2:30 Ascot
The Chesham Stakes is a Class 1 Listed race for two-year-olds over 7f on good to firm ground at Ascot, featuring a field of 15 with plenty of lightly raced types and debutants. KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Revels on 56, with several others between 54 and 51, underlining how open the race looks on the available form. Most runners are stepping up in class having won or placed in modest company, and with the majority unproven on good to firm the going adds another layer of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a steady gallop with several prominent runners likely to contest the lead early. Revels from draw 2 and Sword Salute from draw 1 can be forward, while Celtic Charioteer and Sydney Carton are also inclined to race prominently. The key question is whether the pace holds up on this ground or if those coming from off it, such as Romanza who showed pace on debut, can close effectively over the stiff 7f.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Revels KTB Selection56/100Revels made a winning start over this trip last time but remains very lightly raced with only one run to go on.
- 2Celtic Charioteer54/100Celtic Charioteer showed little on debut then won a modest novice over this trip last time.
- 3Whispering Moon54/100Whispering Moon showed promise when third on debut over this trip.
- 4Sydney Carton53/100Sydney Carton showed some promise when third on debut over 7½f and now drops back in trip to 7f where he has already been placed once.
- 5Romanza51/100Romanza showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over 6f here last month.
- 6Aix La Chapelle51/100Aix La Chapelle made a winning start over this trip and looks to have been brought along nicely by a yard that knows what it is doing with two-year-olds.
- 7Sword Salute48/100Sword Salute showed promise when third on debut then improved to win a 7f maiden on good to firm at Newmarket last time.
- 8Time For The Moon48/100Time For The Moon showed promise when third on debut then won a 7f maiden last time.
- 9Nola Soul47/100Nola Soul won her only start over this trip.
- 10South Dakota47/100South Dakota showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut over 6f.
- 11Aperoll46/100Aperoll won his only start over 6.5f on good to firm ground.
- 12Sea Venture45/100Sea Venture won on debut over 6f but steps up to 7f here which asks a fresh question.
- 13On Just Terms43/100On Just Terms is a newcomer from a yard that has a modest 6% strike rate at Ascot from 144 runs.
- 14Bayside42/100Bayside has shown mixed form in three runs, winning once but finishing only midfield last time.
- 15Pikachu40/100Pikachu showed some promise when second on debut over this trip.
The contenders
Revels KTB Fit 56/100
Revels made a winning start over this trip last time but remains very lightly raced with only one run to go on. The Burke yard posts a solid 9% strike rate at Ascot while Sam James has an A/E of 1.05 from his 31 rides here. With such a small amount of form in the book this is still very much an unknown quantity. The trainer and jockey combination holds a 16% strike rate together though the LSP is negative. Stepping up in class from a maiden win, Revels is the KTB selection and will be forward from a low draw. Unproven on good to firm ground.
Celtic Charioteer KTB Fit 54/100
Celtic Charioteer showed little on debut then won a modest novice over this trip last time. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Ascot while the jockey has struck at a 17% rate from just six rides here. With only two career runs and low data confidence the form must be treated cautiously. The combination holds a 10% strike rate together. Stepping up in class, he is likely to be forward in the race. Unproven on good to firm ground.
Whispering Moon KTB Fit 54/100
Whispering Moon showed promise when third on debut over this trip. The Richard and Peter Fahey stable have a 20% strike rate from five runs at Ascot while Oisin Orr is still seeking his first winner from 32 rides here. With only one run on the clock the colt remains low confidence and needs to improve to figure in this Class 1. The trainer and jockey hold an 18% strike rate together. Stepping up in class from a promising debut, he has no experience of good to firm ground.
Sydney Carton KTB Fit 53/100
Sydney Carton showed some promise when third on debut over 7½f and now drops back in trip to 7f where he has already been placed once. The small sample means his ability remains hard to gauge with any confidence. Trainer James Owen holds an 8% strike rate from 39 runs at Ascot while jockey Cieren Fallon is operating at 11% from 116 rides here. The combination posts a 19% strike rate. Stepping up in class having been competitive on good to firm, he is likely to race prominently from draw 3.
Romanza KTB Fit 51/100
Romanza showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over 6f here last month. The step up to 7f now asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run under its belt. Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a 10% strike rate from 133 runs at Ascot while James McDonald is operating at 7% from 96 rides at the track. He has already run once at the course when fourth. Stepping up in class and unproven on good to firm, his run-style suggests he could be handy in a race where pace may be important.
The rest of the field
Aix La ChapelleKTB Fit 51/100
Aix La Chapelle made a winning start over this trip and looks to have been brought along nicely by a yard that knows what it is doing with two-year-olds. The trainer's 14% strike rate at Ascot from nearly 900 runs shows the operation is well established at the track while Ryan Moore's 14% record from over 1200 rides adds further reassurance though both figures sit slightly below par on A/E. Unproven on good to firm.
Sword SaluteKTB Fit 48/100
Sword Salute showed promise when third on debut then improved to win a 7f maiden on good to firm at Newmarket last time. The form looks ordinary and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Ascot from 72 runs offers little encouragement. Lightly raced with only two starts this year so this step up into Group company asks a big question.
Time For The MoonKTB Fit 48/100
Time For The Moon showed promise when third on debut then won a 7f maiden last time. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 72 runs at Ascot is a negative while the jockey's record here is more respectable. With only two runs on the clock and limited data overall this is one to treat with caution.
Nola SoulKTB Fit 47/100
Nola Soul won her only start over this trip. The yard has a poor record at Ascot and the jockey is operating below his usual level here. With just one run on the board and no other meaningful data the form must be treated with real caution.
South DakotaKTB Fit 47/100
South Dakota showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut over 6f. The step up to 7f is an unknown that could suit or expose him further given the small sample. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate from 896 runs at Ascot while Wayne Lordan is operating at 7% from 117 rides here.
AperollKTB Fit 46/100
Aperoll won his only start over 6.5f on good to firm ground. He steps up to 7f today where he already has a win from one run at the trip. Both trainer and jockey have modest 7% strike rates at Ascot from large samples.
Sea VentureKTB Fit 45/100
Sea Venture won on debut over 6f but steps up to 7f here which asks a fresh question. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate from 65 runs at Ascot while Tudhope posts a solid 8% from 304 rides at the track. With only one run on the clock overall this remains a low-confidence read.
On Just TermsKTB Fit 43/100
On Just Terms is a newcomer from a yard that has a modest 6% strike rate at Ascot from 144 runs. The jockey is even quieter here with a 4% record from 57 rides. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background.
BaysideKTB Fit 42/100
Bayside has shown mixed form in three runs, winning once but finishing only midfield last time. He now steps up to 7f for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The yard's modest 5% strike rate from 260 runs at Ascot adds little confidence here.
PikachuKTB Fit 40/100
Pikachu showed some promise when second on debut over this trip. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 72 runs at Ascot while Egan is operating at 5% from 264 rides here. With only one run on the board and low data confidence this remains very much a watching brief.
KTB verdict
Revels is the KTB selection in a race full of unknowns where most of the field have limited form and several are unproven on the ground. His winning debut over the trip, combined with the Burke yard's solid record at Ascot and Sam James's positive A/E figure, give him the edge on what little is known. The main dangers are headed by the Aidan O'Brien pair Aix La Chapelle and South Dakota, with Whispering Moon and Sydney Carton also capable of improving past their modest recent form to challenge.
KTB Selection Revels
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course experience at Ascot?
Romanza has run once here when fourth over 6f.
Which runners have proven form on good to firm ground?
Sydney Carton has been placed once on good to firm, Sword Salute has a win from one run on good to firm, and Aperoll won his only start on good to firm.
Who are the most experienced trainers at Ascot in this race?
A P O'Brien has a 14% strike rate from 896 runs at Ascot, Charlie Fellowes has a 10% strike rate from 133 runs, and Richard Hannon has a 7% strike rate from 746 runs.
Which jockey has the strongest Ascot record by A/E in this field?
Jonny Peate has an A/E of 2.7 from six rides at Ascot.
How many runners are stepping up in class?
Twelve runners are stepping up in class: Revels, Celtic Charioteer, Whispering Moon, Sydney Carton, Romanza, Sword Salute, Time For The Moon, Nola Soul, Aperoll, Sea Venture, Bayside and Pikachu.
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