3:17 Thirsk
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Thirsk features a field of 12 with a strong pace shape that could set things up for hold-up performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Tiva narrowly heading the numbers at 59, followed closely by Moulin Booj and American Bay on 57, while Rock Of England and Accrual sit on 54. Overall the race looks competitive between several fair performers who know their way around this trip and track, though the application of first-time headgear to a few runners adds an element of the unknown.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is likely to be strong and could collapse in the later stages, favouring those who come from off the pace. Rock Of England and Canaria Queen are the types to make or contest the running from the outset, while several others including Moulin Booj, Muker, True Promise, Castan and Mondammej tend to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the early speed burns itself out sufficiently to allow the closers to pick up the pieces in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tiva KTB Selection59/100Fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and arrives off the back of a solid sixth last time.
- 2Moulin Booj57/100Moulin Booj is a fair performer who has won at this trip and at this track from just three runs.
- 3American Bay57/100American Bay is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track, winning once from four starts.
- 4Rock Of England54/100Rock Of England is a fair handicapper with a solid record at this trip and on good ground.
- 5Accrual54/100Fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 16 attempts and handles good ground well with a win and two places from three starts.
- 6Rotokura Belle52/100Rotokura Belle is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes three wins in the last six months.
- 7Comic Strip52/100Comic Strip is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from six attempts and showed useful early speed when runner-up on debut.
- 8Muker47/100Muker is a modest performer who has won twice from eight runs at Thirsk and also has a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 49 starts.
- 9True Promise47/100True Promise is a fair performer who has been in and out this year with two wins from his last six runs.
- 10Castan46/100Castan is a fair performer who has won at this trip eight times from 49 starts and landed this track once from three visits.
- 11Mondammej42/100Mondammej is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency but little to show for it on this track.
- 12Canaria Queen39/100Modest performer who has been placed on her last two starts over 6f.
The contenders
Tiva KTB Fit 59/100
Tiva is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late and arrives here off the back of a solid sixth last time. She has placed on her only visit to Thirsk and acts on good ground, with three wins at this trip from 17 attempts. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard and jockey both have strong records at the track. David O'Meara operates at a 14% strike rate at Thirsk from 703 runs while Daniel Tudhope posts an 18% strike rate from 616 rides here. The selection has the right profile to capitalise if the strong pace takes its toll.
Moulin Booj KTB Fit 57/100
Moulin Booj is a fair performer who has won at this trip and at this track from just three runs. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and his recent form includes a solid third at this level. Trainer and jockey both have respectable records here though neither is above average. George Scott posts a 17% strike rate at Thirsk from 35 runs while Kevin Stott is on 14% from 242 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well placed to benefit if the front-runners go too hard in what looks a strongly-run race.
American Bay KTB Fit 57/100
American Bay is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track, winning once from four starts. He has been placed twice from ten runs on good ground and drops back to 5f today, a trip at which he has already won once from nine attempts. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate here from a big sample is offset by the jockey's strong 25% record from his small number of rides at Thirsk. Recent form of 325720 shows flashes of ability and a return to the minimum trip could spark a revival.
Rock Of England KTB Fit 54/100
Rock Of England is a fair handicapper with a solid record at this trip and on good ground. He has won once from six starts at Thirsk and his recent form of 913121 shows consistent competitiveness in similar company. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's 11% record at the track. Tending to make the running or race prominently, he is sure to be to the fore in what is predicted to be a strong pace and his course record gives him solid claims if he can see it out.
Accrual KTB Fit 54/100
Accrual is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 16 attempts and handles good ground well with a win and two places from three starts. Recent form is patchy with a string of mid-division finishes and no strong recent efforts to shout about. Trainer has an 8% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey records 10% from 58 rides. Drawn low and with no course form on record, she will need to improve on her latest efforts to figure prominently.
The rest of the field
Rotokura BelleKTB Fit 52/100
Rotokura Belle is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes three wins in the last six months. She has already won three times at this trip and acts well on good ground with two wins and three places from six runs. The yard has a modest 4% strike-rate at Thirsk while de Sousa is more positive with a 16% record here. Usually held up, she could be suited by the predicted strong pace.
Comic StripKTB Fit 52/100
Comic Strip is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from six attempts and showed useful early speed when runner-up on debut. He has been below that level on his last four starts though and his only run on good ground brought no joy. First-time headgear is now tried while the Crisfords have a solid 18% strike-rate at Thirsk.
MukerKTB Fit 47/100
Muker is a modest performer who has won twice from eight runs at Thirsk and also has a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 49 starts. He has four wins from 17 runs on good ground and the recent form figures of 800640 show he is competitive at this level on his day. The trainer and jockey both hold a 5% strike rate at the track from large samples. Usually held up, he is another who could be favoured by a strong pace.
True PromiseKTB Fit 47/100
True Promise is a fair performer who has been in and out this year with two wins from his last six runs. He drops back to 5f having won twice at the trip from 14 attempts yet showed little when ninth on his only previous visit to Thirsk. The trainer has failed to strike from five runs at the track while the jockey has a modest 9% strike rate from 56 rides here. Usually held up, the strong pace could suit.
CastanKTB Fit 46/100
Castan is a fair performer who has won at this trip eight times from 49 starts and landed this track once from three visits. He has been placed four times from 11 runs on good ground but remains winless on it, while the first-time headgear is now tried after a mixed recent record of 281409. The yard holds an 8% strike rate here from 420 runs and the jockey is operating at 5% from 174 rides. Usually held up, he could be suited by the race shape.
MondammejKTB Fit 42/100
Mondammej is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency but little to show for it on this track. He has won at today's trip in the past yet has failed to place in ten runs on good ground and has been well beaten both starts here. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate and the jockey's 3% at Thirsk add to the negatives. Stepping up in class today.
Canaria QueenKTB Fit 39/100
Canaria Queen is a modest performer who has been placed on her last two starts over 6f. Drops back to 5f where she has won eight times from 29 runs, though her record at Thirsk reads placed once from four starts. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track. Tending to make the running or race prominently, she is likely to be involved early in what should be a strongly-run affair.
KTB verdict
Tiva looks the pick on KTB numbers and has the right blend of consistency, course form and yard/jockey strength at Thirsk. First-time headgear could sharpen her up at just the right time in a race where the strong pace is expected to test the leaders. Moulin Booj, American Bay and Rock Of England all have solid claims on their track records and recent competitiveness, while the likes of Rotokura Belle and Muker could be suited by the shape if they are given a patient ride from off the pace.
KTB Selection Tiva
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 1 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tiva | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Moulin Booj | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| American Bay | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Rock Of England | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Accrual | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Rotokura Belle | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Comic Strip | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Muker | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| True Promise | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Castan | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Mondammej | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Canaria Queen | 9/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 3:17 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to benefit from the predicted strong pace?
Hold-up horses such as Moulin Booj, Muker, True Promise and Castan are well placed if the front-runners go too hard and the pace collapses late.
How has Tiva performed at Thirsk previously?
She has placed on her only visit to Thirsk.
What is Rock Of England's run-style and how does it fit the race?
He tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could leave him vulnerable in a race with a strong pace likely.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Thirsk in this field?
The Crisfords have an 18% strike rate at Thirsk, while David O'Meara is on 14% and George Scott 17%.
Has American Bay won over today's trip?
Yes, he has won once at 5f from nine attempts.
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