2:37 Redcar
This Class 6 handicap at Redcar over just short of a mile features an eight-runner field of largely limited three-year-olds on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched, with no standout performer, underlining the modest nature of the race. Ice Show tops the KTB Fit list on 59 despite a modest profile, while the remainder sit between 52 and 37, suggesting a contest where trainer and jockey course records, run-style and the first-time headgear could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Diamond Aura is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to set an even gallop from stall three with little pressure expected. The majority of the field, including Ice Show, Itszaboy, Here Comes Louie, Miss Potomac, Park Lane Penny, Dalamara and Saxon Grace, are held-up or mid-division types, raising the key question of whether any will be able to close the gap on an uncontested leader over this trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ice Show KTB Selection59/100Limited performer who has shown little in four starts to date and now drops in trip with first-time headgear.
- 2Here Comes Louie52/100Limited performer who has shown some encouragement in two recent seconds, both over today's trip.
- 3Miss Potomac50/100Limited filly who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 4Itszaboy50/100Limited performer who has been beaten a long way in all five starts here including a latest fifth over this trip.
- 5Park Lane Penny47/100Limited performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race last time.
- 6Dalamara43/100Limited performer who has shown ordinary form at best since winning a 1m maiden last year.
- 7Saxon Grace41/100Saxon Grace is a limited performer on the balance of her 14 runs and recent form of 746403.
- 8Diamond Aura37/100Limited performer who has been beaten 2-5 lengths in three of her last four starts but has yet to win in nine runs.
The contenders
Ice Show KTB Fit 59/100
Ice Show is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts to date. Dropping in class and in trip now, he sports first-time headgear and is drawn in stall one which could prove beneficial. The yard holds a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 759 runs with an A/E of 1.02, while Mark Winn boasts a 20% strike rate at the track from 64 rides with an A/E of 1.74. The combination of these course records offers the main positives for a horse whose ability remains the chief concern at this level. He typically settles in midfield.
Here Comes Louie KTB Fit 52/100
Here Comes Louie is a limited performer who has shown some encouragement in two recent seconds, both over today's trip. He has run just once here, finishing ninth, while the yard's solid 13% strike rate at Redcar from 216 runs with an A/E of 1.2 is offset by Joanna Mason's more modest 9% record from 149 rides with an A/E of 0.84. The trip looks suitable but the small overall sample and the demands of Class 6 still leave him with plenty to find. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
Miss Potomac KTB Fit 50/100
Miss Potomac is a limited filly who has shown very little in three starts to date. She was well beaten on her handicap debut last time and remains with plenty to prove at this level. Dropping in class, she is yet to record a win or place on good to firm from one run. The yard has an 11% strike-rate at Redcar from 592 runs with an A/E of 0.83 while Oisin Orr is operating at 16% from 105 rides with an A/E of 1.01. She is usually held up though with limited evidence.
Itszaboy KTB Fit 50/100
Itszaboy is a limited performer who has been beaten a long way in all five starts here including a latest fifth over this trip. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at the track from 906 runs with an A/E of 0.87 is no help and the horse has never looked like winning. Alex Jary's 14% record at Redcar from 69 rides with an A/E of 1.91 offers the only slight positive. He typically settles in midfield and has recorded no win or place from two runs on good to firm.
The rest of the field
Park Lane PennyKTB Fit 47/100
Park Lane Penny is a limited performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race last time. She has already won on this ground and at today's trip, but her only previous run here was ordinary. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Redcar. She is usually held up.
DalamaraKTB Fit 43/100
Dalamara is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form at best since winning a 1m maiden last year. Dropping back from 1m4f should suit but has looked one-paced on his last two starts and showed little spark when fourth of nine over course and distance in May. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Redcar while the yard's recent strike-rate adds little confidence. He is usually held up.
Saxon GraceKTB Fit 41/100
Saxon Grace is a limited performer on the balance of her 14 runs and recent form of 746403. She drops back to an untried 1m trip today after her last run over 1m1f while her one start on good to firm produced no win or place. The trainer has only four runs at Redcar so the sample is too small to judge while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate from 270 rides here. She is usually held up.
Diamond AuraKTB Fit 37/100
Diamond Aura is a limited performer who has been beaten 2-5 lengths in three of her last four starts but has yet to win in nine runs. She drops back from 1m2f to 1m for the first time in first-time headgear while drawn in stall 3. Trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from a huge sample and the jockey is a touch better on 11%. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and has been competitive without winning on good to firm.
KTB verdict
Ice Show tops the KTB Fit ratings and is the selection in a race where the majority of the field have plenty to prove. His drop in class, first-time headgear, favourable draw in stall one and the strong course records of both trainer and jockey provide the main reasons for interest. The uncontested lead likely to be enjoyed by Diamond Aura poses the chief threat to mid-division and held-up types, with Here Comes Louie, Park Lane Penny and Miss Potomac the most likely dangers on recent efforts and trip suitability.
KTB Selection Ice Show
This is the narrative read of the 2:37 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to get an uncontested lead?
Diamond Aura is the only front-runner and should get an uncontested lead given the pace shape of a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the runners have previous course form at Redcar?
Here Comes Louie, Itszaboy, Park Lane Penny, Dalamara and Diamond Aura have previous course form at Redcar.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Ice Show and Diamond Aura are both wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest jockey course record at Redcar among the principals?
Mark Winn has a 20% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.74 from 64 rides when riding Ice Show.
Which horse has won on good to firm ground previously?
Park Lane Penny has one win from three runs on good to firm.
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