2:40 Nottingham
This Class 4 maiden fillies' event over 1m0f75y at Nottingham on good to firm ground features a field of six three-year-olds with limited experience between them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Quisana on 58, with Aura Champagne, Moonlit Surf and Moontune completing the principals. Overall the numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical race in which consistency and the ability to produce a late effort under the prevailing pace shape are likely to be decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With four of the six runners usually held up and producing their effort late, the race is unlikely to be strongly contested up front. The key question is whether any horse can quicken decisively off a modest gallop or whether the race will fall to the one best placed to pick up the pieces in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Quisana KTB Selection58/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form in four starts this year, finishing no worse than second on her last two outings.
- 2Aura Champagne55/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and both have produced solid placed efforts.
- 3Moonlit Surf52/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing second in two of his last three starts including over this trip.
- 4Moontune48/100Moontune is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so far.
- 5My Prerogative47/100Lightly raced 3-year-old with just one run to go on after finishing eighth on debut over 6f.
- 6Yimmna45/100Yimmna showed clear promise when second on debut then ran creditably when seventh in a stronger race last time.
The contenders
Quisana KTB Fit 58/100
Quisana arrives in solid nick having shown consistent form across four starts this year, finishing no worse than second on her last two outings. She has been tried over today's trip twice without success yet remains competitive on good to firm ground where she has placed once from two starts. First-time headgear is now fitted as she bids to break her maiden. Eve Johnson Houghton holds a 13% strike rate at Nottingham from 133 runs with an A/E of 1.05 while Charles Bishop has a 13% strike rate at the track from 118 rides with an A/E of 0.93. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be well suited if the race develops tactically as the numbers suggest.
Aura Champagne KTB Fit 55/100
Aura Champagne is lightly raced with just two runs this year and both have produced solid placed efforts. Dropping back from 1m2f to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while her sole start on good to firm yielded neither a win nor a place. The yard has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham from 349 runs with an A/E of 0.91 and Sean Levey boasts a 17% strike rate at the track from 162 rides with an A/E of 1.24. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to show that the shorter trip suits if she is to capitalise on her class drop.
Moonlit Surf KTB Fit 52/100
Moonlit Surf is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing second in two of his last three starts including over this trip. He ran well to be placed on his only visit to Nottingham and the yard has a 27% strike rate at the track from 52 runs with an A/E of 1.22. First-time headgear is now fitted while the going remains an unknown on just five career runs, though he has placed once from one start on good to firm. Callum Rodriguez has a 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 70 rides with an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up, he will be looking to pounce late if the pace shape allows.
Moontune KTB Fit 48/100
Moontune is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so far and therefore carries low data confidence. Pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here. Stuart Williams has a modest 7% strike rate at Nottingham from 244 runs with an A/E of 0.62 while Marco Ghiani is unproven at the track. By Space Blues, a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 484 runners, she represents a yard that can ready one but will need to be sharp on debut in a race that looks tactical.
The rest of the field
My PrerogativeKTB Fit 47/100
My Prerogative is a lightly raced three-year-old with just one run to go on after finishing eighth on debut over 6f. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has no recorded runners at Nottingham while data confidence remains low given the small sample and the horse remains unproven on good to firm.
YimmnaKTB Fit 45/100
Yimmna showed clear promise when second on debut then ran creditably when seventh in a stronger race last time. The Haggas yard has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 294 runs with an A/E of 0.86 and Tom Marquand has an 11% strike rate at the track from 214 rides with an A/E of 0.78. The trip looks fine but the good-to-firm ground remains an unknown with only two runs on the board.
KTB verdict
Quisana is the KTB Selection. She has shown consistent form this year, finishing no worse than second on her last two outings, and first-time headgear may help her find the necessary edge at a trip she has already tackled twice. The Nottingham figures for both trainer and jockey are respectable and her held-up style fits the expected steadily-run shape. Main dangers are Aura Champagne, who brings solid placed form and drops in class, and Moonlit Surf, who has course placings and recent consistency to his name. Moontune remains an unknown quantity on debut.
KTB Selection Quisana
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its racecourse debut?
Moontune is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so far.
Who is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Quisana is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 58/100.
How many of the runners are usually held up?
Four of the six runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Quisana and Moonlit Surf are both fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the pace shape for this race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence — likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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