2:43 Thirsk
This Class 4 EBF novice over 7f 218y at Thirsk on good ground brings together a small but interesting field of lightly raced three-year-olds alongside one older horse. KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 43, reflecting a race where recent form is modest and several runners have questions to answer about trip, ground and overall ability. The top four in the KTB ranking are separated by just five points, underlining how open the contest looks on paper.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runners in the field the early pace is set to be modest, which should suit those who can settle in mid-division and produce a turn of foot. Le Samourai and Regal Desire are likely to be held up off the pace while Brighton Beach may track the leaders from draw six. The key question is whether the race develops enough pace for the closers to be effective or whether it becomes a test of cruising speed in a steadily run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Le Samourai KTB Selection53/100Le Samourai showed fair form when winning on debut and then ran no sort of race when favourite next time.
- 2Brighton Beach51/100Brighton Beach showed fair form when third on debut over 1m2f and was not disgraced when fifth next time.
- 3Morty Robinson49/100Morty Robinson has had just one run in the last year so the form picture is thin.
- 4Regal Desire48/100Regal Desire has shown steady promise with two placed efforts from as many starts but remains very lightly raced.
- 5Test Run47/100Test Run has shown ordinary form in two starts so far, finishing fourth and fifth without suggesting he is well above average.
- 6Ben Travato47/100Ben Travato has only one run behind him and that was a modest sixth on debut.
- 7West Sleekburn Lad43/100West Sleekburn Lad has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten both times.
The contenders
Le Samourai KTB Fit 53/100
Le Samourai showed fair form when winning on debut and then ran no sort of race when favourite next time. He steps up in trip today to a distance that remains untested, while first-time headgear is now applied after that poor effort. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Thirsk and the jockey is operating at 27% here. Connections will be hoping the headgear can spark a return to the debut promise. His overall profile still carries plenty of potential despite the latest disappointment.
Brighton Beach KTB Fit 51/100
Brighton Beach showed fair form when third on debut over 1m2f and was not disgraced when fifth next time. He now drops back sharply in trip to 7f having already tried the distance once without success. The Haggas yard has a solid 26% strike rate at Thirsk while Tudhope posts an 18% record here. Dropping in class should help his cause. With Daniel Tudhope in the saddle he is sure to be well supported but the trip reduction remains the big unknown.
Morty Robinson KTB Fit 49/100
Morty Robinson has had just one run in the last year so the form picture is thin. The Brian Ellison yard posts a solid 10% strike rate at Thirsk from a big sample while Jack Garritty is operating at 8% here. Stepping up in trip looks a fresh question for a horse whose overall profile remains modest given the lack of recent racing. At six he is the only older runner in the field. His lack of match practice makes him hard to fancy on this return.
Regal Desire KTB Fit 48/100
Regal Desire has shown steady promise with two placed efforts from as many starts but remains very lightly raced. Dropping back from 1m to 7f poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it impossible to gauge whether the good ground will suit. Trainer Brian Ellison has a solid 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 328 runs yet jockey Ben Robinson sits on a modest 5% from 174 rides here. He steps up in class having looked competitive on good ground last time. His placed form gives him a solid base but the trip and class rise add uncertainty.
The rest of the field
Test RunKTB Fit 47/100
Test Run has shown ordinary form in two starts so far, finishing fourth and fifth without suggesting he is well above average. He drops back from 1m to 7f, a distance he has already tried once without success, while the small sample means both his ability and going preferences remain unclear. The Easterby yard records an 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 118 runs and Billy Garritty sits on an 11% strike rate from 89 rides here.
Ben TravatoKTB Fit 47/100
Ben Travato has only one run behind him and that was a modest sixth on debut. The yard has a solid 10% strike-rate at Thirsk from a large sample while Faye McManoman is operating at a 5% strike-rate here from 104 rides. With so little evidence to go on this lightly-raced colt is best treated with caution as he steps up in trip.
West Sleekburn LadKTB Fit 43/100
West Sleekburn Lad has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten both times. The drop back from 1m2f to an untried 7f is a fresh question while the yard and rider both have modest strike rates at Thirsk. With only two runs on the board this is very much a watching brief.
KTB verdict
Le Samourai is the KTB Selection. He showed fair form when winning his debut and, despite a subsequent poor run, the application of first-time headgear along with the yard’s 20% strike rate at Thirsk gives him the strongest profile in the race. The step up in trip is an unknown but his debut success suggests he has the scope to handle it. His main dangers are Brighton Beach, who brings solid placed form and the powerful Haggas-Tudhope combination, and Regal Desire, whose two placed efforts mark him out as the most consistent of the principals. Morty Robinson’s lengthy absence makes him harder to assess positively.
KTB Selection Le Samourai
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 1 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Le Samourai | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Brighton Beach | 6/4 | Bet365 |
| Morty Robinson | 150/1 | 7Bet |
| Regal Desire | 2/1 | 7Bet |
| Test Run | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Ben Travato | 200/1 | Bet Victor |
| West Sleekburn Lad | 200/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 2:43 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is having its first run in headgear?
Le Samourai is wearing first-time headgear.
How many horses are dropping back in trip?
Brighton Beach, Regal Desire and Test Run are all dropping back in trip.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Thirsk among those represented?
William Haggas has a 26% strike rate at Thirsk.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track?
Edward Greatrex has a 27% strike rate at Thirsk.
Which horse is the only one with previous experience on good ground?
Regal Desire has placed once from one run on good ground.
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