2:15 Catterick
This Class 3 novice stakes over 7f at Catterick features a field of seven two-year-olds with the majority either making their debut or having just a single run under their belts. The race is run on good ground and lacks a natural leader, which according to the KTB numbers points to a steadily-run, tactical contest where being well placed could prove decisive. Overall the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 57 and 48, underlining the open nature of the event and the limited racecourse evidence available.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in the field the pace shape is expected to be steady rather than strong, making this a tactical affair in which handy positioning should pay dividends. Several runners, including the selection National Pride, Palace Legacy and Darrington Golf, are noted as held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether they can be switched on in time to capitalise if the race develops into a sprint for the line. Those able to race prominently or take a sensible early position without using too much gas could hold an advantage in what looks set to be a slowly-run novice.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1National Pride KTB Selection57/100National Pride showed only modest form when sixth on debut and remains lightly raced with just the one run to go on.
- 2Waakabb52/100Placed third on debut over this trip at Redcar, showing enough to suggest there is more to come.
- 3Palace Legacy52/100Palace Legacy showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip.
- 4A La Montagne51/100Sir Mark Prescott has a solid 27% strike rate at Catterick from 111 runs.
- 5Stormy Winter50/100Stormy Winter is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 21% strike rate at Catterick from 19 runs.
- 6Breaking The Habit50/100Tim Easterby has a solid 12% strike rate at Catterick from a huge sample.
- 7Darrington Golf48/100Darrington Golf showed only modest form when finishing seventh on debut over this trip.
The contenders
National Pride KTB Fit 57/100
National Pride showed only modest form when sixth on debut and remains lightly raced with just the one run to go on. The trip looks suitable enough on paper though the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky. William Haggas has a solid 34% strike rate at Catterick from 96 runs while Cieren Fallon boasts a 32% strike rate at the track from 19 rides, figures that demand respect. This represents a drop in class and the son of Night Of Thunder is the KTB Selection. He is unproven on good ground and has no course form, yet the yard's record here and the fact he is lightly raced keep him at the head of the ratings with a KTB Fit of 57.
Waakabb KTB Fit 52/100
Waakabb shaped with promise when third on debut over this trip at Redcar, showing enough to suggest there is more to come. The Crisford yard has a strong 38% strike rate at Catterick from eight runs, which adds to the interest. Jason Hart takes the ride though his 14% strike rate at the track from a large sample of rides is more modest, and the small overall data set means everything has to be treated with caution. Unproven on good ground with no course form, this remains a lightly raced colt who could improve past several rivals. His KTB Fit of 52 places him right in the mix in a race short on hard evidence.
Palace Legacy KTB Fit 52/100
Palace Legacy showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and is another who could step forward from that initial effort. James Tate's yard has a solid 24% strike rate at Catterick from 33 runs while Connor Beasley is a 14% shot at the track from 308 rides. He is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late, which may not be ideal given the likely steady pace. With only one run on the board and the going sample too small to judge, this remains very much a watching brief. The KTB Fit of 52 reflects a horse of ability but one with questions still to answer.
A La Montagne KTB Fit 51/100
A La Montagne is a debutant from the Sir Mark Prescott yard, which has a solid 27% strike rate at Catterick from 111 runs. With no racecourse form available the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background, and as a son of Dubawi he carries a 17% overall win rate for the sire from a huge sample. Luke Morris is a 17% rider at the track from 152 rides, giving the partnership a credible look on paper. There is no course win on record and the KTB Fit of 51 reflects the usual caution attached to an unraced Prescott newcomer in a race of this nature. Low data confidence is inevitable but the yard's local record cannot be ignored.
The rest of the field
Stormy WinterKTB Fit 50/100
Stormy Winter is a newcomer from the Saeed bin Suroor yard, which operates at a 21% strike rate at Catterick from 19 runs. Pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here given the complete lack of racecourse evidence, with the Dark Angel sire line showing an 11% overall win rate from a vast sample. Clifford Lee takes the ride but the low data confidence means any conclusions remain tentative and the KTB Fit of 50 reflects that reality.
Breaking The HabitKTB Fit 50/100
Breaking The Habit is a debutant trained by Tim Easterby, who has a solid 12% strike rate at Catterick from a huge sample of 1917 runs. The assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background as there is no racecourse form, with the Dark Angel sire line again showing an 11% overall win rate. Sean Kirrane is a 17% rider at the track from 115 rides yet the KTB Fit of 50 and low data confidence mark this as an unknown quantity at this stage.
Darrington GolfKTB Fit 48/100
Darrington Golf showed only modest form when finishing seventh on debut over this trip and is stepping up in class. Tim Easterby's yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Catterick from a huge sample while Duran Fentiman is a 6% rider at the track from 519 rides. A held-up type who usually produces his effort late, he is unproven on good ground with no course form. With just one run on the clock and a going sample too small to judge, this remains very much an unknown quantity and the KTB Fit of 48 reflects that modest profile.
KTB verdict
National Pride is the KTB Selection. He showed only modest form when sixth on debut yet remains lightly raced, drops in class, and benefits from the strong local record of trainer William Haggas at Catterick. The steadily-run nature of the race may not play to his held-up style but the yard's 34% strike rate here and the limited opposition give him the edge on KTB ratings. The main dangers are Waakabb, who shaped well when third at Redcar and represents a yard in excellent form at the track, and Palace Legacy, who also showed promise on debut and could improve further. A La Montagne cannot be entirely dismissed on pedigree and the Prescott factor, but the selection looks to hold the aces on the balance of what is known.
KTB Selection National Pride
This is the narrative read of the 2:15 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical rather than strongly run?
The pace shape lacks a leader and no horse is obviously wanting the lead, pointing to a steadily-run affair in which being handy should pay.
Which runners are likely to be held up and come from off the pace?
National Pride, Palace Legacy and Darrington Golf are all noted as held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
What is William Haggas's strike rate at Catterick?
34% strike rate at Catterick from 96 runs with an A/E of 1.09.
How many of these runners have racecourse experience?
Three runners have a run under their belts — National Pride (sixth), Waakabb (third), Palace Legacy (third) and Darrington Golf (seventh) — while the remaining three are debutants.
Which trainer has the strongest recent record at Catterick in this field?
The Crisford yard has a 38% strike rate at Catterick from eight runs, the highest percentage in the field.
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