2:48 Salisbury
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Division II) over 6f at Salisbury on soft ground features a field of 12 two-year-olds, many of whom are making their racecourse debuts. The KTB Fit scores point to a competitive heat headed by Green Dividend on 62, with Harry Knows not far behind on 55 and a cluster of newcomers rated around the 50 mark. With several unproven on soft ground and limited racecourse evidence overall, the race looks likely to revolve around how ready the debutants are and whether the pace shape favours those up front.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with low confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner will have an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome on this soft surface. Blue Skies Above is the clear front-runner in the field and is likely to take them along from a wide draw, while most others are expected to race in mid-division or be held up. The key question is whether that uncontested lead can be sustained or if a strong-finishing type can bridge the gap in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Green Dividend KTB Selection62/100Harry Eustace has a strong 25% strike rate at Salisbury and his 2yo runners have been hitting the target this season.
- 2Harry Knows55/100Harry Knows shaped with promise when second on debut at Newbury over 5f and holds a useful RPR of 90 from just two runs.
- 3Blue Skies Above52/100Modest performer who has shown little in two starts at this trip.
- 4Beresford Gap50/100Beresford Gap is a newcomer from a yard that has a solid 17% strike-rate with juveniles at Salisbury in recent years.
- 5No More Pino50/100No More Pino is a newcomer from a yard with only two runs at Salisbury.
- 6Make No Mistake48/100Make No Mistake is a £20,000 yearling who is a half-brother to a useful juvenile winner and closely related to a couple of sprint scorers.
- 7Aphra Behn48/100Aphra Behn is a Territories half-sister to middle-distance winners and comes from a family that mostly stays beyond a mile.
- 8Invicta Rose48/100Invicta Rose is a newcomer by State Of Rest out of a 6f AW winning dam and closely related to useful winners up to a mile.
- 9Goodwood Meteor46/100Goodwood Meteor is a first-time runner by Minzaal out of an unraced sister to useful sprint winners Taajub and Excel Yourself.
- 10Walbrook44/100Walbrook is a 58,000 euro yearling and a brother to useful 2yo Listed winner Alpha Capture as well as half-brother to smart sprinter Acklam Express.
- 11Flying Pirate44/100Flying Pirate is a first-foal newcomer by Blackbeard out of a useful US turf 2yo who was placed at Graded level over a mile.
- 12Rattenbury39/100Rattenbury showed very little on debut at Lingfield last week, finishing tailed off after starting slowly.
The contenders
Green Dividend KTB Fit 62/100
Green Dividend is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 62. Harry Eustace has a 25% strike rate at Salisbury and his two-year-olds have been hitting the target this season, while George Wood brings a 19% strike rate at the track. By Showcasing out of a placed 1m2f mare, he is a half-brother to high-class sprinter Advertise and useful 6f/7f winner Flavius Titus, so the pedigree looks right for a sprint debut. Connections and the betting will tell us how ready he is on soft ground from stall 1, with no course win on record but the yard's local record offering encouragement.
Harry Knows KTB Fit 55/100
Harry Knows has the second-highest KTB Fit score on 55 and brings the best figures in the field with an RPR of 90 and Topspeed of 76 from his two runs. He shaped with promise when second on debut at Newbury over 5f but failed to land odds-on at Goodwood last time, though he had traffic issues and has since been gelded. Richard Hughes has a modest 9% strike rate at Salisbury, which contrasts with Oisin Murphy's solid 23% record here from 319 rides. He is dropping in class but is unproven on soft ground and the step up to 6f is an unknown, with his held-up run style likely to see him produced late.
Blue Skies Above KTB Fit 52/100
Blue Skies Above is rated with a KTB Fit of 52 and has shown modest form in two starts at this trip, recording figures of 85 with an RPR of 66 and Topspeed of 63. He tends to make the running or race prominently, which could be significant given the lone-leader pace shape that may hand him an uncontested lead from stall 10. Oliver Cole has a 25% strike rate at Salisbury from a small sample while Tom Marquand operates at 13% from 300 rides here. He is dropping in class but is unproven on soft ground and needs to improve markedly.
Beresford Gap KTB Fit 50/100
Beresford Gap is a newcomer with a KTB Fit of 50 from the Andrew Balding yard, which has a solid 17% strike-rate with juveniles at Salisbury in recent years. A 27,000 euro yearling by Acclamation, he is a half-brother to a modest 7f winner and his dam won over 7f on AW as a juvenile. Balding has a 14% strike-rate from 721 runs at the track while David Probert is operating at 13% from 397 rides here. With no course win on record and no prior racecourse form, he represents an interesting debutant for these connections.
No More Pino KTB Fit 50/100
No More Pino arrives with a KTB Fit of 50 and first-time headgear on debut. A 47,000gns yearling by Blue Point, he is the second foal of a smart 7f-winning dam who scored at two and is out of a 5f juvenile winner. Charlie Pike has a 0% strike rate at Salisbury from two runs while Kieren Fox has an 18% strike rate here from 28 rides. With low data confidence and no course win on record, this one is best watched on his first start.
The rest of the field
Make No MistakeKTB Fit 48/100
Make No Mistake is a newcomer with a KTB Fit of 48. A £20,000 yearling who is a half-brother to a useful juvenile winner and closely related to a couple of sprint scorers, he comes from connections that give him a chance as Clive Cox has a strong recent record in this race. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the colt remains an unknown quantity on debut.
Aphra BehnKTB Fit 48/100
Aphra Behn is a newcomer with a KTB Fit of 48. A Territories half-sister to middle-distance winners from a family that mostly stays beyond a mile, she faces males on debut over an unproven 6f trip on soft ground with no prior racecourse evidence to go on. Ralph Beckett has a solid 15% strike-rate with juveniles at Salisbury while Edward Greatrex is operating at 11% here.
Invicta RoseKTB Fit 48/100
Invicta Rose is a newcomer with a KTB Fit of 48. By State Of Rest out of a 6f AW winning dam and closely related to useful winners up to a mile, she cost 16,000 euros as a yearling and £25,000 at the breeze-ups. Ollie Sangster has a solid 15 percent strike rate at Salisbury from 34 runs while Billy Loughnane is operating at 18 percent from 45 rides here yet this is very much a watching brief given the low data confidence and the fact she takes on males first time.
Goodwood MeteorKTB Fit 46/100
Goodwood Meteor is a first-time runner with a KTB Fit of 46. By Minzaal out of an unraced sister to useful sprint winners Taajub and Excel Yourself, he cost 48,000gns as a yearling and is expected to come on for the experience. The yard and jockey both hold an 11% strike rate at Salisbury from sizeable samples.
WalbrookKTB Fit 44/100
Walbrook is a newcomer with a KTB Fit of 44. A 58,000 euro yearling and a brother to useful 2yo Listed winner Alpha Capture as well as half-brother to smart sprinter Acklam Express, the yard is in decent form yet has a modest 6% strike-rate at Salisbury from 17 runners while this will be their first 2yo runner of the season. Jockey David Egan has a solid 15% strike-rate at the track from 154 rides but with no RPR or Topspeed figures available this debutant remains hard to weigh up.
Flying PirateKTB Fit 44/100
Flying Pirate is a first-foal newcomer with a KTB Fit of 44. By Blackbeard out of a useful US turf 2yo who was placed at Graded level over a mile, the 40,000 euro yearling comes from an in-form yard that operates at a 10% strike rate here from 338 runs. Both trainer and jockey show similar modest 10% records at Salisbury so the debut effort is hard to weigh up with any confidence.
RattenburyKTB Fit 39/100
Rattenbury showed very little on debut at Lingfield last week, finishing tailed off after starting slowly, with a KTB Fit of 39. The limited ability suggested by his RPR of 57 and Topspeed of 54 matches that modest effort and he has a fair bit to find now, though he is dropping in class. Trainer Hills has a 13% strike-rate at Salisbury from 192 runs while Jason Watson is operating at 19% from 105 rides here and he is unproven on soft ground.
KTB verdict
Green Dividend is the KTB Selection and looks to have the right blend of pedigree, trainer form at the track and yard momentum with two-year-olds this season. Harry Eustace's 25% strike rate at Salisbury and the half-brother links to high-class sprinter Advertise give him plenty to recommend him on debut, particularly from a good draw. Harry Knows brings the best figures but has questions to answer after his latest run and on soft ground, while Blue Skies Above could take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape if he can improve. The newcomers from Balding and Cox cannot be entirely dismissed but Green Dividend is the one to focus on.
KTB Selection Green Dividend
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 07:08 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Green Dividend | 16/1 | 10Bet |
| Harry Knows | evn | 10Bet |
| Blue Skies Above | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Beresford Gap | 16/1 | 10Bet |
| No More Pino | 50/1 | 10Bet |
| Make No Mistake | 10/1 | 10Bet |
| Aphra Behn | 11/1 | 10Bet |
| Invicta Rose | 25/1 | 10Bet |
| Goodwood Meteor | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Walbrook | 22/1 | 10Bet |
| Flying Pirate | 5/1 | 10Bet |
| Rattenbury | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:48 Salisbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Salisbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to make the running given the pace shape?
Blue Skies Above tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the clear front-runner in the field.
What is Harry Knows's recent form and highest official rating?
Harry Knows has recent form figures of 24, an RPR of 90 and a Topspeed of 76.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Salisbury in this race?
Harry Eustace has a 25% strike rate at Salisbury with an A/E of 1.61 from 20 runs, matching Oliver Cole's 25% from a small sample of four runs.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Harry Knows, Blue Skies Above, Rattenbury and several debutants including Aphra Behn have no runs on soft ground.
What headgear is No More Pino wearing on debut?
No More Pino is wearing first-time headgear.
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