3:05 Thirsk
This Class 6 nursery handicap at Thirsk over six furlongs on good ground features a field of twelve two-year-olds where the KTB numbers point to a modest bunch overall. Lady Dublin stands out with a top Fit score of 62 having already shown her best when winning a similar event here last time, while the next four principals sit between 53 and 60. The race asks questions of several runners stepping up or down in trip, with first-time headgear on a few and a low confidence pace shape that looks tentative.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with low confidence, suggesting a possible front-runner but on thin evidence. Lady Dublin tends to make the running or race prominently from her low draw of four, which could allow her to dictate matters early. A couple of held-up types such as Claret And Blues and Spirit of Mary are likely to come from off the pace, posing the key question of whether the leader can get an easy enough time up front or if the race will be fought out from mid-pack to the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lady Dublin KTB Selection62/100Modest filly who showed her best form when winning a similar race here last time, having already scored once at this trip from just two attempts.
- 2Claret And Blues60/100Modest 2-year-old who has shown ordinary form in four starts, finishing no better than fifth.
- 3Enemy Action54/100Modest 2yo who has shown only poor form in three runs to date, finishing no closer than sixth.
- 4Crystal Kraken53/100Modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed once from four starts.
- 5Eevee Star53/100Modest 2-year-old who has shown consistent placed form in three runs at 5f.
- 6Mardy Bum51/100Mardy Bum has shown modest form in five runs and looks to have reached his level.
- 7Inns And Out48/100Modest 2-year-old who has shown a bit of ability in three starts, finishing placed once at this trip.
- 8Lairy Mary45/100Lairy Mary is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across six runs, including a recent win at a lower level but also several lesser efforts.
- 9Liveadream44/100Liveadream has shown modest form in three runs, finishing second on debut before two lesser efforts including a seventh last time over 7f.
- 10Bea Kindly40/100Bea Kindly has shown limited ability in three runs to date, finishing ninth on this track over 5f last time.
- 11Trust Havana35/100Limited horse who has shown very little in three starts over this trip.
- 12Spirit of Mary33/100Spirit of Mary has shown just modest ability in four runs and sits in the limited category for this company.
The contenders
Lady Dublin KTB Fit 62/100
Lady Dublin is a modest filly who showed her best form when winning a similar race here last time, having already scored once at this trip from just two attempts. She acts well from a low draw and the first-time headgear could sharpen her up further. The trainer records a 7% strike rate from 219 runs at Thirsk. Jake Dickson takes the ride with a 25% strike rate at the track from eight rides and an A/E of 1.75. Recent form reads 44631 and she has two runs on good ground without a win or place. As the selection she holds the strongest claims in a modest field.
Claret And Blues KTB Fit 60/100
Claret And Blues is a modest 2-year-old who has shown ordinary form in four starts, finishing no better than fifth. He has twice tried this trip without success and remains hard to fancy from a wide draw. The yard have a solid 11% strike-rate at Thirsk. Ethan Tindall rides with a 9% strike rate at the track from eleven rides and an A/E of 1.71. Recent form figures are 5366 and he has three runs on good ground without a win or place. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2/47 with an A/E of 0.37.
Enemy Action KTB Fit 54/100
Enemy Action is a modest 2yo who has shown only poor form in three runs to date, finishing no closer than sixth. Steps up from 5f to 6f today which asks a fresh question, though he has tried the trip once already without success. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample of 219 runs offers no particular encouragement. Harry Russell is aboard with a 12% strike rate at the track from 74 rides and an A/E of 1.74. Recent form reads 603 and he drops in class. He has one run on good ground without a win or place.
Crystal Kraken KTB Fit 53/100
Crystal Kraken is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed once from four starts. Recent form of 9735 suggests he is competitive at this level without looking progressive. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Thirsk from a small sample of six runs. Rossa Ryan takes the mount with a 28% strike rate at the track from 18 rides and an A/E of 1.15. He is placed once from one run on good ground and drops in class. No course form on record.
Eevee Star KTB Fit 53/100
Eevee Star is a modest 2-year-old who has shown consistent placed form in three runs at 5f. Steps up to 6f for the first time today having been placed once at the trip on pedigree, though the move asks a fresh question. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's 13% strike rate at Thirsk from 68 runs is respectable. Ryan Sexton rides with an 11% strike rate at the track from 57 rides and an A/E of 0.99. Recent form is 355 and he is placed once from one run on good ground while dropping in class.
The rest of the field
Mardy BumKTB Fit 51/100
Mardy Bum has shown modest form in five runs and looks to have reached his level. He has failed to place in two starts at this trip and first-time headgear is now fitted in a bid to sharpen him up. The yard has a solid 14% strike-rate at Thirsk from a large sample of 701 runs.
Inns And OutKTB Fit 48/100
Inns And Out is a modest 2-year-old who has shown a bit of ability in three starts, finishing placed once at this trip. Dropping back from 7f should suit and the low draw is a plus, though he still has to improve to trouble the better types. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at Thirsk from a huge sample of 2148 runs is well established.
Lairy MaryKTB Fit 45/100
Lairy Mary is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across six runs, including a recent win at a lower level but also several lesser efforts. She steps up to 6f for the first time today after mostly racing at 5f, which asks a fresh question, and her sole run here at Thirsk resulted in a midfield finish. Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate from 2148 runs at this track.
LiveadreamKTB Fit 44/100
Liveadream has shown modest form in three runs, finishing second on debut before two lesser efforts including a seventh last time over 7f. Dropping back to 6f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Thirsk from 98 runs offers little encouragement. This remains a limited performer with scope to improve but not much to shout about on what we have seen.
Bea KindlyKTB Fit 40/100
Bea Kindly has shown limited ability in three runs to date, finishing ninth on this track over 5f last time. The step up to 6f is a fresh question while the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample offers no particular encouragement. Course form reads 9th and 6th from two starts here.
Trust HavanaKTB Fit 35/100
Trust Havana is a limited horse who has shown very little in three starts over this trip. Stall 12 looks no help on a track where low numbers are often favoured. Small-sample trainer record at Thirsk adds further uncertainty.
Spirit of MaryKTB Fit 33/100
Spirit of Mary has shown just modest ability in four runs and sits in the limited category for this company. She has placed once at today's trip but is still finding the frame hard to reach overall. The yard's modest record at Thirsk adds no real encouragement.
KTB verdict
Lady Dublin is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard having won a similar race here last time with the first-time headgear potentially helping her further from a favourable low draw. Her proven ability at the trip and tendency to race prominently should serve her well in a race with a tentative pace shape. The main dangers are headed by Crystal Kraken and Eevee Star who both have placed form and drop in class, while Claret And Blues and Enemy Action cannot be entirely dismissed though they have more to prove. The remainder of the field look limited or in need of improvement to feature.
KTB Selection Lady Dublin
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lady Dublin | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Claret And Blues | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Enemy Action | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Crystal Kraken | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Eevee Star | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Mardy Bum | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Inns And Out | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Lairy Mary | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Liveadream | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Bea Kindly | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Trust Havana | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Spirit of Mary | 12/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won at Thirsk in a similar race?
Lady Dublin showed her best form when winning a similar race here last time.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Three runners are wearing first-time headgear: Lady Dublin, Eevee Star and Mardy Bum.
Which trainer has the largest sample of runners at Thirsk?
Tim Easterby has a record from 2148 runs at Thirsk.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Thirsk among the principals?
Jake Dickson has a 25% strike rate at Thirsk from eight rides.
Which horse is stepping up from 5f to 6f for the first time today?
Eevee Star steps up to 6f for the first time today having shown consistent placed form at 5f.
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