attempts at the Curragh, though she has been placed once on good ground.
KTB verdict
Tofino is the KTB Selection in a race where so many of these are modest performers with patchy recent form. He has won here before and has shown he can be competitive off this sort of mark at times, even if his trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the Curragh suggests he will need things to fall right. The steadily-run pace should suit his held-up style if he can time his run effectively. Neo Smart and Pallatine Hills, both in first-time headgear, head the list of dangers, along with Bundle Of Interest who also sports the visor for the first time.
KTB Selection Tofino
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at the Curragh over this trip?
Tofino has won here once from five runs and has also won once at this trip.
How many of the field are trying first-time headgear?
Nine runners are wearing headgear for the first time: Neo Smart, Pallatine Hills, Bundle Of Interest, Dinamine, Sancerre Rock, Marambo, Comfort Line, Alto Sax, Ella's Gold and Lamberella.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at the Curragh in this field?
W McCreery has a 23% strike rate with Dylan Browne McMonagle from 22 runs, while the yard itself has an 8% strike rate from 662 runs at the track.
Who has the best placed record on good ground among the principals?
Neo Smart has a win and four places from 16 runs on good ground.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from the furthest distance?
Lamberella drops back from 1m4f, while Alto Sax drops back from 1m3½f.
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