2:35 Downpatrick
The 2:35 at Downpatrick is the Denvir's Of Downpatrick (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (Division I) over 2m5f180y on good to yielding ground. A field of 17 runners lines up, with the KTB numbers highlighting a competitive but rather open-looking contest where the top two in the Fit rankings stand out clearly from the remainder. Western Model heads the KTB Fit scores on 66, followed by Nakassama on 61, with the remainder trailing off from 56 downwards in a race that looks likely to be decided by a mixture of course aptitude, ground suitability and recent competitiveness.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a race that should be truly run, with a good mix of prominent racers and those who come from off the pace. Several runners including Nakassama, Hitthehayson and Steps In The Sand like to race prominently or up with the pace, which should ensure an honest gallop. The key question is whether the prominent types can sustain their effort up the stiff Downpatrick finish or whether the race will fall into the hands of a stronger-travelling horse from just off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Western Model KTB Selection66/100
- 2Nakassama61/100
- 3Hunting Gold56/100
- 4Mount Shenshan55/100
- 5San Franco54/100
- 6Hitthehayson54/100
- 7Steps In The Sand52/100
- 8Thatsmyroadie52/100
- 9Forever And A Day48/100
- 10Watty Show45/100
- 11Artic Chief42/100
- 12Hakensack41/100
- 13Andyourbirdcansing41/100
- 14Go Avel41/100
- 15Beau's Candle39/100
- 16Jolly Potter37/100
- 17Annie Questions35/100
The contenders
Western Model KTB Fit 66/100
Western Model tops the KTB Fit ratings on 66 and is the clear selection. The seven-year-old arrives with form figures of 2525-8 and has shown enough consistency to suggest he can go well here. Andrew Kinirons has a strong 42% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 3.11 from 12 runs, which is a significant positive. Mr N McParlan takes the ride, though the jockey's own 5% strike rate at the track from 177 rides is less encouraging. The horse has recorded one win from four starts on good to yielding ground with three placings, which fits the conditions perfectly, though he has no course form on record. Overall the combination of trainer record at the venue and his own solid level of ability make him the one to beat.
Nakassama KTB Fit 61/100
Nakassama is rated second in the KTB Fit on 61 and looks sure to go well. The six-year-old brings form figures of 01692- and has shown plenty of competitiveness in recent starts. Noel C Kelly and Mr O McGill combine with a solid 24 from 132 record and A/E of 1.23, though the trainer's own 7% strike rate at Downpatrick from 192 runs is modest. The jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track from 44 rides with an A/E of 1.22, which is a plus. He has had four runs on good to yielding without winning or placing, and has recorded sixth and third here without success. His prominent run-style should see him to the fore early in a race that looks likely to be truly run.
Hunting Gold KTB Fit 56/100
Hunting Gold is the third principal in the KTB Fit order on 56. The four-year-old has form figures of 587-0 and is fitted with first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. P J Rothwell and Mr B J Walsh have a modest 3 from 57 record with an A/E of 1.03. The trainer's 7% strike rate at Downpatrick from 595 runs is unconvincing, though the jockey has an 8% strike rate at the track from just 12 rides with a strong A/E of 1.93. He has had only one run on good to yielding ground without placing and has no course form. The headgear is an interesting addition but he will need to improve on what he has shown so far.
Mount Shenshan KTB Fit 55/100
Mount Shenshan sits fourth in the KTB Fit on 55. The eight-year-old has form figures of 445-35 and has been competitive without winning of late. Thomas Mullins has a 21% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 1.3 from 14 runs, which is a notable plus, though the jockey Mr C Mullins is 0 from 3 at the track. He has placed once from five starts on good to yielding ground and remains competitive at that level without having won on it. With no course form on record he will need to travel and jump well in what looks a competitive field. His recent placed efforts suggest he should be thereabouts again.
San Franco KTB Fit 54/100
San Franco completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 54. The six-year-old has form figures of 0/PP-0 and has struggled to make an impact in recent starts. Dermot A McLoughlin and Mr J P Sutton have a modest 1 from 28 record with an A/E of 0.80. The trainer's 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 140 runs is fair, but the jockey is 0 from 3 at the track. He has had three runs on good to yielding without winning or placing and finished fifth on his only previous start here. His recent form is a major concern and he will need a revival to figure in this contest.
