3:15 Catterick
This Class 6 handicap over the sharp 5f 212y at Catterick on good ground brings together a field of nine modest performers, several of whom arrive in reasonable recent form and with the added variable of first-time headgear. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Good Karma heading the numbers on 58, closely followed by Quercus and Miss Rainbow on 55 and Daytona Lady on 54. Several runners have shown an ability to handle the track, and the overall standard suggests a competitive race where course experience, run style and the application of headgear could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as at least two habitual front-runners are present in Quercus and Barmyblade, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. This shape is likely to test those setting the fractions and could lead to a late collapse, favouring horses that are held up and able to produce their effort from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent runners can get away with it on this stiff finish or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient hold-up performer coming from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Good Karma KTB Selection58/100Modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last six starts.
- 2Quercus55/100Modest performer with a solid record here, having won seven times from 27 starts at Catterick.
- 3Miss Rainbow55/100Modest performer with a solid record here, winning two of nine starts at Catterick.
- 4Daytona Lady54/100Modest performer who has been placed a few times this year but has failed to win in 50 runs over the past 12 months.
- 5Jm Jhingree50/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little spark when eighth of 10 at Musselburgh last time.
- 6One Of Our Own45/100Limited horse who has won three times at Catterick from eight runs and also has a solid record at today's trip.
- 7Barmyblade45/100Limited performer who has won twice at Catterick from five runs and also has four wins from 13 starts at this trip.
- 8Edmond Halley42/100Limited horse who has shown little in nine runs and finished no better than fifth on his only visit to Catterick.
- 9Papa Don't Preach33/100Papa Don't Preach is a limited performer who has shown occasional competitiveness on good ground without winning.
The contenders
Good Karma KTB Fit 58/100
Good Karma is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last six starts. He has been placed on both previous visits to Catterick and the yard has a good 15% strike rate here from a decent-sized sample. Dropping back to 5f for the first time in a while, having failed to win at the trip before, adds an element of risk, while first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer and jockey combination has produced a 5/24 record with an A/E of 1.78 and positive LSP of +£17.33. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. With a recent form line of 274123 he enters the race in reasonable order.
Quercus KTB Fit 55/100
Quercus is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won seven times from 27 starts at Catterick. He has won on good ground and at this trip, though his recent form of 10-565 suggests he is not at his peak. First-time headgear is now tried and the yard's 10% strike-rate at the track from a large sample offers no particular edge. The trainer and jockey have an 8% strike rate together with an A/E of 1.03. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong pace. Dropping in class should help his cause.
Miss Rainbow KTB Fit 55/100
Miss Rainbow is a modest performer with a solid record here, winning two of nine starts at Catterick. She has won three times at today's trip and handles good ground well with four wins from eleven runs. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse that has been in and out of form lately. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 1.05. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be well placed if the pace collapses as the shape suggests. Her recent form reads 103341 and she has the benefit of a wide draw in nine.
Daytona Lady KTB Fit 54/100
Daytona Lady is a modest performer who has been placed a few times this year but has failed to win in 50 runs over the past 12 months. Catterick form reads 6th and 7th with no placed efforts, though the trainer’s 12% strike rate from 483 runs here offers some encouragement. First-time headgear is now tried on ground she has handled before, with a win and two places from five runs on good. The trainer and jockey have a 9% strike rate together. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will hope the strong pace takes its toll on those up front. Dropping in class is another positive.
The rest of the field
Jm JhingreeKTB Fit 50/100
Jm Jhingree is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little spark when eighth of 10 at Musselburgh last time. He has run three times at Catterick without placing and the trainer's modest 8% strike-rate here adds little encouragement. First-time headgear is tried as he steps up in trip today.
One Of Our OwnKTB Fit 45/100
One Of Our Own is a limited horse who has won three times at Catterick from eight runs and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form is mixed but he has been competitive at this level and the first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer holds a respectable 15% strike rate at the track from a large sample.
BarmybladeKTB Fit 45/100
Barmyblade is a limited performer who has won twice at Catterick from five runs and also has four wins from 13 starts at this trip. Three of those wins have come on good ground and he showed his best recent form when winning here in August. First-time headgear is now added.
Edmond HalleyKTB Fit 42/100
Edmond Halley is a limited horse who has shown little in nine runs and finished no better than fifth on his only visit to Catterick. The yard has a solid 21% strike rate here from 43 runs but this one arrives in modest form and is unproven on good ground. Trip looks about right having been placed at the distance once.
Papa Don't PreachKTB Fit 33/100
Papa Don't Preach is a limited performer who has shown occasional competitiveness on good ground without winning. He steps up in trip today having been placed without success at this distance in the past, while his two runs at Catterick have produced no better than sixth. First-time headgear is now applied to a horse whose recent form has been patchy at best.
KTB verdict
Good Karma is the KTB Selection. He has a solid recent record featuring two wins from his last six starts, has been placed on both previous runs at Catterick where the yard performs well, and his hold-up style looks ideal given the strong pace expected. The first-time headgear adds an unknown but the overall profile fits the shape of the race. Main dangers include Quercus with his strong course record and front-running tendencies, Miss Rainbow who has won twice here and handles the trip and ground, and Daytona Lady who is dropping in class and also benefits from a patient ride.
KTB Selection Good Karma
This is the narrative read of the 3:15 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Quercus and Barmyblade are the two habitual front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Eight of the nine runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Good Karma, Quercus, Miss Rainbow, Daytona Lady, Jm Jhingree, One Of Our Own, Barmyblade and Papa Don't Preach.
Which runner has the best strike rate at Catterick according to the trainer read?
Edmond Halley’s trainer has a 21% strike rate at Catterick from 43 runs.
Who has won the most races at Catterick in the field?
Quercus has won seven times from 27 starts at Catterick.
Which horses are expected to be suited by a strong pace that could collapse late?
The hold-up horses Good Karma, Miss Rainbow, Daytona Lady, Jm Jhingree, Edmond Halley and Papa Don't Preach are favoured by the strong pace shape.
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