2:45 Carlisle
This Class 2 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes over 5f182y at Carlisle on soft ground features a small but interesting field of four two-year-olds. With limited racecourse evidence overall, the KTB numbers point to Deputy Vice setting the standard on his RPR of 90 and Topspeed of 86 from a single run, while the two other principals bring strong pedigree and trainer form respectively. Data confidence is low given the small samples and lack of previous soft-ground experience for most runners.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay. Capilano is the one who usually races prominently and could end up dictating or sitting close to the pace, while Deputy Vice and Caeruleus are both held-up types who produce their efforts late. Light Of Dawn's run-style is as yet unknown but the key question is whether the newcomer can overcome the lack of a pace-setter and deliver a performance that matches her pedigree in what could turn into a sprint finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Deputy Vice KTB Selection60/100RPR 90 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Light Of Dawn52/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
- 3Capilano44/100RPR 82 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Caeruleus39/100RPR 76 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Deputy Vice KTB Fit 60/100
Deputy Vice sets the standard in this race on his RPR of 90 and Topspeed of 86 after showing useful form when third on debut at Chester in a competitive novice over 6f. The 145000 breeze-up purchase is lightly raced with only the one run behind him and the trip looks suitable. Rebecca Menzies holds a 12% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.12 from 254 runs, while P J McDonald is 13% at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 367 rides. The colt is usually held up and produces his effort late, though that assessment comes from limited evidence with low confidence. He has no experience of soft ground and no previous course form.
Light Of Dawn KTB Fit 52/100
Light Of Dawn is a well-bred newcomer who cost 140,000gns as a yearling before making 625,000 euros at the breeze-up sales. She is a half-sister to ten winners including smart sprinters and out of a 5f two-year-old Listed winner, so she holds major appeal on pedigree alone. Karl Burke brings a 19% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.11 from 373 runs, while James Doyle is 24% at the track with an A/E of 1.04 from 21 rides. The trainer and jockey combination has produced a 25% strike rate together from 56 runners with an A/E of 1.18. She has no RPR or Topspeed figures available as yet and no course win on record.
Capilano KTB Fit 44/100
Capilano showed some promise when rallying to finish third on debut at Newcastle, beating Caeruleus in the process. The 72,000gns yearling is lightly raced with only one run and is stepping up in class today. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead, though that read comes from limited evidence with low confidence. Michael Dods has a 9% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.71 from a large sample of 651 runs, while Connor Beasley is 8% at the track with an A/E of 0.6 from 265 rides. The pair hold an 11% strike rate together from 2054 runners with an A/E of 0.79. He has no experience of soft ground and no previous course form.
The rest of the field
CaeruleusKTB Fit 39/100
Caeruleus showed some promise when finishing fourth on debut at Newcastle 20 days ago and was starting to get the hang of things in the closing stages. He is a fair standard performer on the figures but has 2 lb to find with one of today's main dangers on that bare form. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Carlisle while the jockey has a solid 20% strike rate from 105 rides here. He is usually held up, steps up in class, and has no experience of soft ground.
KTB verdict
Deputy Vice sets a clear standard on his RPR and Topspeed figures from a promising debut at Chester and he is taken to build on that effort. The selection has solid Carlisle records behind him from both trainer and jockey, and the trip is expected to suit. Light Of Dawn brings major pedigree appeal and strong connections at this track, while Capilano showed promise on debut and could be suited by a prominent position in a race that may not be strongly run. Caeruleus remains a fair standard performer but has a bit to find on the figures.
KTB Selection Deputy Vice
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 09:20 UTC, 8 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Deputy Vice | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Light Of Dawn | 4/7 | 7Bet |
| Capilano | 9/1 | PricedUp Bet |
| Caeruleus | 16/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse sets the standard on official ratings?
Deputy Vice sets the standard on RPR 90 and TS 86 from his debut third at Chester.
How does the pedigree of Light Of Dawn compare to the rest of the field?
Light Of Dawn is a half-sister to ten winners including smart sprinters and out of a 5f two-year-old Listed winner.
Who is likely to race prominently in this steadily-run affair?
Capilano is the one who usually races handily on or close to the lead, while Deputy Vice and Caeruleus are held-up types.
What are the Carlisle records for the trainers of the top three in the KTB Fit ranking?
Rebecca Menzies is 12% at Carlisle with A/E 1.12, Karl Burke is 19% with A/E 1.11, and Michael Dods is 9% with A/E 0.71.
Which runners have no experience of soft ground?
Deputy Vice, Capilano and Caeruleus have no runs on soft ground.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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