3:40 Wetherby
This Class 6 handicap division at Wetherby over 5½f on good ground features a field of nine limited performers, several of whom arrive in modest form. The KTB Fit scores underline a lack of depth, with only the top two ratings exceeding 50 and the remainder clustered between 47 and 30. Course placings and good-ground experience will be important factors, yet the overall standard remains modest and the race looks open to one of the more consistent recent runners.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even breakdown with no pronounced speed bias, though several runners prefer to come from off the pace. Newyorkstateofmind from stall 2 and Bayraat drawn in 1 are likely to be prominent early, while Blackjack and Captain Cess should settle in mid-division. The key question is whether the rail draw advantage can be turned into a decisive edge or whether the race will be won by something coming from slightly further back as the field bunches approaching the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Blackjack KTB Selection63/100Blackjack is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 2Newyorkstateofmind53/100Newyorkstateofmind is a limited performer who has been in the frame on his last two starts and looks to have a fair chance from stall 2.
- 3Bayraat47/100Bayraat has been running well in defeat on his last two starts and is proven at this trip having won over it in the past.
- 4Captain Cess44/100Limited performer who has shown just enough to be competitive at this level without winning.
- 5Desert Master43/100Desert Master is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last six starts but lacks real spark at this level.
- 6Amerjeet42/100Limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and is still struggling to find any spark.
- 7Isla Bella36/100Isla Bella is a limited performer who has been largely out of her depth in recent starts and looks vulnerable from stall 8.
- 8Pinpoint34/100Pinpoint is a limited class performer with a long record of modest efforts and has finished no better than sixth on his last four starts.
- 9Aurora's Doublesix30/100Aurora's Doublesix is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency this year with a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Blackjack KTB Fit 63/100
Blackjack is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He drops back to his winning trip today having scored six times over it in the past and shows a solid record on good ground. The yard and jockey both have respectable records at Wetherby though this 9-year-old makes his first start here. Recent form figures of -49075 underline his current struggles, yet the return to 5½f offers a glimmer of hope given his history at the distance. Alan Brown’s 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.46 from 68 runs and Tom Eaves’s 16% strike rate with an A/E of 2.02 from 63 rides provide some encouragement from a middle draw.
Newyorkstateofmind KTB Fit 53/100
Newyorkstateofmind is a limited performer who has been in the frame on his last two starts and looks to have a fair chance from stall 2. He has placed here once from a single run at Wetherby and is 4-50 at today's trip. Ruth Carr has an 11% strike-rate from 56 runs at the track while James Sullivan is familiar with the venue. His recent form reads 70-026, showing he can be competitive at this level without winning. The 9-year-old has been placed once from 11 starts on good ground and his course third adds to his local knowledge, though he remains without a win on the surface.
Bayraat KTB Fit 47/100
Bayraat has been running well in defeat on his last two starts and is proven at this trip having won over it in the past. He has placed once from a single run at Wetherby and is 3 from 7 on good ground without winning. The 10-year-old is limited on the balance of his career form though and both trainer and jockey have below-par records at the track. Recent figures of 005-22 reflect his current level of consistency without breaking through. Tom Tate’s 10% strike rate at Wetherby carries an A/E of 0.68 from 124 runs and Clifford Lee’s 8% strike rate shows an A/E of 0.56 from 24 rides, suggesting the pair may find things tougher at this venue despite the horse’s placed efforts.
Captain Cess KTB Fit 44/100
Captain Cess is a limited performer who has shown just enough to be competitive at this level without winning. He shaped well when second on his return over 6f and now drops back to a trip at which he has placed once from three starts. Trainer is still seeking a first winner here from five runs. The 4-year-old’s recent form of 3406-2 points to gradual improvement on his reappearance and he holds an each-way chance if building on that effort. Adrian Wintle remains winless at Wetherby from five starts and Zak Wheatley is also without a winner from seven rides at the track, though the drop back in distance could suit his prominent style.
The rest of the field
Desert MasterKTB Fit 43/100
Desert Master is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last six starts but lacks real spark at this level. He has won over today's trip in the past yet showed little when tenth on his only previous visit to Wetherby and has managed just one placing from four runs on good ground. The yard's modest 7% strike rate here adds no encouragement.
AmerjeetKTB Fit 42/100
Amerjeet is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and is still struggling to find any spark. Has won at this trip but looks exposed now and was only sixth of seven when he tried this track last time. Trainer remains without a winner from 16 runs at Wetherby while the horse has never tackled good ground.
Isla BellaKTB Fit 36/100
Isla Bella is a limited performer who has been largely out of her depth in recent starts and looks vulnerable from stall 8. She has shown ability on good ground with a win and a place from four runs and has won over today's trip before though she steps back up from 5f today. This is her first run at Wetherby and the trainer also has no previous runners here.
PinpointKTB Fit 34/100
Pinpoint is a limited class performer with a long record of modest efforts and has finished no better than sixth on his last four starts. He has placed once from two runs at Wetherby and holds a fair record on good ground with two wins from ten starts. Stepping back up to 5½f is no problem as he has won three times at the trip but overall he looks vulnerable again from stall four.
Aurora's DoublesixKTB Fit 30/100
Aurora's Doublesix is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency this year with a string of modest efforts. The yard's modest record at Wetherby offers little encouragement and this one has failed to win or place in six runs on good ground. Stepping up to 5½f poses a fresh question having been unsuccessful in 13 previous attempts at the trip.
KTB verdict
Blackjack is the KTB Selection. While he has been out of form for some time, the drop back to his most successful trip, a solid record on good ground and the combined Wetherby record of trainer and jockey give him the best chance of the principals to bounce back. Newyorkstateofmind and Bayraat are the most obvious dangers having both shown recent placed form and local course knowledge, while Captain Cess could improve further dropped back in trip. The remainder of the field look limited and vulnerable on balance.
KTB Selection Blackjack
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Wetherby. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wetherby racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back to a trip where it has won six times previously?
Blackjack drops back to his winning trip today having scored six times over it in the past.
Which runner has the best recent course form at Wetherby?
Bayraat has placed once from a single run at Wetherby, recording a second, while Newyorkstateofmind has a third from one run and Pinpoint has a second from two runs.
Which trainer has yet to record a winner at Wetherby from five previous runs?
Adrian Wintle is still seeking a first winner here from five runs with Captain Cess.
Who holds the strongest jockey record at the track among the declared riders?
Tom Eaves has a 16% strike rate at Wetherby with an A/E of 2.02 from 63 rides.
Which horse is unproven on good ground in this field?
Amerjeet has had no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface.
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