8:30 Roscommon
A 17-runner bumper at Roscommon over 1m7f110y on good ground looks an open and speculative affair with plenty of lightly raced or unraced four-year-olds on show. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Iron Sword heading the figures on 61 despite only one previous run, while the next four principals sit between 58 and 50. With no established leader in the field the race is expected to develop into a steadily-run, tactical event where positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical bumper where being handy should pay dividends. Most of the principals are held-up or mid-division types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace in the latter stages. The key question is whether any horse can get into a workable position early enough without using up too much energy, given the lack of obvious pace to latch onto.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Iron Sword KTB Selection61/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative.
- 2Wee Fallon58/100Wee Fallon has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions.
- 3Mr Enigma52/100Mr Enigma showed some promise when finishing third on his only start to date.
- 4Charles Kickham51/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with only two runs so far and modest form on show.
- 5Conor'salwaysright50/100Conor'salwaysright is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background.
- 6Mountain Sky50/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with just two runs behind him, finishing second on debut before a modest fifth last time.
- 7Rocky Alfonso49/100Rocky Alfonso is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 8Lola O C48/100Lola O C is a debutant so the form book offers nothing concrete.
- 9Lonelyharbourwall47/100Lonelyharbourwall is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 10Kippersandcustard46/100Kippersandcustard is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 11Throwmedownsomthin44/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative.
- 12She Means Business42/100She Means Business is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 13Hidden Empire40/100Hidden Empire is a debutant whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 14Hot Rock Harry40/100Hot Rock Harry has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing seventh then fifth.
- 15Georges Park39/100Georges Park is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 16Inishtearaght39/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with only one run to go on, finishing fifth on debut over 2m1f.
- 17Teddy Jones38/100Teddy Jones is a debutant with no racecourse experience so far.
The contenders
Iron Sword KTB Fit 61/100
Iron Sword is the KTB Selection. This lightly raced four-year-old has only one run to go on, so any assessment remains tentative. He showed little when fifth on debut over 2m and now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. The Andrew Slattery yard brings a solid 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 152 runs, while jockey Mr A P Ryan operates at a 25% strike rate from a small sample of eight rides here. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, though the evidence is limited. Unproven on good ground adds another layer of uncertainty, but he tops the KTB Fit ratings.
Wee Fallon KTB Fit 58/100
Wee Fallon has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The drop back in trip is an unknown that could suit or could expose further limitations. Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue has a solid 17% strike-rate at Roscommon from 18 runs, though the jockey has no recorded rides at the track. This held-up performer will be coming from the rear in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair. With a KTB Fit of 58 he is the closest rated to the selection but brings modest form at best.
Mr Enigma KTB Fit 52/100
Mr Enigma showed some promise when finishing third on his only start to date. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 14 runs while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Settling typically in midfield, he should be well placed to make a move in a tactical race lacking strong early pace. Placed on his sole run on good ground, he arrives with a KTB Fit of 52 and enters calculations.
Charles Kickham KTB Fit 51/100
Charles Kickham is a lightly raced four-year-old with only two runs so far and modest form on show. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer Kieran Purcell has a solid 10% strike rate from 29 runs at Roscommon but the jockey is operating at just 4% from 24 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run contest. The KTB Fit of 51 keeps him in the mix among the principals.
Conor'salwaysright KTB Fit 50/100
Conor'salwaysright is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background. The yard's modest 3% strike-rate at Roscommon from a big sample of 172 runs is a clear negative. The jockey has had too few rides here to form any reliable view. With no going or course data available he carries plenty of unknowns into this steadily-run bumper. Rated 50 on KTB Fit he is the last of the principals but faces a stiff task on debut.
The rest of the field
Mountain SkyKTB Fit 50/100
Mountain Sky is a lightly raced four-year-old with just two runs behind him, finishing second on debut before a modest fifth last time. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer and jockey bring solid enough records at Roscommon but the small overall sample means the form must be treated with caution.
Rocky AlfonsoKTB Fit 49/100
Rocky Alfonso is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background are the only real pointers available and data confidence is low. Trainer Stephen Curling has a solid 13% strike-rate at Roscommon while jockey Danny Doyle is still seeking his first winner from 13 rides here.
Lola O CKTB Fit 48/100
Lola O C is a debutant so the form book offers nothing concrete. Pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here along with the yard's solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon from a decent-sized sample. The jockey's modest 11% record at the track from only nine rides adds a note of caution.
LonelyharbourwallKTB Fit 47/100
Lonelyharbourwall is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate from 517 runs at Roscommon. Pedigree and sales background will decide whether this one is ready first time.
KippersandcustardKTB Fit 46/100
Kippersandcustard is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 37 runs at Roscommon. Low data confidence means any judgement rests almost entirely on pedigree and sales background.
ThrowmedownsomthinKTB Fit 44/100
Throwmedownsomthin is a lightly raced four-year-old with only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative. That debut was uncompetitive and he now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. Trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Roscommon adds little encouragement.
She Means BusinessKTB Fit 42/100
She Means Business is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Roscommon from a decent-sized sample while the jockey is operating at a low 2% strike-rate here from 50 rides. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment.
Hidden EmpireKTB Fit 40/100
Hidden Empire is a debutant whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard has only one run at Roscommon so far and the jockey is 0-9 at the track. First-time headgear is applied for this 1m7f110y start on good ground.
Hot Rock HarryKTB Fit 40/100
Hot Rock Harry has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing seventh then fifth. The drop back in trip today poses a fresh question as he has not been tried over this distance before. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate from 188 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has only three rides here which is too small a sample to judge.
Georges ParkKTB Fit 39/100
Georges Park is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only pointers but with low data confidence overall the picture remains sketchy. Trainer John Patrick Ryan has a modest 4% strike rate from 103 runs at Roscommon while jockey Mr O McGill has had only two rides here.
InishtearaghtKTB Fit 39/100
Inishtearaght is a lightly raced four-year-old with only one run to go on, finishing fifth on debut over 2m1f. He drops back in trip to an untried 1m7½f today and tries headgear for the first time, so plenty of unknowns remain. Trainer has a modest 7% strike rate from 28 runs at Roscommon while the jockey's three rides here give too small a sample to judge.
Teddy JonesKTB Fit 38/100
Teddy Jones is a debutant with no racecourse experience so far. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from 15 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has had only two rides here which is too small a sample to judge. Pedigree and sales background are the main pointers but with low data confidence any assessment remains tentative.
KTB verdict
Iron Sword is the KTB Selection at the head of a tight Fit rating cluster. His trainer and jockey both hold above-average records at Roscommon and he is expected to improve for the drop in trip in a race that lacks established pace. The main dangers are Mr Enigma, who showed promise when third on debut and is well suited to a tactical affair from midfield, and Mountain Sky, who has shown some ability in two starts and now tries headgear. Charles Kickham and Wee Fallon are next in the reckoning among a field where many runners carry significant unknowns on debut or with limited form.
KTB Selection Iron Sword
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely to be a steadily-run affair where being handy pays.
Which horses are held up in running?
Iron Sword, Wee Fallon, Charles Kickham, Mountain Sky and Hot Rock Harry are all described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon in this field?
Ian Patrick Donoghue has a 17% strike rate at Roscommon from 18 runs, matching Henry De Bromhead's 17% from a much larger sample.
How many runners are making their racecourse debut?
Seven runners are debutants: Rocky Alfonso, Lola O C, Lonelyharbourwall, Kippersandcustard, She Means Business, Hidden Empire, Georges Park and Teddy Jones.
Who has the best jockey record at the track among the principals?
Mr A P Ryan has a 25% strike rate at Roscommon from eight rides, while Mr J Dunne has a 50% strike rate from a very small sample of two rides.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies