3:12 Redcar
This Class 4 handicap over the straight mile at Redcar on good to firm ground features a field of 14 with the KTB numbers pointing to a competitive but somewhat open-looking event. Capital Guarantee tops the Fit ratings on 66 while Welbury, Mr Mistoffelees, Gorgeous Mr George and Sea The Power complete the principals, each carrying respectable Fit Scores between 56 and 63. Several runners step up or drop in class and a number introduce first-time headgear, adding layers of uncertainty to a straight-mile qualifier in the Marske Fabrications & Engineering Series.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting Sea The Power can secure an uncontested lead from his favourable low draw. With the vast majority of the field, including all five principals bar Sea The Power, being held-up types who produce their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a test of whether anything can close effectively enough to reel in the clear front-runner. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove too much for the closers on this straight track, particularly with the good to firm ground expected to favour those who can quicken late but must bridge a gap.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Capital Guarantee KTB Selection66/100Fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 16 attempts and handles good to firm ground well with four wins from 14 starts.
- 2Welbury63/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and three seconds from his last four starts, including a success at this trip.
- 3Mr Mistoffelees59/100Mr Mistoffelees is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with two seconds from his last three starts.
- 4Gorgeous Mr George56/100Fair performer who has won four times on good to firm ground from eight starts and has also scored three times at today's trip.
- 5Sea The Power56/100Sea The Power is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over today's trip from three attempts.
- 6Amidst The Chaos56/100Fair performer who has been consistent this year and arrives in decent form after a win and two places from his last four starts.
- 7Illy's Roo55/100Illy's Roo is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent win on good to firm ground and a previous success at this trip from just two attempts.
- 8Frankies Dream53/100Frankies Dream is a fair handicapper who has been placed on four of his six starts at this trip.
- 9Nyman53/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing fourth three times at this track including on his last visit.
- 10Paladin51/100Paladin is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after a C&D win and a solid effort last time.
- 11Harry The Rogue48/100Harry The Rogue is a fair performer on his best days with a win at today's trip from 19 attempts.
- 12Barley44/100Barley is a modest performer with very consistent recent form but he has never won at this track from seven runs here and looks vulnerable to anything better.
- 13Vince Le Prince43/100Modest performer with a mixed recent record and a first-time headgear attempt today.
- 14Chesneys Charm38/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark on his last three starts.
The contenders
Capital Guarantee KTB Fit 66/100
Capital Guarantee is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 16 attempts and handles good to firm ground well with four wins from 14 starts. His recent form of 209061 shows a mixed bag but includes a win last time out, and he now steps up in class. The David O'Meara yard has a 15 percent strike rate at Redcar from 759 runs while jockey Mark Winn is operating at 20 percent from 64 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 10, he is expected to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time up front.
Welbury KTB Fit 63/100
Welbury is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and three seconds from his last four starts, including a success at this trip. He now steps up in class and first-time headgear is applied after a solid fourth last time. The Edward Bethell stable has a 24 percent strike rate at Redcar from 96 runs and Oisin Orr rides with a 16 percent record from 105 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 6, trip and going both look suitable on what is known, though he will need to bridge the gap to the uncontested leader.
Mr Mistoffelees KTB Fit 59/100
Mr Mistoffelees is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with two seconds from his last three starts. He has decent course experience here with a second and a fourth from three runs and has also placed twice from three starts on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is an interesting addition for a horse that has won at this trip but often finds a bit more needed at the finish. The Sam England yard has a 15 percent strike rate at Redcar from 26 runs though Jonathan England is yet to score from four rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 11, he will be aiming to come from off the pace.
Gorgeous Mr George KTB Fit 56/100
Gorgeous Mr George is a fair performer who has won four times on good to firm ground from eight starts and has also scored three times at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy with two wins followed by a couple of ordinary efforts and he now steps back up in distance having last run over 7f. The Dylan Cunha yard has a 0 percent strike rate from ten runs at Redcar while this is the first ride at the track for 5lb claimer Taryn Langley. Usually held up and producing his effort late from the inside draw, he has the going in his favour but will need to find more from off the pace.
Sea The Power KTB Fit 56/100
Sea The Power is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over today's trip from three attempts. He showed useful form when landing a handicap here last season before a lesser effort on reappearance. The Seb Spencer yard has a 12 percent strike rate at Redcar from 43 runs and Dale Swift rides with a 9 percent record from 182 rides here. The only front-runner in the field, he tends to make the running or race on the pace and could secure an uncontested lead according to the race's pace shape. The small going sample on good to firm leaves that side untested.
The rest of the field
Amidst The ChaosKTB Fit 56/100
Amidst The Chaos is a fair performer who has been consistent this year and arrives in decent form after a win and two places from his last four starts. He has already won over today's trip, acts on good to firm ground and the first-time headgear is another plus, though stall 13 will make things tougher from his usual held-up position.
Illy's RooKTB Fit 55/100
Illy's Roo is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent win on good to firm ground and a previous success at this trip from just two attempts. He steps up in distance today having last run over 7f, which asks a fresh question, while his first visit to Redcar is simply unknown territory.
Frankies DreamKTB Fit 53/100
Frankies Dream is a fair handicapper who has been placed on four of his six starts at this trip. He has won once and placed three times from six runs on good to firm ground and the first-time headgear is a plausible positive, though he will come from off the pace.
NymanKTB Fit 53/100
Nyman is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing fourth three times at this track including on his last visit. The trainer has a solid record here and the jockey is even better, though the horse has shown little on good to firm ground in three attempts.
PaladinKTB Fit 51/100
Paladin is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after a C&D win and a solid effort last time. He has won twice on good to firm and four times at this trip from 13 starts, while his record here reads one win from two runs.
Harry The RogueKTB Fit 48/100
Harry The Rogue is a fair performer on his best days with a win at today's trip from 19 attempts. He has been out of sorts in recent runs though and now tries headgear for the first time, remaining unproven on good to firm ground.
BarleyKTB Fit 44/100
Barley is a modest performer with very consistent recent form but he has never won at this track from seven runs here and looks vulnerable to anything better. He has won three times at today's trip and handles good to firm ground, though the first-time headgear is an unknown.
Vince Le PrinceKTB Fit 43/100
Vince Le Prince is a modest performer with a mixed recent record and a first-time headgear attempt today. He has won once from two runs at this track and holds a fair record on good to firm, but the step up to a mile is a fresh question after seven unsuccessful runs at the distance.
Chesneys CharmKTB Fit 38/100
Chesneys Charm is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark on his last three starts. He has run just once at Redcar, finishing fifth, is 0-4 on good to firm ground, and remains winless at today's trip despite one placing.
KTB verdict
Capital Guarantee is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with three wins at this trip and a good record on good to firm ground, he arrives on the back of a recent success and is ridden by a jockey in strong form at the track. His usual held-up run-style should see him delivered late in a race where the uncontested lead may set things up for a closer. Welbury and Mr Mistoffelees head the dangers, both in consistent form and with first-time headgear to boost them, while the prospect of an easy lead for Sea The Power cannot be ignored.
KTB Selection Capital Guarantee
This is the narrative read of the 3:12 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Sea The Power, as the only front-runner in the field and with the pace shape indicating a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals are held up, with only Sea The Power tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has course form including a second-place finish at Redcar?
Mr Mistoffelees, who has recorded a second and a fourth from three runs here.
Which runner is stepping back up in distance after its most recent start over 7f?
Gorgeous Mr George, who is returning to a mile having last run over 7f.
How many runners in the full field are wearing first-time headgear?
Six runners are wearing first-time headgear: Welbury, Mr Mistoffelees, Amidst The Chaos, Frankies Dream, Barley and Vince Le Prince.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies