2:32 Wetherby
This Class 6 handicap over a mile at Wetherby brings together a field of largely modest three-year-olds, with official ratings tightly clustered and little to choose between many on paper. The KTB Fit Scores reflect a race where no standout performer emerges, the top figure being just 62 for the selection Horwich, underlining the modest level of the contest. With the going Good and no course-and-distance winners on record, the race is likely to be decided by which horse handles the new trip best or shows a return to something near its peak form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even gallop with a mix of run-styles across the field, though several prominent racers could push the tempo early from low to middle draws. Horwich and Supreme Dancer are likely to be ridden forward, while wide-drawn horses such as Thestral from stall 13 and Tommo's Ginjaninja from stall 12 may have to work harder to find a position. The key question is whether the race will be run at a true enough pace to allow hold-up performers to close, or if the prominent types can dictate matters and make the race their own up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Horwich KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who has shown little for some time and finished no better than sixth in nine starts this year.
- 2Thestral52/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when second at Kempton last time having been off for three months.
- 3Celtic Chariot51/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts to date, finishing no better than sixth.
- 4Tommo's Ginjaninja50/100Modest performer who has shown consistency without winning, placing in three of his six starts including once at this trip.
- 5Supreme Dancer48/100Supreme Dancer has shown fair form in recent starts with a solid second on return over 7f and has placed twice at today's 1m trip without winning.
- 6Deep Sleep48/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and remains winless after six starts.
- 7Sports Day47/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his last three starts including a placed effort at this trip.
- 8Thornaby Annie46/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with two placed efforts in similar company.
- 9Inferno45/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts this year after a placed effort on debut.
- 10Sailor Batt43/100Modest performer who has been consistent in recent runs without winning, placing twice at this trip from three attempts.
- 11Hey Havana43/100Modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form, finishing second on reappearance over 7f at this track.
- 12Balmoral Boy42/100Modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, placing once in two starts.
- 13Howsham40/100Modest performer who has struggled since his early promise and was well held in two starts this year.
- 14Space Moon39/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in seven starts and looks up against it from stall 11.
The contenders
Horwich KTB Fit 62/100
Horwich is a modest performer who has shown little for some time and finished no better than sixth in nine starts this year. The Ruth Carr and James Sullivan combination both hold solid records at Wetherby, the trainer operating at an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 1.2 from 56 runs while the jockey posts 13% with an A/E of 1.55 from 55 rides. He drops in class here but steps up to an untried 1m trip on ground he has never tackled, with no course form on record adding another unknown. Recent form figures of 779046 reflect his current modest level. The KTB Fit Score of 62 is the highest in the field and he is the selection.
Thestral KTB Fit 52/100
Thestral is a modest performer who showed a bit more when second at Kempton last time having been off for three months. He steps up to 1m for the first time today after two previous runs at the trip without success and the wide draw in stall 13 is far from ideal. Hugo Palmer has yet to strike at Wetherby from 14 attempts but Oisin Murphy rides with a solid 33% strike rate here from just nine rides. Recent form figures read 51-802. The KTB Fit Score of 52 places him second in the rankings.
Celtic Chariot KTB Fit 51/100
Celtic Chariot is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts to date, finishing no better than sixth. He steps up from 6f to 1m today which asks a fresh question, though he has tried the trip once already without success. Jason Hart has a solid 16% strike rate from 77 rides at Wetherby while the Kevin & Lauren Frost yard's small-sample record here offers no real steer. Recent form figures are 366. The KTB Fit Score of 51 sees him third among the principals.
Tommo's Ginjaninja KTB Fit 50/100
Tommo's Ginjaninja is a modest performer who has shown consistency without winning, placing in three of his six starts including once at this trip. He drops back from 1m4f today which looks a more suitable distance on balance while first-time headgear is now tried. The Michael & David Easterby yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Wetherby with an A/E of 0.77 from 68 runs and Billy Garritty is 11% from 75 rides here. Recent form figures read 235230. The KTB Fit Score stands at 50.
Supreme Dancer KTB Fit 48/100
Supreme Dancer has shown fair form in recent starts with a solid second on return over 7f and has placed twice at today's 1m trip without winning. The limited-class three-year-old steps up in distance again here having been competitive on good ground before though without a win on it. Richard & Peter Fahey have a 25% strike rate at Wetherby from a small sample of four runs, though the yard and Barry McHugh are 0% from 15 combined starts. Recent form figures are 2557-2. The KTB Fit Score is 48.
The rest of the field
Deep SleepKTB Fit 48/100
Deep Sleep is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and remains winless after six starts. First-time headgear is now reached for having failed to land a blow at this trip on his last two outings. The Tim Easterby and Cam Hardie combination has an 11% strike rate here from a big sample of runners.
Sports DayKTB Fit 47/100
Sports Day is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last three starts including a placed effort at this trip. He drops back from 1m2f today which looks a sensible move given he has been placed once in two runs at 1m. Michael Bell has a modest record at Wetherby while Callum Rodriguez fares better with a 17% strike rate here.
Thornaby AnnieKTB Fit 46/100
Thornaby Annie is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with two placed efforts in similar company. She steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the Adrian Nicholls yard has yet to trouble the judge from eight runs at Wetherby.
InfernoKTB Fit 45/100
Inferno is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts this year after a placed effort on debut. He steps up to 1m for the first time having been placed once at the trip last season though that came in a small-field event. Edward Bethell strikes at 15% here from 13 runs while Kevin Stott is 8% from 26 rides.
Sailor BattKTB Fit 43/100
Sailor Batt is a modest performer who has been consistent in recent runs without winning, placing twice at this trip from three attempts. First run at Wetherby and unproven on good ground add unknowns, though the yard's modest 9% strike-rate from 11 runs here offers little encouragement. He is drawn widest of all in stall 14.
Hey HavanaKTB Fit 43/100
Hey Havana is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form, finishing second on reappearance over 7f at this track. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Geoffrey Harker and Sam James both have modest records at Wetherby.
Balmoral BoyKTB Fit 42/100
Balmoral Boy is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, placing once in two starts. Recent form of 3658 suggests he is vulnerable in this company and the wide draw in stall 9 will not help. Nigel Tinkler has an 11% strike rate from 176 runs at Wetherby while Faye McManoman is yet to score from 15 rides here.
HowshamKTB Fit 40/100
Howsham is a modest performer who has struggled since his early promise and was well held in two starts this year. He drops back to 1m today having looked stretched over 1m2f last time, though he has failed to land a blow in two previous tries at this trip. First-time headgear is now fitted.
Space MoonKTB Fit 39/100
Space Moon is a limited performer who has shown little spark in seven starts and looks up against it from stall 11. He drops back to 1m having failed to trouble the judge at that trip twice before. Brian Ellison has a solid 14% strike rate here from a big sample but Ben Robinson is operating below that level with a 7% record from 14 rides.
KTB verdict
Horwich tops the KTB Fit Scores and is named the selection in a race where the general standard is modest. While he has shown little for some time, the solid Wetherby records of both trainer Ruth Carr and jockey James Sullivan provide some encouragement, and the drop in class may help him show more than of late. The main dangers are likely to come from Thestral, who showed a bit more last time and has Oisin Murphy aboard, and Celtic Chariot, who steps up in trip but has a more favourable draw. Supreme Dancer and Tommo's Ginjaninja, the latter now in first-time headgear, are others who can feature if the race shape falls their way.
KTB Selection Horwich
This is the narrative read of the 2:32 Wetherby. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wetherby racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and why is it the selection?
Horwich has the highest KTB Fit Score of 62 and is the KTB Selection as it rates clear of the remainder in a modest field.
How many horses are unproven on good ground?
Three horses are unproven on good ground: Horwich, Sailor Batt and Balmoral Boy.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Wetherby in this field?
Richard & Peter Fahey have a 25% strike rate at Wetherby from a small sample of four runs.
What is the widest draw in the race and which horse has it?
Stall 14 is the widest draw and is occupied by Sailor Batt.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Tommo's Ginjaninja, Deep Sleep and Howsham are all wearing first-time headgear.
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