3:45 Carlisle
This Class 6 handicap at Carlisle over 5f 182y on good ground brings together a field of eleven modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Catalyse just heading the list on 58, followed closely by Great on 56 and a trio on 51. Recent form is largely ordinary across the board, but several hold prior course form or placed efforts at the track, and the trainer records at Carlisle vary markedly from solid to modest.
How the race shapes up
The race is expected to be run at an even pace with a blend of prominent runners and those who race in mid-division. With draws spread across the track and no dominant front-runner in the line-up, the shape looks fair and should allow those with tactical speed to obtain a decent early position. The key question is whether any of the more exposed course performers can find the necessary spark on this good surface, or if one of the class-droppers can capitalise on a potentially softer opportunity.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Catalyse KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 2Great56/100Modest performer who has won once over today's trip from eight attempts.
- 3Bay Breeze51/100Modest performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 4Miss Rainbow51/100Miss Rainbow is a modest performer who has run well at this track in the past with a second and a sixth from two visits.
- 5Mr Cool51/100Mr Cool is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place five times this year without winning.
- 6Kyber Crystal48/100Kyber Crystal is a limited performer who has been out of the winner's circle for some time and has failed to land a blow in five runs this year.
- 7Mount Ruapehu48/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives in modest form.
- 8Instant Bond45/100Modest performer with a recent form line of 133101 that shows he can be competitive at this level when on song.
- 9Henriette Ronner41/100Limited filly who has struggled since winning a 5f maiden early last season and arrives in poor form.
- 10Orbital Chime39/100Limited performer who has been placed on good ground but is winless in 18 starts at this trip and has shown little at Carlisle in two previous runs.
- 11Soda33/100Soda has shown minor promise on a couple of occasions but remains a limited performer on the balance of her four runs to date.
The contenders
Catalyse KTB Fit 58/100
Catalyse is a modest performer who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to a trip he has won at before and acts on good ground but has never been to Carlisle. The yard holds a 10% strike rate at the track from 325 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while the 7lb claimer has an 11% strike rate here from a small sample of 9 rides with an A/E of 0.76. Recent form reads -00076 and he is drawn in stall 5. The KTB Fit Score of 58 tops the field and, as the selection, he is taken to capitalise on the drop in class.
Great KTB Fit 56/100
Great is a modest performer who has won once over today's trip from eight attempts. He has been placed once from five runs on good ground and comes from a yard that operates at a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.11 from 90 runs. The jockey matches that 17% strike rate at Carlisle from 84 rides with an A/E of 1.07. Recent form is patchy, shown by the figures 063787, and this will be his first run at the track. He is drawn in stall 10 and holds a KTB Fit Score of 56.
Bay Breeze KTB Fit 51/100
Bay Breeze is a modest performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. His recent form is ordinary, represented by 0-6734, but he has been competitive in similar races and the draw in stall 2 looks fine. The yard's Carlisle record stands at 10% from a large sample of 1096 runs with an A/E of 0.84, while the jockey is on 8% from 273 rides with an A/E of 0.97. He has recorded 2 wins from 19 starts on good ground with another 4 placed efforts. The KTB Fit Score is 51.
Miss Rainbow KTB Fit 51/100
Miss Rainbow is a modest performer who has run well at this track in the past with a second and a sixth from two visits. She has won twice on good ground from 11 starts and has scored at today's trip though her recent form has been patchy, as the figures 635210 indicate. The yard's record here is a modest 4% strike rate from 162 runs with an A/E of 0.45, which is a concern, while the jockey has a solid 9% strike rate at Carlisle from 158 rides with an A/E of 0.97. She is drawn in stall 9 and carries a KTB Fit Score of 51.
Mr Cool KTB Fit 51/100
Mr Cool is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place five times this year without winning. He has shown some aptitude for this trip with two wins from 20 starts and acts on good ground having won twice from ten runs. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Carlisle from 73 runs with an A/E of 0.92, though the jockey is operating at a below-par 7% from 245 rides with an A/E of 0.54. His sole run here resulted in a fourth and recent form reads 256735. The KTB Fit Score is 51 and he is drawn in stall 4.
The rest of the field
Kyber CrystalKTB Fit 48/100
Kyber Crystal is a limited performer who has been out of the winner's circle for some time and has failed to land a blow in five runs this year. He has shown some course aptitude here with a placing from two runs and his trainer holds a solid record at Carlisle though the jockey is relatively unproven at the track. Stalls one could be a help but he is 0-15 at this trip and has only modest form on good ground.
Mount RuapehuKTB Fit 48/100
Mount Ruapehu is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives in modest form. Carlisle record is poor and the yard's strike-rate here is nothing to shout about either. Has won at today's trip but his record on good ground is only fair.
Instant BondKTB Fit 45/100
Instant Bond is a modest performer with a recent form line of 133101 that shows he can be competitive at this level when on song. Has won at today's trip and on good ground though his sole run here resulted in a modest seventh. Trainer is still seeking a first Carlisle winner from six attempts while the jockey's 11 percent strike rate from a big sample is respectable.
Henriette RonnerKTB Fit 41/100
Henriette Ronner is a limited filly who has struggled since winning a 5f maiden early last season and arrives in poor form. Drops back to her winning trip having been well held over 7f last time but she has shown little on good ground in two starts. First-time headgear is reached for while the yard have yet to trouble the judge from eight runs at Carlisle.
Orbital ChimeKTB Fit 39/100
Orbital Chime is a limited performer who has been placed on good ground but is winless in 18 starts at this trip and has shown little at Carlisle in two previous runs. Recent form is ordinary and the yard has failed to land a blow from nine runners here. Drop back from 7f asks a fresh question while the jockey's modest strike rate at the track adds no encouragement.
SodaKTB Fit 33/100
Soda has shown minor promise on a couple of occasions but remains a limited performer on the balance of her four runs to date. She drops back from a mile to 5f today which poses a fresh question while her wide draw in stall 11 is another negative. The yard records a 10 percent strike rate here from 48 runs and the jockey is 5 percent from 38 rides.
KTB verdict
Catalyse is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit Scores on 58 and looks to have the best chance of the field as he drops in class to a trip he has won over before while acting on good ground. The trainer's solid record at Carlisle offers further encouragement even if the jockey's small-sample figures are more modest. Main dangers are Great, who has a winning trip record and comes from a yard in good form here, and Bay Breeze, who has won at the track and trip and is well drawn. Miss Rainbow and Mr Cool also hold each-way claims on their prior course efforts and consistency respectively.
KTB Selection Catalyse
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Catalyse has the highest KTB Fit Score of 58.
Which runners have previous winning form at Carlisle?
Bay Breeze has won here from four runs.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Carlisle for the yard of the selection?
Jim Goldie has a 10% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.93 from 325 runs.
How many wins has Miss Rainbow recorded on good ground?
Miss Rainbow has 4 wins from 11 starts on good ground.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Henriette Ronner is wearing first-time headgear.
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