The rest of the field
HitthehaysonKTB Fit 54/100
Hitthehayson has a KTB Fit of 54 and has course-winning form here from two starts. His recent form of 532P-0 is mixed but the seven-year-old has a win from five starts on good to yielding with two placings. Ian Patrick Donoghue's 11% strike rate at Downpatrick is respectable.
Steps In The SandKTB Fit 52/100
Steps In The Sand carries a KTB Fit of 52 and has won here from three starts. The seven-year-old has form of 90/88- and a win from seven starts on good to yielding with three placings. Ciaran Murphy's modest 3% strike rate at the track tempers enthusiasm.
ThatsmyroadieKTB Fit 52/100
Thatsmyroadie is rated 52 on KTB Fit but arrives with poor recent form of 000P-0. The six-year-old has had only one run on good to yielding without placing and has no course form. Dermot A McLoughlin's 8% strike rate at Downpatrick offers limited hope.
Forever And A DayKTB Fit 48/100
Forever And A Day has a KTB Fit of 48 and recent form of 7362-6. The seven-year-old has had one run on good to yielding without placing and Peter Maher has a 0% strike rate at Downpatrick from 14 runs, which is a negative.
Watty ShowKTB Fit 45/100
Watty Show is rated 45 on KTB Fit with form of /7P0-7. Henry De Bromhead has a 16% strike rate at Downpatrick but the six-year-old has had two runs on good to yielding without placing and has no course form.
Artic ChiefKTB Fit 42/100
Artic Chief has a KTB Fit of 42 and form of 8P0-37. The five-year-old has placed at this course but has had three runs on good to yielding without winning or placing. Liam Lennon's 3% strike rate at Downpatrick is a concern.
HakensackKTB Fit 41/100
Hakensack is rated 41 on KTB Fit with form of 3269-U. The seven-year-old is unproven on good to yielding ground and P J Rothwell's 7% strike rate at the track is modest.
AndyourbirdcansingKTB Fit 41/100
Andyourbirdcansing has a KTB Fit of 41 and recent form of F50-56. The eight-year-old has placed once from nine starts on good to yielding and has run once here without placing.
Go AvelKTB Fit 41/100
Go Avel is rated 41 on KTB Fit with form of 0/P-94. The seven-year-old has had two runs on good to yielding without placing and pulled up on his only previous start at the course.
Beau's CandleKTB Fit 39/100
Beau's Candle has a KTB Fit of 39 and is an 11-year-old with form of 557-64. He has had two runs on good to yielding without placing and fell on his only previous course start.
Jolly PotterKTB Fit 37/100
Jolly Potter is rated 37 on KTB Fit with poor recent form of 78/0-0. The seven-year-old has had one run on good to yielding without placing and has no course form.
Annie QuestionsKTB Fit 35/100
Annie Questions has the lowest KTB Fit on 35 with form of 544-18. The eight-year-old has had three runs on good to yielding without placing and Brendan Maurice Walsh has a 1% strike rate at Downpatrick overall.
KTB verdict
Western Model is the KTB Selection and has the strongest combination of recent competitiveness and trainer record at Downpatrick. His ability to handle good to yielding ground and consistent placed efforts give him solid claims in a race where the pace should be truly run. Nakassama is the most obvious danger given his prominent style and strong jockey record at the track, while Mount Shenshan and Hitthehayson are capable of playing supporting roles if the leaders go too hard. The remainder of the field look held on the KTB Fit ratings and recent form.
KTB Selection Western Model
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 13 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Western Model | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Nakassama | 2/1 | BresBet |
| Hunting Gold | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Mount Shenshan | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| San Franco | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Hitthehayson | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Steps In The Sand | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Thatsmyroadie | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Forever And A Day | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Watty Show | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Artic Chief | 8/1 | BresBet |
| Hakensack | 11/2 | BetTom |
| Andyourbirdcansing | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Go Avel | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Beau's Candle | 22/1 | BresBet |
| Jolly Potter | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Annie Questions | 20/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 2:35 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Downpatrick?
Western Model's trainer Andrew Kinirons has a 42% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 3.11 from 12 runs.
Which runners have previous winning form at this course?
Hitthehayson has won here from two starts and Steps In The Sand has won here from three starts.
Who is the selection and what is its KTB Fit score?
Western Model is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 66.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Hunting Gold is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horses are unproven or poor on the going?
Hakensack has had no runs on good to yielding and is unproven, while Nakassama, San Franco, Thatsmyroadie, Watty Show, Artic Chief, Go Avel, Beau's Candle, Jolly Potter and Annie Questions have all run on the surface without winning.
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