2:40 Thirsk
This Class 4 restricted maiden fillies' stakes over the minimum trip at Thirsk features a field of 13 juveniles, several of whom have already shown modest but consistent placed form while a clutch of newcomers add to the unknowns. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with My Maria heading the numbers on 56, closely followed by Time Glory on 54 and Inglewood on 52. Conditions are good ground and the pace shape points to a lone leader being allowed an uncontested advantage, which sets up an interesting test for those who race off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, the race is expected to be dominated up front by a clear front-runner who should be allowed to dictate without serious pressure. My Maria, who tends to make the running or race prominently, looks the obvious candidate to take that role from stall 10 and could prove hard to reel in. The key question is whether any of the held-up types, such as Travellers Girl, Dorothea Hope or Purrista, can bridge the gap on good ground in what may turn into a sprint for the minor places from some way back.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1My Maria KTB Selection56/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip in three of her four starts, including a second here last time.
- 2Time Glory54/100Modest performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip on his last two starts.
- 3Inglewood52/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year, Inglewood has shown ability by placing once at today's trip.
- 4Mollisha49/100Mollisha showed some promise when third on debut over 6f and now drops back to 5f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of her.
- 5Veruca Salt48/100James Fanshawe has a solid 22% strike rate at Thirsk from 105 runs.
- 6Takeaselfie47/100Takeaselfie is a newcomer from the Richard and Peter Fahey yard which has an 8% strike rate from 24 runs at Thirsk.
- 7Basmaah44/100Basmaah is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and the assessment relies heavily on pedigree and sales background.
- 8Estella Havisham44/100Estella Havisham is a newcomer from the K R Burke yard which has a solid 12% strike rate from 448 runs at Thirsk.
- 9Travellers Girl44/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 10Dorothea Hope44/100Dorothea Hope has shown ordinary form in two starts over this trip, finishing fourth and fifth without suggesting she is ahead of the pack.
- 11Prosperity Angel43/100Prosperity Angel showed some promise when third on debut over this trip.
- 12Purrista40/100Purrista showed some promise when third on debut over this trip and will be suited by the quick ground if that run is anything to go by.
- 13Shaniko32/100Shaniko has shown modest form in three runs and sits in the same bracket again today.
The contenders
My Maria KTB Fit 56/100
My Maria is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip in three of her four starts, most recently finishing second here. Archie Watson holds a solid 21% strike rate at Thirsk from 39 runs and the yard's 3/15 record with this jockey carries an A/E of 2.47. First-time headgear is now applied to this lightly-raced filly whose going preference remains unclear from such a small sample, though she steps up in class. Her front-running style aligns perfectly with the expected uncontested lead, which could prove decisive. The selection has the best recent placed efforts in the field and the highest KTB Fit Score.
Time Glory KTB Fit 54/100
Time Glory is another modest performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip on his last two starts. Kevin Ryan brings a solid 12% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample and pairs with Kevin Stott, who himself holds a 14% record at the track. The trip looks suitable but the going remains an unknown with only three runs on the board, though he has placed once from one start on good. Stepping up in class from a low draw, his mid-division run-style means he will need the leaders to come back to him if the uncontested pace holds up. He sits second in the KTB Fit scores and cannot be ruled out.
Inglewood KTB Fit 52/100
Inglewood is lightly raced with just two runs this year and has shown ability by placing once at today's trip. The colt was fifth on his only visit to Thirsk and the small sample makes it hard to be certain about his level, though he steps up in class from a low draw. Trainer Julie Camacho has a 9% strike rate here from 261 runs while jockey Ryan Sexton has limited course experience. With only one run on good ground and no win or place, questions remain about conditions. His prominent-midfield style could see him track the leader but he will need to improve on what he has shown so far.
Mollisha KTB Fit 49/100
Mollisha showed some promise when third on debut over 6f and now drops back to 5f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of her. The small sample means her ability remains hard to pin down with any confidence as she steps up in class. Trainer Brian Ellison has a solid 10% strike rate from 331 runs at Thirsk while jockey Ben Robinson's record at the track is not supplied. Unproven on good ground, she will need to show she handles the surface and the drop in trip. From a middle draw she is likely to race handily enough but the overall profile carries plenty of guesswork.
Veruca Salt KTB Fit 48/100
Veruca Salt brings first-time headgear on debut for James Fanshawe, who has a solid 22% strike rate at Thirsk from 105 runs. This newcomer is by Harry Angel out of a mare who produced useful sprinters, though the yard's two-year-olds can need the run on debut. With only one piece of recent form noted and low data confidence overall, the race will tell us far more than the paper profile. The trainer and jockey combination is 2/17 with an A/E of 0.69. She will need to overcome a lack of experience against some already raced opponents who have shown placed form.
The rest of the field
TakeaselfieKTB Fit 47/100
Takeaselfie is a newcomer from the Richard and Peter Fahey yard which has an 8% strike rate from 24 runs at Thirsk. The 3lb claimer Warren Fentiman takes the ride. With no racecourse form available and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
BasmaahKTB Fit 44/100
Basmaah is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and the assessment relies heavily on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 130 runs at Thirsk. Harry Vigors takes the ride with a 5 lb claim but the overall data confidence remains low.
Estella HavishamKTB Fit 44/100
Estella Havisham is a newcomer from the K R Burke yard which has a solid 12% strike rate from 448 runs at Thirsk. The filly was a 40,000gns yearling purchase and is by Blue Point out of a dam who produced several winners including the useful sprinter Mums Tipple. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence available the picture remains tentative.
Travellers GirlKTB Fit 44/100
Travellers Girl is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. She finished third on her only run here at Thirsk and now drops back to an untried 5f for the first time after her last effort over 7f. Trainer Roger Fell has a 5% strike rate from 245 runs at the track while jockey Oisin Orr operates at 11% from 82 rides here. Her held-up style could be vulnerable given the uncontested lead likely to be set.
Dorothea HopeKTB Fit 44/100
Dorothea Hope has shown ordinary form in two starts over this trip, finishing fourth and fifth without suggesting she is ahead of the pack. The Tim Easterby yard records a modest 8% strike rate from more than 2000 runs at Thirsk. With only two career runs the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions on ground or further progress. Her held-up style is another negative on a day when the leader may get an easy time.
Prosperity AngelKTB Fit 43/100
Prosperity Angel showed some promise when third on debut over this trip. The form is hard to weigh up given the small sample and low data confidence. Trainer Ben Haslam operates at a 6% strike rate at Thirsk while jockey Andrew Mullen is unmentioned here. Unproven on good ground, she steps up in class with plenty to find.
PurristaKTB Fit 40/100
Purrista showed some promise when third on debut over this trip and will be suited by the quick ground if that run is anything to go by. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 45 runs at Thirsk. Only one run means everything else is guesswork at this stage. Her held-up style adds to the difficulties against an uncontested leader.
ShanikoKTB Fit 32/100
Shaniko has shown modest form in three runs and sits in the same bracket again today. He has placed once at this trip but the wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Thirsk adds little encouragement. His held-up run-style is far from ideal given the expected pace shape.
KTB verdict
My Maria is the KTB Selection. She has the strongest recent placed form at the trip, including a second on this track last time, and her front-running style is a major plus given the high-confidence lone-leader pace shape that should hand her an uncontested lead. First-time headgear may bring about a little more and the Watson yard's record at Thirsk adds to the appeal. The main dangers are Time Glory, who has shown steady form and sits just behind on Fit, and Inglewood, who has shown some ability from a low draw. Mollisha and the headgear-wearing Veruca Salt are the most interesting of the remaining principals, while several of the bigger-priced newcomers and out-of-form hold-up types look up against it.
KTB Selection My Maria
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the pace shape expected to favour the leader?
The supplied pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
How does My Maria's run-style match the race shape?
My Maria tends to make the running or race on the pace, which aligns with the expected lone leader scenario and should allow her to control the race from the front.
Which horses are stepping up in class?
My Maria, Time Glory, Inglewood, Mollisha, Dorothea Hope, Prosperity Angel and Purrista are all stepping up in class.
Which runners are held up and could be disadvantaged by the pace shape?
Travellers Girl, Dorothea Hope, Purrista and Shaniko are all described as held up and usually produce their effort late.
What is the trainer strike rate at Thirsk for the yard of the selection?
Archie Watson has a 21% strike rate at Thirsk from 39 runs.
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