2:15 Beverley
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes over the minimum 5f at Beverley on good to firm ground features a field of 14 two-year-olds, several of whom are still relatively unexposed. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with True Charm heading the numerical ratings on 62 while the next four principals sit between 45 and 48. With a strong pace shape anticipated from multiple front-runners, the race is likely to place a premium on those who can settle and produce their effort late.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners and several others who like to race prominently. Lexington Boom and Ard As A Rock are likely to contest the lead early from their respective stalls, with Spectacular Diver also poised to go forward. This could set the race up for hold-up performers, as the pace may collapse late, posing the key question of which of the patiently ridden runners can best capitalise on any softening of the front end.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1True Charm KTB Selection62/100True Charm is a modest performer on the evidence of three runs.
- 2Needin' U48/100Lightly raced with just two runs and a modest 04 form line so far, so any judgement has to be cautious.
- 3Mugheer47/100Mugheer is a first-time runner from a yard that operates at a solid 15% strike rate at Beverley.
- 4Lexington Boom47/100Placed twice in as many starts without winning, this modest 2-year-old has shown enough to be competitive at this level.
- 5Ard As A Rock45/100Ard As A Rock has shown only modest form in two starts to date, finishing fifth then ninth.
- 6Mubehir44/100Mubehir has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last without suggesting he is ready to be competitive in a Class 5.
- 7Scottys Rocket44/100Scottys Rocket showed little on debut when ninth over this trip at this track.
- 8Tiggywinkle44/100Tiggywinkle has only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative.
- 9Taj Mahal Palace44/100Taj Mahal Palace is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 10One More Tilda43/100One More Tilda is a debutant with limited public form to go on.
- 11Desert Outlaw42/100Desert Outlaw has shown little in two starts so far, finishing sixth on this track last time without threatening.
- 12Classy Jaguar41/100Classy Jaguar showed very little on debut when finishing seventh here over this trip on good to firm ground.
- 13Ubettabequeen41/100Ubettabequeen is a newcomer from the Tim Easterby yard.
- 14Spectacular Diver37/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts over this trip, finishing no better than second.
The contenders
True Charm KTB Fit 62/100
True Charm is a modest performer on the evidence of three runs. Dropping back to an untried 5f looks a fresh question while first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer has too small a sample at Beverley to judge while the jockey's modest 9% strike rate from 22 rides here offers limited encouragement. Having been placed once from one run on good to firm, the colt is competitive on that surface without having won. Usually held up and producing its effort late, True Charm should be suited if the anticipated strong pace materialises.
Needin' U KTB Fit 48/100
Needin' U is lightly raced with just two runs and a modest 04 form line so far, so any judgement has to be cautious. First-time headgear is now tried from a wide draw in stall 10 and the trip looks about right having already had one go at it. Trainer has a solid 14% strike-rate at Beverley while the jockey is operating at a 10% level here. The yard's overall trainer-jockey combination reads 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up, this one could benefit if the race falls apart late on good to firm ground where it remains unproven.
Mugheer KTB Fit 47/100
Mugheer is a first-time runner from a yard that operates at a solid 15% strike rate at Beverley. Clifford Lee is even more effective here with a 21% record from 119 rides. With nothing on the track to go on the colt's chance will rest on his pedigree and sales background. The trainer-jockey partnership shows a 16% strike rate with an A/E of 0.92 from a large sample. By Soldier's Call, he represents a sire with a 9% overall win rate, and his chance will be clearer once seen in action.
Lexington Boom KTB Fit 47/100
Placed twice in as many starts without winning, this modest 2-year-old has shown enough to be competitive at this level. The wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative at a sharp track like Beverley. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate here from decent-sized samples. Lexington Boom tends to make the running or race on the pace and has course form having finished second here on his most recent start. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm, remaining competitive without a win on that surface.
Ard As A Rock KTB Fit 45/100
Ard As A Rock has shown only modest form in two starts to date, finishing fifth then ninth. The drop back to 5f from 6f asks a fresh question while the small sample means both ground suitability and overall ability remain unclear. Trainer David Evans has a 9% strike rate from 117 runs at Beverley and Joanna Mason is operating at 14% from 239 rides here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could set the tempo early from a favourable draw in stall 3. He has one run on good to firm without winning or placing.
The rest of the field
MubehirKTB Fit 44/100
Mubehir has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last without suggesting he is ready to be competitive in a Class 5. He drops back to 5f today after a poor effort over 6f, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Beverley from a big sample gives no particular reason for optimism here either.
Scottys RocketKTB Fit 44/100
Scottys Rocket showed little on debut when ninth over this trip at this track. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Beverley from a large sample. With only one run on the clock and no meaningful going data, this remains very much an unknown.
TiggywinkleKTB Fit 44/100
Tiggywinkle has only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative. The drop back from 6½f to 5f asks a fresh question and the going remains unknown with such a small sample. Trainer Ollie Pears and jockey Jason Hart both have modest but established records at Beverley.
Taj Mahal PalaceKTB Fit 44/100
Taj Mahal Palace is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The Brian Ellison yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Beverley from a large sample, while Ben Robinson is operating at 7% here. Pedigree and sales background offer the only pointers, but with low data confidence this one is hard to weigh up on debut.
One More TildaKTB Fit 43/100
One More Tilda is a debutant with limited public form to go on. The sales and pedigree background offers the only real clues and connections have a modest record at Beverley between them. Expect a watching brief on this first outing.
Desert OutlawKTB Fit 42/100
Desert Outlaw has shown little in two starts so far, finishing sixth on this track last time without threatening. The draw in stall 13 looks another negative on a sharp 5f at Beverley. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here and the small-sample data means any firm conclusions would be risky.
Classy JaguarKTB Fit 41/100
Classy Jaguar showed very little on debut when finishing seventh here over this trip on good to firm ground. The yard has a poor record at Beverley and the jockey is only 5% from 121 rides at the track. With just one run in the book and low data confidence this is very much a watching brief.
UbettabequeenKTB Fit 41/100
Ubettabequeen is a newcomer from the Tim Easterby yard. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 2385 runs at Beverley while jockey Sean Kirrane is operating at 6% from 104 rides here. With a low data confidence on this debutant the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which is not supplied here.
Spectacular DiverKTB Fit 37/100
Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts over this trip, finishing no better than second. The yard and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here at Beverley, figures that match their overall records. Lightly raced with only three runs, so there is still scope for improvement though the bare form gives limited encouragement.
KTB verdict
True Charm tops the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. While modest on his three starts to date, the drop in class, first-time headgear and the strong pace shape that should suit his hold-up style give him a clear chance to show improved form. The main dangers are the placed Lexington Boom, who brings the best track form but has the widest draw to contend with, and the debutant Mugheer from the strong Burke-Lee combination at this venue. Needin' U and Ard As A Rock round out the shortlist of those who can feature.
KTB Selection True Charm
This is the narrative read of the 2:15 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to benefit from the expected strong pace?
True Charm and Needin' U are both usually held up and produce their effort late, so they are positioned to capitalise if the pace collapses as the strong pace shape suggests.
What is the course record of the trainer with the most runners at Beverley in this field?
Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate at Beverley from 2385 runs.
How many of the principals have course form at Beverley?
Only Lexington Boom has course form, having finished second on his one run here.
Which runners are making their racecourse debut in this contest?
Mugheer, Taj Mahal Palace, One More Tilda and Ubettabequeen are all newcomers with no racecourse experience.
What is the combined trainer-jockey strike rate at Beverley for the yard of the selection?
The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Beverley from a small sample of 4 runs.
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