2:58 Redcar
A small but competitive Class 6 handicap over 1m7f217y at Redcar on good to firm ground sees four runners line up. The KTB Fit scores highlight Billy Bathgate as the clear top pick on 59, with Stitching Wheel on 51 and Lillistar on 39 the other principals in a race where class-dropping and course knowledge could prove decisive. Recent form is modest across the board, underlining the limited nature of the field, yet several hold relevant course or ground stats that shape the contest.
How the race shapes up
With only four runners the pace shape is modest and likely to be even. Billy Bathgate from draw 1 and Sweet Cicely from draw 2 can take up forward positions, while Stitching Wheel and Lillistar are expected to track or race prominently given their run-styles. The key question is whether the step up in trip for several runners will expose stamina limitations or allow the course-proven performers to assert in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Billy Bathgate KTB Selection59/100Billy Bathgate is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent months without winning.
- 2Stitching Wheel51/100Limited horse who won on her only previous visit to Redcar but has been largely out of form since.
- 3Lillistar39/100Limited performer who has shown some consistency without winning often.
- 4Sweet Cicely29/100Limited performer who has struggled this season with a string of poor efforts.
The contenders
Billy Bathgate KTB Fit 59/100
Billy Bathgate is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent months without winning, as his form figures of 434346 suggest. The 10-year-old has won once from two starts at this track and holds a solid record on good to firm ground having scored twice from five starts. Stepping up markedly in trip for the first time in a while asks a fresh question, yet his drop in class is a positive and he is proven at Redcar. Trainer Ewan Whillans has a 12% strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.19 from 26 runs, while jockey Jason Hart brings a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.02 from 504 rides at Redcar. The combination of course form, going affinity and the trainer's local record makes him the KTB Selection.
Stitching Wheel KTB Fit 51/100
Stitching Wheel is a limited horse who won on her only previous visit to Redcar but has been largely out of form since, reflected in her recent figures of -67761. She steps up in trip again today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous tries at this distance and remains unproven on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark improvement from the 4-year-old. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.36 from 43 runs offers little encouragement, although the jockey's 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.95 from nine rides at the track is respectable. Her sole course success remains the main positive in an otherwise patchy profile.
Lillistar KTB Fit 39/100
Lillistar is a limited performer who has shown some consistency without winning often, with form figures of 1-2653 underlining a lack of progress. She has been placed three times from five starts on good to firm and once at this trip from six attempts, though she has failed to add to her sole career success in 32 runs. This represents her first run at Redcar, where trainer Micky Hammond has a 7% strike rate and A/E of 0.81 from 320 runs. Jockey Aiden Brookes has a 4% strike rate and A/E of 0.44 from 57 rides at the track, while the trainer-jockey combination shows a 6% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.85. Her going record offers some hope but the lack of course form and modest trainer stats at Redcar limit her appeal.
The rest of the field
Sweet CicelyKTB Fit 29/100
Sweet Cicely is a limited performer who has struggled this season with a string of poor efforts shown by her form of -00096. She steps up markedly in trip for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, both unknowns, and has no win or place from two runs on good to firm or from her sole run at Redcar when seventh. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate at Redcar from 113 runs.
KTB verdict
Billy Bathgate stands out as the KTB Selection in this modest Class 6 handicap. His course win from two starts, solid good to firm record and recent consistency give him the strongest profile, especially while dropping in class. Stitching Wheel's Redcar success is a threat if the first-time headgear and trip work in her favour, while Lillistar's placed efforts on the surface cannot be ignored despite her lack of course form. Sweet Cicely looks up against it on recent evidence.
KTB Selection Billy Bathgate
This is the narrative read of the 2:58 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Redcar?
Billy Bathgate has won once from two starts at this track and Stitching Wheel has won on her only previous visit to Redcar.
Who is proven on good to firm ground in this field?
Billy Bathgate has two wins from five starts on good to firm and Lillistar has been placed three times from five starts on the surface. Stitching Wheel has had no runs on good to firm and Sweet Cicely has had two runs with no win or place.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Stitching Wheel and Sweet Cicely are both wearing first-time headgear.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Redcar for the trainer of the KTB Selection?
Ewan Whillans has a 12% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.19 from 26 runs.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Billy Bathgate is dropping in class.
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