5:20 Naas
This 1m fillies maiden at Naas on good ground features an 18-runner field where experience is mixed with plenty of lightly raced and debutante types. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Venosa heading the list on 56 despite recent modest efforts, while Mardi Gras Queen, Nautic Star, Zesty Belle and Never The Same sit close behind on 51-49. A lone-leader pace shape with high confidence suggests an uncontested front-runner could prove hard to reel in, adding emphasis to how the race will unfold tactically.
How the race shapes up
With a lone-leader pace shape carrying high confidence, the race is expected to see one horse establish an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to bridge late on. Most of the principals, including Venosa, Mardi Gras Queen, Nautic Star and Never The Same, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace, while Dark Willow is the one noted as a front-runner who may take up that role. Zesty Belle tends to settle in mid-division. The key question is whether any of the patient runners can close the gap effectively on a track where an easy lead often pays dividends.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Venosa KTB Selection56/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning.
- 2Mardi Gras Queen51/100Mardi Gras Queen showed fair pace before fading into sixth on her 7f debut and now steps up to an untested 1m.
- 3Nautic Star50/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year, finishing no worse than third in three runs since returning from a break.
- 4Zesty Belle50/100Lightly raced mare who showed only modest form when finishing fourth of six on debut at this trip last year before running no sort of race on her return.
- 5Never The Same49/100Never The Same showed some promise when fourth on his second start after a modest debut.
- 6Terra Di Siena48/100Terra Di Siena has only one career run behind him so the form picture remains thin.
- 7Orellana47/100Orellana is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 8Zarenakarena47/100Zarenakarena makes her debut for the Eddie and Patrick Harty yard which has a modest 9% strike rate from 69 runs at Naas.
- 9Xirivella47/100Xirivella showed only modest form when sixth on debut here over this trip.
- 10Whatsin The Stars46/100Lightly raced and with only one run to go on, Whatsin The Stars has to be judged with real caution.
- 11Acula45/100Acula is a newcomer from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard which has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from a big sample.
- 12My Girl Jersie45/100My Girl Jersie has shown little in three starts to date, finishing ninth on each occasion.
- 13Emiza44/100Emiza is a newcomer from a powerful yard that has a solid 12 percent strike rate at Naas from a huge sample of runners.
- 14Sioux The Boss44/100Sioux The Boss has a single run behind him and steps up from 7f to 1m for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him.
- 15Sweetie Too44/100Sweetie Too has only one run on the board and showed little at this trip last time.
- 16Shelton Spring42/100Shelton Spring has only one run in the last year so the form picture is very thin.
- 17Estrallita41/100Estrallita makes her debut for a yard with a modest 3% strike rate at Naas from 94 runs.
- 18Dark Willow31/100Limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 13 starts and arrives here on the back of modest form figures.
The contenders
Venosa KTB Fit 56/100
Venosa is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. Recent efforts have been modest and the wide draw in stall 17 is far from ideal at Naas. The trainer has a solid 22% strike rate here from a huge sample of 1426 runs, with the jockey recording a 10% strike rate at the track from 733 rides. On good ground she is 0-2 with no placed efforts. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, though the evidence is limited and confidence in that run-style is low. The selection comes here with the highest KTB Fit rating of 56.
Mardi Gras Queen KTB Fit 51/100
Mardi Gras Queen showed fair pace before fading into sixth on her 7f debut and now steps up to an untested 1m. The trip is a fresh question for a lightly-raced filly with only one run to go on. The trainer at Naas holds a solid 12% strike rate from 171 runs, while the jockey has an 8% strike rate from 230 rides at the track. She is unproven on good ground. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, though the evidence is limited and confidence in that run-style is low. Her KTB Fit rating is 51.
Nautic Star KTB Fit 50/100
Nautic Star is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year, finishing no worse than third in three runs since returning from a break. She steps up from 7f to a trip she has already placed over without winning, which looks a sensible move on pedigree. The trainer at Naas operates at a 9% strike rate from 1132 runs, with the jockey recording a 10% strike rate from 771 rides at the track. On good ground she is placed once from two starts without winning. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence in that run-style, she carries a KTB Fit rating of 50 but must overcome a wide draw in stall 16 that is far from ideal.
Zesty Belle KTB Fit 50/100
Zesty Belle is a lightly raced mare who showed only modest form when finishing fourth of six on debut at this trip last year before running no sort of race on her return. The small sample makes it impossible to be sure about her trip requirements or how she handles today's good ground. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Naas from four runs. She typically settles in midfield with medium confidence in that run-style. Her KTB Fit rating stands at 50.
Never The Same KTB Fit 49/100
Never The Same showed some promise when fourth on his second start after a modest debut. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. First-time headgear is also applied. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Naas from 637 runs, while the jockey posts a 14% strike rate from 223 rides at the track. He is unproven on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that run-style, he is rated 49 on the KTB Fit scale.
The rest of the field
Terra Di SienaKTB Fit 48/100
Terra Di Siena has only one career run behind him so the form picture remains thin. He drops back from 1m1½f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard holds a solid 14% strike rate at Naas from 470 runs. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, though the evidence is limited and confidence is low. He is unproven on good ground and carries a KTB Fit rating of 48.
OrellanaKTB Fit 47/100
Orellana is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues, while connections are operating at a modest 6% strike rate at Naas from 318 runs. This makes any firm assessment impossible at this stage. Her KTB Fit rating is 47.
ZarenakarenaKTB Fit 47/100
Zarenakarena makes her debut for the Eddie and Patrick Harty yard which has a modest 9% strike rate from 69 runs at Naas. The pedigree and sales background provide the only real pointers here with low data confidence overall. Connections will be hoping she shows enough on this first run to build on. Her KTB Fit rating is 47.
XirivellaKTB Fit 47/100
Xirivella showed only modest form when sixth on debut here over this trip. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Naas from 1181 runs while Colin Keane posts a 17% record at the track. First-time headgear is now applied but with just one run on the board overall any firm conclusions remain premature. She is usually held up with low confidence in that run-style and has a KTB Fit rating of 47.
Whatsin The StarsKTB Fit 46/100
Lightly raced and with only one run to go on, Whatsin The Stars has to be judged with real caution. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Naas from 126 runs offers little encouragement. First-time headgear is now fitted after a trip run that brought no success. She has a KTB Fit rating of 46.
AculaKTB Fit 45/100
Acula is a newcomer from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard which has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from 637 runs. The horse brings a breeze-up background and pedigree links to useful middle-distance winners, though with no racecourse form the level of ability remains entirely unknown. J M Sheridan takes the ride on a day when the stable's overall record at the track is slightly below par. Her KTB Fit rating is 45.
My Girl JersieKTB Fit 45/100
My Girl Jersie has shown little in three starts to date, finishing ninth on each occasion. The drop back to a mile is unlikely to unlock significant improvement on what she has shown so far. Trainer Paul Flynn has a modest 5% strike rate at Naas from 126 runs while Robert Whearty has limited experience here. She is usually prominent with low confidence in that run-style and carries a KTB Fit rating of 45.
EmizaKTB Fit 44/100
Emiza is a newcomer from a powerful yard that has a solid 12 percent strike rate at Naas from a huge sample of runners. The data confidence is low because she has no racecourse form, so the assessment rests entirely on her sales and pedigree background. Connections will have a clear idea of her ability at home but punters are largely in the dark until she shows her hand. Her KTB Fit rating is 44.
Sioux The BossKTB Fit 44/100
Sioux The Boss has a single run behind him and steps up from 7f to 1m for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him. The first-time headgear is another unknown on a horse whose overall ability remains hard to gauge from such limited evidence. Trainer at Naas has a 9% strike rate from 1132 runs while jockey Nathan Crosse also operates at a modest level here. She is usually held up with low confidence in that run-style and has a KTB Fit rating of 44.
Sweetie TooKTB Fit 44/100
Sweetie Too has only one run on the board and showed little at this trip last time. The Brendan W Duke yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 77 runs at Naas while Rory Cleary has limited experience here. With such a small sample everything remains guesswork. She is usually held up with low confidence in that run-style and carries a KTB Fit rating of 44.
Shelton SpringKTB Fit 42/100
Shelton Spring has only one run in the last year so the form picture is very thin. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 46 rides at Naas which adds further caution. Stepping up from 7f to 1m today asks a fresh question of a horse whose going preference is still unknown. She is usually held up with low confidence in that run-style and has a KTB Fit rating of 42.
EstrallitaKTB Fit 41/100
Estrallita makes her debut for a yard with a modest 3% strike rate at Naas from 94 runs. Pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but with data confidence low there is little else to go on. The wide draw in stall 18 adds another unknown for this newcomer. Her KTB Fit rating is 41.
Dark WillowKTB Fit 31/100
Dark Willow is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 13 starts and arrives here on the back of modest form figures. Steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge at that trip previously, while she is also 0-7 on good ground. Trainer has only had four runners at Naas so the jury remains out on that front. She tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that run-style and has the lowest KTB Fit rating of 31.
KTB verdict
Venosa is the KTB Selection. She is a fair performer with consistent placed form at this trip, and the trainer's strong 22% strike rate at Naas from a very large sample gives her a solid foundation. The wide draw is a clear negative and recent form has been modest, yet she tops the KTB Fit ratings. Nautic Star looks the most obvious danger having shown consistent placed form this year and stepping up to a suitable trip, though her own wide draw is far from ideal. Never The Same, Mardi Gras Queen and the remainder of the field add depth but look held on the balance of the supplied KTB material.
KTB Selection Venosa
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the lone-leader pace shape affect the race?
One clear front-runner with little to pressure it is likely to have an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which horses are held up in running?
Venosa, Mardi Gras Queen, Nautic Star, Never The Same, Terra Di Siena, Xirivella, Sioux The Boss, Sweetie Too and Shelton Spring are all described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Naas for the yard of the selection?
A P O'Brien has a 22% strike rate at Naas from 1426 runs with an A/E of 0.96.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Never The Same, Xirivella, Whatsin The Stars and Sioux The Boss are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse is noted as a front-runner?
Dark Willow tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that run-style.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies