2:45 Catterick
This Class 6 nursery handicap at Catterick over 5f 212y on good ground features a field of eight two-year-olds, most of them modest performers still seeking their first win. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Harry's Pop just heading the numbers on 55, followed closely by Aura Of Melania on 54, Eevee Star on 51 and Cheeky Chesca on 48. Dropping in class is a common theme among several runners, yet the lightly-raced profile of many leaves questions about their effectiveness on the prevailing ground.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Invicta Rose is the only front-runner in the field. She is likely to get an uncontested lead and set an even gallop that could prove difficult for the many held-up types to overcome late on. With seven of the eight runners typically held up and producing their effort from off the pace, the key question is whether any closer can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Harry's Pop KTB Selection55/100Harry's Pop is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability in five runs at this trip without managing to win.
- 2Aura Of Melania54/100Aura Of Melania has shown consistent but modest form, finishing no better than fourth in five starts including two runs at this trip.
- 3Eevee Star51/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning.
- 4Cheeky Chesca48/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on the all-weather but has struggled to match that on turf.
- 5Athos47/100Athos has shown only modest form in three runs to date and is officially rated as limited.
- 6Soldier's Echo46/100Soldier's Echo has shown only limited ability in three runs to date and has yet to trouble the judge.
- 7So Tempting39/100Limited sort who has shown little in three starts before a much better second at this trip last time.
- 8Invicta Rose37/100Invicta Rose is a limited filly who has shown ordinary form across five runs, most recently finishing sixth of eight at this track.
The contenders
Harry's Pop KTB Fit 55/100
Harry's Pop is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability across five runs at this trip without managing to win. He drops in class here, which should help, while the yard operates at a 20% strike rate at Catterick from a small but solid sample of ten runs. Sam James takes the ride with a 12% strike rate at the track from 267 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead likely to be enjoyed by the front-runner. The colt remains lightly raced with no runs on good ground, so his effectiveness on the surface is still to be confirmed.
Aura Of Melania KTB Fit 54/100
Aura Of Melania has shown consistent but modest form, finishing no better than fourth across five starts including two runs at this trip. Dropping in class should be in her favour. The yard records a 10% strike rate at Catterick from a decent sample of 178 runners, while Oisin McSweeney brings a strong 21% strike rate at the track from 39 rides. Like most of her rivals she is usually held up and produces her effort late, which may not be ideal against an uncontested leader. With only five runs on the board the going remains an unknown.
Eevee Star KTB Fit 51/100
Eevee Star is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. The trainer posts a solid 21% strike rate at Catterick from 43 runs, giving the yard course connections. Oisin Orr takes the mount with a 17% strike rate at the track from 77 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will face the same challenge as the other closers if the leader is allowed an easy time upfront. Lightly raced with only four outings total, the going remains an unknown despite one placed effort on good ground.
Cheeky Chesca KTB Fit 48/100
Cheeky Chesca is a modest performer who has shown some ability on the all-weather but has struggled to match that on turf. Dropping back to 5f is a positive as she has been placed twice at the trip without winning. First-time headgear is now fitted and represents an unknown. Tim Easterby has a solid 12% strike rate at Catterick from a big sample of 1920 runs, though David Allan is currently 0-11 at the track. Usually held up, she will need to find more on turf from a low draw if she is to trouble the leader.
The rest of the field
AthosKTB Fit 47/100
Athos has shown only modest form in three runs to date and is officially rated as limited. He has twice been tried over today's trip without success and the small sample makes it impossible to be confident about his effectiveness on good ground. The yard has a solid 23% strike rate at Catterick from 13 runs.
Soldier's EchoKTB Fit 46/100
Soldier's Echo has shown only limited ability in three runs to date and has yet to trouble the judge. The step up in trip looks a fresh question rather than a negative given his modest form at the minimum. Hugo Palmer has a solid 19% strike rate here from 32 runs while the small-sample going data leaves his effectiveness on good ground unknown.
So TemptingKTB Fit 39/100
So Tempting is a limited sort who has shown little in three starts before a much better second at this trip last time. First-time headgear is now fitted and could help, though the yard has only one run at Catterick so far which is too small a sample to judge. The trip looks about right but the horse remains basically modest.
Invicta RoseKTB Fit 37/100
Invicta Rose is a limited filly who has shown ordinary form across five runs, most recently finishing sixth of eight at this track. She steps back up to 5f having failed to trouble the judge at the trip on her last three starts. The yard has a 20% strike rate from five runs at Catterick while Billy Garritty is 1-8 here.
KTB verdict
Harry's Pop is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability in five runs at this trip, now drops in class, and represents a yard with a 20% strike rate at Catterick. The lightly-raced profile means his effectiveness on good ground is still to be confirmed, yet he is just preferred on the numbers. Main dangers are Aura Of Melania, who brings consistent modest form and a strong jockey booking, and Eevee Star, who has shown placed form at the trip for a yard in form at the track. Cheeky Chesca cannot be entirely dismissed with the first-time headgear and drop back to 5f.
KTB Selection Harry's Pop
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get the uncontested lead?
Invicta Rose is the only front-runner in the field and therefore likely to get the uncontested lead according to the pace shape.
How many runners are dropping in class?
Harry's Pop, Aura Of Melania, Cheeky Chesca, Athos and Soldier's Echo are all dropping in class.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Catterick in this race?
John Butler has a 23% strike rate at Catterick from 13 runs, the highest in the field.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track?
Oisin McSweeney has a 21% strike rate at Catterick from 39 rides, the highest among the jockeys.
How many runners have no previous course form?
Six runners have no course form on record: Harry's Pop, Aura Of Melania, Eevee Star, Athos, Soldier's Echo and So Tempting.
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