2:10 Thirsk
This Class 6 classified stakes over six furlongs at Thirsk on good ground brings together nine limited performers, none of whom have been setting the world alight of late. The KTB Fit scores reflect a modest bunch overall, with Golden Prosperity heading the figures on 63 and a clutch of others clustered between 57 and 32. First-time headgear features on four runners, while the official ratings and recent form suggest a race that could be decided by which horse finds a bit of improvement or benefits from the prevailing pace shape.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to an uncontested lead that can prove difficult for closers to reel in. Thank The Lord is the one horse in the field with a front-running style and looks likely to be allowed an easy time on the front end from draw 2. Most of the remainder, including the selection Golden Prosperity, Mrs Trump, Hurstwood and the majority of the field, tend to race held up or in mid-division, raising the key question of whether any of them can muster a strong enough late rally to overcome the uncontested leader.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Golden Prosperity KTB Selection63/100Limited performer who has run creditably here without winning for a while.
- 2Mrs Trump57/100Limited performer who has won once from three starts at Thirsk and has also scored at this trip.
- 3Hurstwood50/100Limited on ability and has been out of the winner's circle for a long time.
- 4Thank The Lord50/100Limited performer who has struggled this season with a string of modest efforts.
- 5Mister Sky Blue49/100Mister Sky Blue is a limited performer who has been around the houses this year without winning.
- 6Tickets39/100Limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning.
- 7Tarlac39/100Tarlac is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely threatens to win.
- 8Drish Samphire36/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three runs this year and carries a career record of no wins from nine starts.
- 9Newyorkstateofmind32/100Limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely wins.
The contenders
Golden Prosperity KTB Fit 63/100
Golden Prosperity is a limited performer who has run creditably at Thirsk without winning for some time. He has shown enough at this trip on good ground to remain competitive in this grade and the application of first-time headgear could provide a helping hand. The seven-year-old is held up in his races and usually produces his effort late. Trainer Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood have an 11% strike rate at the track with a fair A/E of 1.01 from 19 runs, which offsets their modest overall record, while jockey Jake Dickson boasts a 27% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.65 from 11 rides. He has three wins from 16 starts on good ground and has won here once from six attempts.
Mrs Trump KTB Fit 57/100
Mrs Trump is a limited performer who has won once from three starts at Thirsk and has also scored at this trip. Her recent form has been ordinary and she is now winless in her last 13 starts. The six-year-old typically settles in midfield. Trainer Paul Midgley has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.86 from 510 runs, while jockey Liam Wright has a 33% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.43 from three rides. She has two wins from 14 starts on good ground and has won here once from three attempts.
Hurstwood KTB Fit 50/100
Hurstwood is limited on ability and has been out of the winner's circle for a long time. He has run well at Thirsk a couple of times without winning and stays competitive at this trip on good ground, though his recent form is modest at best. The nine-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Peter Niven has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.7 from 74 runs, while jockey Ethan Tindall has an 8% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.33 from 13 rides. He has one win from 16 starts on good ground and has been placed twice from seven runs here without winning.
Thank The Lord KTB Fit 50/100
Thank The Lord is a limited performer who has struggled this season with a string of modest efforts. He has won on good ground and at this trip in the past but steps up from five furlongs today while wearing first-time headgear. The seven-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently. Trainer W H Harrison has no previous record at Thirsk, while jockey Shay Farmer has a 0% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0 from eight rides. He has two wins from seven starts on good ground and has no previous course form on record.
The rest of the field
Mister Sky BlueKTB Fit 49/100
Mister Sky Blue is a limited performer who has been around the houses this year without winning. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and has won at this trip in the past though his overall strike rate is poor. The yard has a modest record at Thirsk, while jockey Conor Whiteley has limited experience at the track.
TicketsKTB Fit 39/100
Tickets is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning. He has won over today's trip but is 0-3 on good ground and was well held on his only previous run here. First-time headgear is now applied.
TarlacKTB Fit 39/100
Tarlac is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely threatens to win. He has shown nothing better than modest form this year and was well beaten on his only previous run at Thirsk. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 21 runs here and the horse is 0-6 on good ground.
Drish SamphireKTB Fit 36/100
Drish Samphire is a limited performer who has shown very little in three runs this year and carries a career record of no wins from nine starts. Trainer Lawrence Mullaney has a modest 7% strike-rate at Thirsk from 75 runs while Cian Horgan is aboard for the first time. This is his first run at the track and he has had no joy in six attempts at this trip.
NewyorkstateofmindKTB Fit 32/100
Newyorkstateofmind is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely wins. He has shown the odd bit of placed form on good ground and won over today's trip in the past, but recent efforts have been nothing to shout about and the first-time headgear is a sign that something needs to change. The trainer has a modest record at Thirsk.
KTB verdict
Golden Prosperity heads the KTB Fit scores and looks the most solid option in a modest event. He has run creditably enough at Thirsk in the past, stays competitive at this trip on good ground, and the first-time headgear may spark a bit of improvement from his held-up style. The uncontested lead predicted by the pace shape could make things tricky for late runners, yet he has shown enough to suggest he can get close. Mrs Trump and Hurstwood are the other principals with course form, though both bring modest recent efforts, while Thank The Lord may get an easy lead but has been struggling this season. The remainder of the field look limited and hard to fancy with any confidence.
KTB Selection Golden Prosperity
This is the narrative read of the 2:10 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to get an uncontested lead?
Thank The Lord, as the only front-runner in the field and with the pace shape indicating a lone leader.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four: Golden Prosperity, Thank The Lord, Tickets and Newyorkstateofmind.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Thirsk?
Hurstwood, who has been placed twice from seven runs here.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Thirsk among the principals?
Jake Dickson on Golden Prosperity with a 27% strike rate and A/E 1.65 from 11 rides.
What is the strike rate of the trainer with the most runs at Thirsk in this field?
Ruth Carr has an 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 559 runs.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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