5:10 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap over 1m 75y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together a field of six modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores range from 58 down to 37, underlining an ordinary contest where consistency and suitability to the conditions will be key. With a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage according to the pace shape, the race could pose problems for those held up off the pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to one clear front-runner with little pressure expected, allowing an uncontested lead that can prove difficult for closers to overcome. Pretty Spirited is the only front-runner in the field and should take up that role from draw six, while the other five runners are all held-up types who will look to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the leader can dictate matters throughout or if one of the patient runners can bridge the gap on this good to firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Straight A KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, placing in four of his last six starts.
- 2Theme Park52/100Modest performer who has been in decent nick of late with a win and two places from his last four starts.
- 3Venetian Lion46/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts before a much better second at this trip last time.
- 4G'Emmethegreenlite41/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, including a remote fourth on this track as a 2-year-old.
- 5Symphony Of Joy40/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a 4-7063 record from seven runs.
- 6Pretty Spirited37/100Limited performer who has won twice at this trip but has struggled to build on those efforts lately.
The contenders
Straight A KTB Fit 58/100
Straight A is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, placing in four of his last six starts. His solid record on good to firm features one win and three places from 11 runs, although he steps up in trip today after his most recent start over 7f. The Michael Appleby yard posts a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 623 runs with an A/E of 1.24, and the trainer and jockey combination shows 9/55 (16%) with an A/E of 1.29 and +£23.50 LSP. This five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, though he showed little on his only previous run at the course. He has the highest KTB Fit Score in the field at 58.
Theme Park KTB Fit 52/100
Theme Park is a modest performer who has been in decent nick of late with a win and two places from his last four starts. He has shown he handles this trip and ground, and his placed effort here last time suggests the track suits. First-time headgear is now tried on a horse who has plenty of racing under his belt. The Nigel Tinkler and Faye McManoman partnership records 102/1179 (9%) with an A/E of 0.88 and -£299.48 LSP, while the trainer has an 8% strike rate at Nottingham from 466 runs. This six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late and has a KTB Fit Score of 52.
Venetian Lion KTB Fit 46/100
Venetian Lion is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts before a much better second at this trip last time. Stall one could be useful on a track that favours those drawn low and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. William Haggas has a solid 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 294 runs, while the trainer and jockey combination posts 439/2052 (21%) with an A/E of 0.91. This three-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late and steps up in class having recorded a KTB Fit Score of 46.
G'Emmethegreenlite KTB Fit 41/100
G'Emmethegreenlite is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, including a remote fourth on this track as a 2-year-old. He steps up markedly in trip today from 6f which asks a fresh question of him. The Seb Spencer yard has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Nottingham, and the trainer and jockey combination shows 33/346 (10%) with an A/E of 0.94 and -£14.91 LSP. This three-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late on limited evidence and has a KTB Fit Score of 41.
The rest of the field
Symphony Of JoyKTB Fit 40/100
Symphony Of Joy is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a 4-7063 record from seven runs. He drops back in trip to 1m having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at the distance, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Nottingham and the going remains an unknown on this lightly-raced profile. This four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late and has a KTB Fit Score of 40.
Pretty SpiritedKTB Fit 37/100
Pretty Spirited is a limited performer who has won twice at this trip but has struggled to build on those efforts lately. He has shown some ability on good to firm ground yet looks modest on balance and was well held when last seen at this track. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 34 runs while the jockey has a 6% record at Nottingham. This four-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and has a KTB Fit Score of 37.
KTB verdict
Straight A is the KTB Selection. He arrives with the strongest Fit Score of 58 and has been placing regularly of late while enjoying a solid record on good to firm. The Appleby yard's healthy figures at Nottingham add to the appeal of a horse who should be suited by the way the race is expected to unfold. His main dangers are Theme Park, who has been in good heart and showed an affinity for the track last time, and Venetian Lion, who is open to improvement with first-time headgear and the benefit of a low draw for the Haggas stable.
KTB Selection Straight A
This is the narrative read of the 5:10 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Pretty Spirited is the only front-runner in the field and should take up the running given the lone leader pace shape.
How many of the runners are held-up types?
Five of the six runners are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip from 6f?
G'Emmethegreenlite steps up markedly in trip today from 6f.
Which trainer has a 0% strike rate at Nottingham from 13 runs?
Seb Spencer has a 0% strike rate at Nottingham from 13 runs.
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Straight A has the highest KTB Fit Score at 58.
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