4:50 Ascot
The Britannia Stakes is a fiercely competitive Class 2 Heritage Handicap for three-year-old colts and geldings over a straight mile at Ascot on good to firm ground. A field of 31 features a clutch of progressive types with solid recent form, though the wide straight and varying levels of experience add layers of complexity. KTB's Fit ratings identify a tight group at the top, headed by Pathein on 65, with several others clustered in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining the depth and the challenge of finding the winner.
How the race shapes up
With a large field on a straight track the early pace is likely to be honest, though the supplied pace shape suggests it may not be overly strong overall. Several prominent runners such as Blue Courvoisier from stall one and Organise could look to secure forward positions, while hold-up types like Pathein from the far side may need luck in running. The key question is whether those drawn high can cross or find cover without using up too much energy, or whether the race will be won by a horse able to slot in from a more central berth and deliver a strong straight-line effort.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Pathein KTB Selection65/100Useful performer who has finished third in both starts this season after opening his account as a juvenile.
- 2Organise61/100Useful performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip.
- 3Outback Heat60/100Useful performer who has won both starts at this trip including a course success at Ascot on his only previous visit here.
- 4Laureate Crown59/100Laureate Crown is a useful 3-year-old who has won both starts this year after a slow start as a juvenile.
- 5Blue Courvoisier59/100Blue Courvoisier is a useful 3 year old with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts.
- 6Tales Of Wisdom59/100Tales Of Wisdom is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip.
- 7Wechaad58/100Useful performer who showed his best form when third over 7f at this track last season.
- 8New Connection57/100Useful performer who showed fair form when winning on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race last time.
- 9Conclave56/100Useful performer who has won two of his three starts including a success at this trip.
- 10Hilitany55/100Hilitany is a useful performer on the back of a win last time but now steps up from 7f to an untested 1m.
- 11Bobby McGee52/100Bobby McGee arrives in strong form having won his last three starts including two at this trip.
- 12Flushing Meadows51/100Useful performer who has finished no better than fifth in three runs this season after a solid juvenile campaign.
- 13Wise Prince51/100Useful performer who won over this trip on debut and has held his form well in two strong 1m races since.
- 14We're Goosers51/100Useful performer who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in decent form.
- 15Charly51/100Charly is a useful colt who has won three of his five starts including both attempts at this trip.
- 16Jamestown51/100Jamestown has shown useful form in four runs this year and looks well up to this level on ratings.
- 17Langstone50/100Useful performer who has won two of his four starts and arrives in form after a recent success.
- 18Runman50/100Useful performer who has won two of his three starts and drops back to a trip he has already scored over.
- 19St Anton49/100Useful performer who has won two of his last three starts including at this trip.
- 20Richie's Rocket49/100Useful performer who has been below form in two starts this season after a promising debut third last year.
- 21Exclusive Code48/100Useful performer who showed progressive form when landing a 1m maiden last time out.
- 22Victory Tip47/100Useful performer who showed smart form when winning a maiden over this trip on debut.
- 23Intense Vision47/100Useful performer who has won both starts on the all-weather and was a creditable third on turf last time.
- 24New Monarch46/100Useful sort who ran well when second over C&D on his penultimate start.
- 25Capall Rasa45/100Capall Rasa is a useful 3-year-old with solid recent form including two wins last season and a pair of respectable efforts this year after a break.
- 26Lion Of Alba44/100Useful performer who won over this trip on good to firm at Newmarket last season.
- 27Crest Of Fire43/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and a third from three starts.
- 28Noelan Star41/100Useful sort who has won two of his three starts including at this trip.
- 29Moonfall40/100Moonfall is a useful performer on the back of some strong runs in useful company last season and he shaped well when fifth on his return at Newmarket.
- 30Vincenzo Peruggia39/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip and shown he handles good to firm ground.
- 31Winding Stream38/100Fair performer who won on debut and has since shown placed form at this trip.
The contenders
Pathein KTB Fit 65/100
Pathein is a useful performer who has finished third in both starts this season after opening his account as a juvenile. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having won at the trip last year yet the wide draw in stall 26 looks far from ideal on this straight course. Ed Dunlop has a solid 9% strike rate at Ascot while Rossa Ryan is operating at 10%. The KTB Fit score of 65 marks him out as the top-rated in the race and he arrives with recent form figures of 15-33 that show consistent placed efforts in useful company. His ability is not in doubt but the draw will demand a smart tactical ride from Ryan.
Organise KTB Fit 61/100
Organise is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip. First-time headgear is now applied after a respectable effort in a strong race last time. The Gosden yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Ascot while Doyle is 11% from over 600 rides here. With recent form figures of 1-12 he brings solid credentials and a KTB Fit of 61 that keeps him firmly in the mix. The yard and jockey combination is a positive and the draw in stall nine offers a more manageable starting point than some of his main dangers, although he remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Outback Heat KTB Fit 60/100
Outback Heat is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip including a course success at Ascot on his only previous visit here. The wide draw in stall 18 adds a complication on this straight track but he arrives in form after three runs this year. Trainer and jockey both hold strong recent records at the track with Eustace at 18% and Fraser at 20%. Stepping up in class is the main concern but his KTB Fit of 60 and recent form figures of 131 underline his progressive profile and course-winning ability. The unproven nature of the good to firm ground remains a slight question mark.
Laureate Crown KTB Fit 59/100
Laureate Crown is a useful 3-year-old who has won both starts this year after a slow start as a juvenile. He has already won over this trip and on this going, and his sole visit to Ascot produced a victory. Trainer Hugo Palmer has an 8% strike rate from 190 runs here while Jamie Spencer is 10% from 912 rides at the track. Recent form figures of 856-11 reflect a clear upward curve and his KTB Fit of 59 places him right in the thick of it. The combination of course form, trip suitability and going preference makes him a major player despite the step up in class.
Blue Courvoisier KTB Fit 59/100
Blue Courvoisier is a useful 3 year old with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already won over this trip and shown he handles good to firm ground. Stall one could be an advantage here though his run at Ascot resulted in a modest fourth. With a KTB Fit of 59 and recent form figures of 12-241 he brings strong claims on paper. Clive Cox has a 10% strike rate at the track and Saffie Osborne is 14% from 126 rides here, giving the combination a solid base. The low draw may allow him to secure an economical position early.
The rest of the field
Tales Of WisdomKTB Fit 59/100
Tales Of Wisdom is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip. The Godolphin colt looks open to further improvement as a lightly raced 3 year old though he is yet to face a truly strong Class 2 field. Appleby and Buick are both operating at a solid level here with respective 15 percent and 14 percent strike rates at Ascot.
WechaadKTB Fit 58/100
Wechaad is a useful performer who showed his best form when third over 7f at this track last season. He steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the wide draw in stall 27 is far from ideal. Trainer Roger Varian has a solid 12% strike rate at Ascot from 471 runs and jockey Ray Dawson matches that figure from his 75 rides here.
New ConnectionKTB Fit 57/100
New Connection is a useful performer who showed fair form when winning on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race last time. Dropping back from 1m3f to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is another unknown. Graffard has a solid 18% strike rate at Ascot from 38 runs though McDonald is operating closer to expectations with a 7% record from 96 rides here.
ConclaveKTB Fit 56/100
Conclave is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts including a success at this trip. Drops back from 1m0½f today which looks a sensible move given his record. Trainer's 9% strike rate from over a thousand Ascot runs and the jockey's 6% from 85 rides both reflect the stiff task faced from stall 29.
HilitanyKTB Fit 55/100
Hilitany is a useful performer on the back of a win last time but now steps up from 7f to an untested 1m. She acts on good to firm having won once from two starts on the surface. The yard's modest 6 percent strike rate at Ascot and wide draw in stall 23 are both negatives.
Bobby McGeeKTB Fit 52/100
Bobby McGee arrives in strong form having won his last three starts including two at this trip. The useful 3 year old is well connected at Ascot and the yard's modest 5 percent strike rate from 19 runs here does not tell the full story given the quality of runners he has sent. High data confidence but the good to firm ground remains an unknown with only seven career runs on the board.
Flushing MeadowsKTB Fit 51/100
Flushing Meadows is a useful performer who has finished no better than fifth in three runs this season after a solid juvenile campaign. Dropping back to 1m looks a reasonable move though he has drawn widest of all in stall 22 and this is his first time in headgear. Both trainer and jockey have solid 14% strike rates at Ascot from large samples.
Wise PrinceKTB Fit 51/100
Wise Prince is a useful performer who won over this trip on debut and has held his form well in two strong 1m races since. The wide draw in stall 15 is a clear negative on a track where getting a good early position often matters. Trainer's solid 14 percent strike rate at Ascot gives some confidence but the inexperienced jockey adds an unknown element.
We're GoosersKTB Fit 51/100
We're Goosers is a useful performer who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in decent form. He steps up to a mile for the first time today having been beaten on his only previous try at the distance and the small sample on good to firm ground leaves suitability open to question. Palmer has an 8 percent strike rate at Ascot from 190 runs while Murphy is operating at 11 percent from 521 rides here.
CharlyKTB Fit 51/100
Charly is a useful colt who has won three of his five starts including both attempts at this trip. He has solid recent form and the ratings back him up strongly at this level. The yard has no previous runners at Ascot while Pasquier has a modest 6% strike rate from 31 rides here.
JamestownKTB Fit 51/100
Jamestown has shown useful form in four runs this year and looks well up to this level on ratings. He steps up to 1m having been placed without winning at the trip last time and the wide draw in stall 25 adds uncertainty. The trainer holds a strong 13% strike rate from 23 runs at Ascot while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
LangstoneKTB Fit 50/100
Langstone is a useful performer who has won two of his four starts and arrives in form after a recent success. He has already placed at this trip though he is drawn widest of all in stall 20 which will make things tougher. Trainer Clive Cox has a solid 10 percent strike rate at Ascot from over 500 runs while jockey Rob Hornby is yet to add to his tally here from 26 rides.
RunmanKTB Fit 50/100
Runman is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts and drops back to a trip he has already scored over. First-time headgear is now fitted after he was beaten at 1m0½f last time. The Gosden yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Ascot while Tudhope is operating close to expectations with an 8% record here.
St AntonKTB Fit 49/100
St Anton is a useful performer who has won two of his last three starts including at this trip. He acts well on good to firm ground and has solid placed form at Ascot. Wide draw in stall 21 is the main negative from a jockey who has a 7 percent strike rate here from 746 rides.
Richie's RocketKTB Fit 49/100
Richie's Rocket is a useful performer who has been below form in two starts this season after a promising debut third last year. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Beckett has an 8 percent strike rate from 441 runs at Ascot while Crouch is operating at 10 percent from 112 rides here.
Exclusive CodeKTB Fit 48/100
Exclusive Code is a useful performer who showed progressive form when landing a 1m maiden last time out. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Ascot from 192 runs suggests this is not their strongest track while the jockey fares better with a 9% record from 236 rides. Has won at this trip but the going remains an unknown on just three career starts.
Victory TipKTB Fit 47/100
Victory Tip is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning a maiden over this trip on debut. Has not built on that in two subsequent runs though both came in stronger company. Trainer and jockey records at Ascot are modest and the draw in stall 10 is far from ideal.
Intense VisionKTB Fit 47/100
Intense Vision is a useful performer who has won both starts on the all-weather and was a creditable third on turf last time. Only one run at this trip so far without success and the small overall sample means his ability on good to firm ground and around Ascot remains untested. Jockey Cieren Fallon has a solid 11 percent strike rate from 116 rides at the track.
New MonarchKTB Fit 46/100
New Monarch is a useful sort who ran well when second over C&D on his penultimate start. He has since won a 7f handicap at Newmarket but was well below that level last time. Steps back up to a mile today from a wide draw.
Capall RasaKTB Fit 45/100
Capall Rasa is a useful 3-year-old with solid recent form including two wins last season and a pair of respectable efforts this year after a break. He drops back to 1m today having won at the trip from just two attempts while his last run came over 1m2f. The Tom Dascombe yard has a 6% strike rate from 152 runs at Ascot and Richard Kingscote is 7% from 265 rides here.
Lion Of AlbaKTB Fit 44/100
Lion Of Alba is a useful performer who won over this trip on good to firm at Newmarket last season. He shaped as if needing the run when seventh on return at Haydock and should come on for it now. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample is a slight negative.
Crest Of FireKTB Fit 43/100
Crest Of Fire is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and a third from three starts. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his only visit to Ascot last season but that was in a lesser race. The trainer's modest record here offers little encouragement while the jockey has a solid but unspectacular strike rate at the track.
Noelan StarKTB Fit 41/100
Noelan Star is a useful sort who has won two of his three starts including at this trip. The wide draw in stall 17 is a clear negative on a straight track. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Ascot and the jockey's complete lack of winners from 32 rides here add to the reservations.
MoonfallKTB Fit 40/100
Moonfall is a useful performer on the back of some strong runs in useful company last season and he shaped well when fifth on his return at Newmarket. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having failed to land a blow over the trip on his sole previous attempt and the wide draw in stall 28 is far from ideal. George Boughey has a 6% strike rate from 125 runs at Ascot while Zac Lloyd is yet to record a winner from his 12 rides here.
Vincenzo PeruggiaKTB Fit 39/100
Vincenzo Peruggia is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and shown he handles good to firm ground. Recent efforts have been a bit mixed though and he is drawn wide in stall 12. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ascot.
Winding StreamKTB Fit 38/100
Winding Stream is a fair performer who won on debut and has since shown placed form at this trip. Dropping back from 1m2f looks a sensible move though he is drawn widest of all in stall 24. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 3% strike rate here at Ascot.
KTB verdict
Pathein is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer with placed form this season and previous success at the trip, and the combination of Ed Dunlop and Rossa Ryan provides a reliable platform despite the wide draw in stall 26. His KTB Fit of 65 tops the ratings and he shapes as though he can handle the rise in distance. The main dangers are headed by Organise, who brings first-time headgear and strong yard and jockey figures, and Outback Heat, who boasts an Ascot win and excellent course records for both trainer and jockey. Laureate Crown and Blue Courvoisier also enter calculations having shown winning form at this trip and on the ground.
KTB Selection Pathein
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Pathein has the highest KTB Fit Score at 65/100.
How many horses have won at Ascot previously?
Outback Heat and Laureate Crown have both won at Ascot on their sole previous visit.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Ascot in this race?
Harry Eustace has an 18% strike rate at Ascot, while John & Thady Gosden have 14% and Charlie Appleby 15%.
Which horses are stepping up in class for this Britannia Stakes?
Outback Heat, Tales Of Wisdom, We're Goosers, Runman, St Anton, Exclusive Code, Noelan Star and Vincenzo Peruggia are all stepping up in class.
How many horses are unproven on good to firm ground?
At least twelve horses including Organise, Outback Heat, Tales Of Wisdom, New Connection, Conclave, Bobby McGee, Flushing Meadows, Wise Prince, We're Goosers, Charly, Jamestown and Victory Tip have no runs on good to firm.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies