2:45 Doncaster
The Betfred St Leger Trial Novice Stakes is a Class 2 contest over 1m3f197y at Doncaster on good to firm ground. An field of eight three-year-olds assembles for this valuable GBB/GBBPlus event, with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 57 and 43. Count Bezukhov heads the KTB rankings on the back of progressive form while several others step up markedly in class or make their debut.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run race with several forward-goers likely to contest the lead early. Count Bezukhov and According To Mark are expected to track the pace from their low draws while Hatteen and Shoof Baeed should come from mid-division. The key question is whether the trip will expose limitations in those who have shown their best over shorter or are making their first attempt at the distance.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Count Bezukhov KTB Selection57/100Count Bezukhov has shown promise in two starts, finishing third then winning last time out.
- 2According To Mark56/100According To Mark has shown fair form in three runs this year with two placed efforts after a debut fourth.
- 3Saifo54/100Saifo is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 17% strike rate at Doncaster.
- 4Hatteen52/100Hatteen has shown consistent placed form in three starts this year and looks fairly treated on his official rating.
- 5Sea And Sun49/100Lightly raced colt with just two runs this year and both have resulted in placed efforts.
- 6Shoof Baeed48/100Shoof Baeed won his only start over 1m2f and now steps up in trip for a Class 2 race.
- 7Brave Hunter47/100Fair performer who has shown some consistency lately with a second at this trip last time out.
- 8Poker43/100Fair performer who has twice been placed at this trip without winning.
The contenders
Count Bezukhov KTB Fit 57/100
Count Bezukhov has shown promise in two starts, finishing third then winning last time out. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning over this distance on his sole attempt. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 23 runs while the jockey is operating at 12% from 97 rides here. Billy Loughnane takes the ride for Joseph Patrick O'Brien whose combination has struck at a 40% rate. Drawn in three, he is expected to race prominently. He remains unproven on good to firm ground but his recent form suggests he can handle the surface.
According To Mark KTB Fit 56/100
According To Mark has shown fair form in three runs this year with two placed efforts after a debut fourth. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m2f and that distance increase is an unknown. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 86 runs. Daniel Tudhope teams up with Edward Bethell who have combined at a 19% rate with an A/E of 0.92. From draw two he should be able to track the leaders. He is unproven on good to firm but has been consistent enough to warrant respect stepping up in class.
Saifo KTB Fit 54/100
Saifo is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 17% strike rate at Doncaster. The colt was bought for 40,000 guineas and is by Sea The Stars out of a half-sister to Group 1 winner Crystal Ocean, so the pedigree suggests he should handle this trip. Connections are capable but this remains a leap into a Class 2 on debut with limited hard data to go on. Sean Levey rides for David Simcock whose record here reads 17% with an A/E of 1.2. Drawn widest he may need to come from off the pace. By Wootton Bassett he has a 13% overall win rate behind him in the sire's progeny.
Hatteen KTB Fit 52/100
Hatteen has shown consistent placed form in three starts this year and looks fairly treated on his official rating. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard have a solid 14% strike rate at Doncaster from a big sample while P J McDonald is 10% from 510 rides here. Andrew Balding and P J McDonald have combined at a 20% rate. Drawn in six he should race in mid-division. He is unproven on good to firm ground but his placed efforts suggest he can be competitive stepping up in class.
The rest of the field
Sea And SunKTB Fit 49/100
Sea And Sun is a lightly raced colt with just two runs this year and both have resulted in placed efforts. He has already shown he handles this sort of trip and the yard's modest record at the track is offset by the fact he has only had two starts. Small sample overall means this is one to treat with caution.
Shoof BaeedKTB Fit 48/100
Shoof Baeed won his only start over 1m2f and now steps up in trip for a Class 2 race. The small sample means there is little else to go on and any assessment must be cautious. Trainer Charlie Johnston has a 9% strike rate from 103 runs at Doncaster while jockey Connor Beasley is unproven at the track.
Brave HunterKTB Fit 47/100
Brave Hunter is a fair performer who has shown some consistency lately with a second at this trip last time out. He ran respectably over course and distance on his only visit here though he has yet to win. First-time headgear is now added while the yard has no previous runners at the track.
PokerKTB Fit 43/100
Poker is a fair performer who has twice been placed at this trip without winning. Recent efforts have been ordinary and the yard's modest strike-rate at Doncaster offers little encouragement. Stall one could prove an advantage on good to firm ground but the small sample makes that hard to weigh up.
KTB verdict
Count Bezukhov is the KTB Selection. He brings the best recent form to the table having won last time out and has already shown he can handle this sort of trip. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard's solid record at Doncaster adds further confidence. His main dangers are According To Mark who has been consistent and steps up in trip, and Hatteen who brings placed form and a good trainer-jockey combination. Saifo is an interesting debutant but this looks a stiff first task.
KTB Selection Count Bezukhov
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already been placed over today's trip?
Count Bezukhov has been placed without winning over this distance on his sole attempt.
Who is the only horse in the field to have won a race so far?
Shoof Baeed won his only start over 1m2f.
Which runner is making its racecourse debut?
Saifo is a newcomer.
Which horse is fitted with first-time headgear?
Brave Hunter is now fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Doncaster among the principals?
Both Count Bezukhov's trainer and Saifo's trainer have a 17% strike rate at Doncaster.
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