2:24 Ripon
This Class 4 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Stakes over 6f at Ripon features a small but interesting field of four two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 54 and 48, underlining how little separates the runners on known form, with all four still lightly raced and carrying first-time headgear in three cases. War Gaming heads the KTB rankings on the back of two placed efforts, while the race looks open given the tentative pace shape and several unknowns over trip and surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with low confidence, as only The Mean Fiddler has shown any inclination to make the running or race prominently. Sole Ruler and Reflect On Glory are both held-up types who produce their effort late, which could leave War Gaming with options from draw 4. The key question is whether the race develops enough pace to suit the closers or if The Mean Fiddler can dictate matters up front on only his second start.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1War Gaming KTB Selection54/100War Gaming shaped with promise when finishing second on debut over 5f and backed that up with a solid third last time.
- 2The Mean Fiddler52/100The Mean Fiddler showed promise when second on debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time.
- 3Sole Ruler50/100Sole Ruler has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing seventh on this track last time.
- 4Reflect On Glory48/100Reflect On Glory showed fair pace when finishing third on debut here over this trip.
The contenders
War Gaming KTB Fit 54/100
War Gaming shaped with promise when finishing second on debut over 5f and backed that up with a solid third last time. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having already placed at the trip without winning, while first-time headgear is now applied. A fair performer on the evidence so far but remains lightly raced with only two runs behind him. George Scott has a 24% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1 from 33 runs, and Cieren Fallon brings a 20% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.97 from 30 rides. The colt is unproven on good ground and has no course form on record. From a middle draw he should be versatile enough in a race where the pace is uncertain.
The Mean Fiddler KTB Fit 52/100
The Mean Fiddler showed promise when second on debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time. The trip is an unknown that could suit or expose him further. First-time headgear is another new factor on only his second start. The John and Sean Quinn yard has an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.79 from 572 runners, and Jason Hart is a 14% winner at Ripon with an A/E of 0.99 from 328 rides. The colt is unproven on good ground with no course form. His front-running style gives him a clear role in a race where the pace shape is tentative.
Sole Ruler KTB Fit 50/100
Sole Ruler has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing seventh on this track last time. The draw in stall 1 could help but the small sample makes it hard to be confident about trip or ground preferences. Trainer Paul Midgley has a 10% strike rate at Ripon from 444 runs with an A/E of 1.02, while jockey Paul Mulrennan operates at a 12% strike rate from 603 rides here with an A/E of 1.04. He has two runs on good without placing and has course form of one seventh. His held-up run style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in what could be a slowly-run affair.
The rest of the field
Reflect On GloryKTB Fit 48/100
Reflect On Glory showed fair pace when finishing third on debut here over this trip. That run came from stall three and the yard has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Ripon from a big sample. With only one piece of form to go on the colt remains hard to weigh up. He is unproven on good ground, has course form of one third, and his held-up style will see him delivered late.
KTB verdict
War Gaming is the KTB Selection. He has the best Fit Score of 54 and has already shown fair form in two starts, placing both times while still lightly raced. The application of first-time headgear and the step up to 6f look logical next steps for a colt who can race handily in a race with a tentative pace shape. The Mean Fiddler, Reflect On Glory and Sole Ruler are the main dangers, with the first-named holding the strongest claims on debut form and his likely prominent run style.
KTB Selection War Gaming
This is the narrative read of the 2:24 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good ground but has the highest KTB Fit Score?
War Gaming with a KTB Fit of 54/100.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Three: War Gaming, The Mean Fiddler and Reflect On Glory.
Which horse has course form of one third-place finish?
Reflect On Glory.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ripon for the handler of Sole Ruler?
10% from 444 runs with an A/E of 1.02.
Which runner is described as a front-runner with limited evidence?
The Mean Fiddler.
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