5:28 Salisbury
This Class 6 handicap over 6f at Salisbury on soft ground brings together a field of 12 three-year-olds, many of them modest performers with relatively limited experience on the surface. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Madman on 60, with Maid In Devon just behind on 59 and Barry The Worm on 57. Several runners remain unproven on soft ground while others bring placed course form, and the overall standard suggests a race that could be decided by how the uncontested lead is handled and which closers can handle the conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in on this soft surface. Tenzi is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and is likely to take up that role from stall 12, while most of the principals including Madman, Barry The Worm and Yes Waliim tend to race in mid-division. The held-up brigade, featuring Maid In Devon, Marra Donna, Grimese's Special, Grand Vista and Follow My Heart, will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters or if the soft ground will allow the midfield and rear-guard to close up effectively in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Madman KTB Selection60/100Modest performer who has run to form on just two of his last six starts and looks exposed after 16 runs.
- 2Maid In Devon59/100Modest performer who has improved since handicapping and won a big-field C&D race here last month on good ground.
- 3Barry The Worm57/100Modest performer who won a 6f handicap on good ground last season but has not built on it.
- 4Marra Donna55/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in four of her last six starts at this trip.
- 5Yes Waliim51/100Modest performer who has shown bits and pieces without winning in five starts.
- 6Stock Market50/100Modest performer who has run to form on his last two starts including a placed effort over 5f.
- 7Grimese's Special48/100Modest performer who won a seller over 7f on heavy ground here last September but has been well below that level on her three starts since.
- 8Grand Vista46/100Modest performer who has shown only ordinary form in three starts at this trip.
- 9Tenzi45/100Modest filly who has shown her best form over this trip with a placed effort among her four attempts.
- 10That's Random43/100Modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts but failed to land a blow in two runs at this trip.
- 11Wayward Queen42/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts at this trip on faster ground.
- 12Follow My Heart38/100Modest performer who showed a bit more on her handicap debut over C&D last month when finishing fourth of 15.
The contenders
Madman KTB Fit 60/100
Madman is a modest performer who has run to form on just two of his last six starts and looks exposed after 16 runs. He has won over this trip but showed little on his only soft-ground outing and makes his first visit to Salisbury. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at the track from 48 runs with an A/E of 0.94 while the jockey boasts a 13% strike rate from 397 rides with an A/E of 1.01. Typically settling in midfield, he will need to bounce back if he is to take advantage of the race's shape. His figures read RPR 72 and Topspeed 52 with recent form of 152569.
Maid In Devon KTB Fit 59/100
Maid In Devon is a modest performer who has improved since handicapping and won a big-field C&D race here last month on good ground. She has the benefit of a good draw in stall 6 and is ridden by Oisin Murphy who has a solid 23% strike rate at the track from 319 rides with an A/E of 1.14. The trainer's record at Salisbury reads 8% from 855 runs with an A/E of 0.81. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she remains lightly raced but the slower ground today represents an unknown as she has no previous soft-ground experience. Her figures are RPR 73 and Topspeed 50 with recent form of 56-451.
Barry The Worm KTB Fit 57/100
Barry The Worm is a modest performer who won a 6f handicap on good ground last season but has not built on it. His only run here saw him finish eighth and he has never tackled soft ground so that side of things is completely unknown. Stall one could be an advantage on this track. The trainer has a 25% strike rate at Salisbury from a small sample of four runs with an A/E of 1.92 while the jockey has a 13% strike rate from 15 rides with an A/E of 1.05. Settling typically in midfield, his figures read RPR 67 and Topspeed 46 with recent form of 5631-6.
Marra Donna KTB Fit 55/100
Marra Donna is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in four of her last six starts at this trip. She has no experience on soft ground and was well beaten on her only previous run here at Salisbury. The yard has a 15% strike rate at the track from 34 runs with an A/E of 1.01 and the jockey has an 18% strike rate from 45 rides with an A/E of 0.79. Usually held up and producing her effort late, her lack of experience on the going remains a question. She posts figures of RPR 73 and Topspeed 60 with recent form of 333245.
Yes Waliim KTB Fit 51/100
Yes Waliim is a modest performer who has shown bits and pieces without winning in five starts. He made late headway when sixth at Lingfield last time over 5f and is now stepped back up to a trip where he has placed once from four attempts. This is a drop in class. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Salisbury from 114 runs with an A/E of 0.66 while the apprentice jockey has no record at the track. Typically settling in midfield, his figures read RPR 66 and Topspeed 53 with recent form of 535-06.
The rest of the field
Stock MarketKTB Fit 50/100
Stock Market is a modest performer who has run to form on his last two starts including a placed effort over 5f. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having been placed once at the trip without winning and his only run here produced a second placing. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Salisbury from 152 runs with an A/E of 0.76 while the jockey has a 13% strike rate from 175 rides with an A/E of 0.72. He settles typically in midfield with figures of RPR 70 and Topspeed 56 and recent form of 980325.
Grimese's SpecialKTB Fit 48/100
Grimese's Special is a modest performer who won a seller over 7f on heavy ground here last September but has been well below that level on her three starts since. Dropping back to an untried 6f poses a fresh question while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Salisbury from 308 runs with an A/E of 0.49 is another negative. She has won here from two runs and settles usually held up with figures of RPR 71 and Topspeed 33 alongside recent form of 7165-0.
Grand VistaKTB Fit 46/100
Grand Vista is a modest performer who has shown only ordinary form in three starts at this trip. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard has a modest 8% strike rate at the track from 39 runs with an A/E of 0.78. Lightly raced with some pedigree upside but nothing in the figures suggests he is ready to take a big step forward. He settles usually held up with figures of RPR 69 and Topspeed 66, recent form of 45-5 and has one run on soft with no win or place.
TenziKTB Fit 45/100
Tenzi is a modest filly who has shown her best form over this trip with a placed effort among her four attempts. She has been below that level in two starts since winning on AW in March and now returns from a break. The trainer has a modest 5% strike-rate here from 177 runs with an A/E of 0.52 while the jockey has a 12% strike rate from 33 rides with an A/E of 0.81. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she has one run on soft with no win or place and figures of RPR 71 and Topspeed 39 with recent form of 3-3146.
That's RandomKTB Fit 43/100
That's Random is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts but failed to land a blow in two runs at this trip. He steps up in trip having been tried at 7f and 6f on AW so far and this represents a fresh question. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Salisbury from 23 runs with an A/E of 0.87 and the jockey has an 11% strike rate from 27 rides with an A/E of 0.93. Settling typically in midfield with figures of RPR 63, recent form of 6-85 and no soft-ground experience.
Wayward QueenKTB Fit 42/100
Wayward Queen is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts at this trip on faster ground. First-time headgear and a basement mark offer some hope now she switches to handicaps for a yard with a solid 15% strike rate at Salisbury from 660 runs with an A/E of 0.9. Lightly raced so the soft ground is an unknown and the wide draw in stall 10 is far from ideal. She settles typically in midfield with figures of RPR 62 and Topspeed 34 alongside recent form of 965.
Follow My HeartKTB Fit 38/100
Follow My Heart is a modest performer who showed a bit more on her handicap debut over C&D last month when finishing fourth of 15. She has a useful pedigree and remains open to improvement at this level but needs to iron out the tendency to hang right. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 855 runs here with an A/E of 0.81 while the jockey has a 6% strike rate from 52 rides with an A/E of 0.69. Usually held up, she has no soft-ground experience with figures of RPR 60 and Topspeed 27 and recent form of 9594.
KTB verdict
The race looks set up for the lone leader to have every chance on soft ground, but the principals hold the strongest claims on balance. Madman is the KTB Selection as a modest but proven performer over the trip who can bounce back under the guidance of a trainer and jockey with solid Salisbury records, even if the soft ground and first visit to the track add unknowns. Maid In Devon represents the chief danger after her recent C&D success, with the good draw, top jockey booking and lightly-raced profile counting in her favour despite the ground question. Barry The Worm, Marra Donna and Yes Waliim complete the main contenders, each bringing different merits around consistency, draw and class drop, while the remainder of the field largely lack the same level of encouragement on these terms.
KTB Selection Madman
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 07:05 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Madman | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Maid In Devon | 10/11 | William Hill |
| Barry The Worm | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Marra Donna | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Yes Waliim | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Stock Market | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Grimese's Special | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Grand Vista | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Tenzi | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| That's Random | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Wayward Queen | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Follow My Heart | 12/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:28 Salisbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Salisbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead given the pace shape?
Tenzi is the only confirmed front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals have previous soft-ground experience?
Only Madman has a run on soft ground, where he showed little with no win or place.
Which runner has course-and-distance winning form at Salisbury?
Maid In Devon won a big-field C&D race here last month on good ground from one run.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Salisbury for the yard of the KTB Selection?
The trainer of Madman has a 10% strike rate at Salisbury from 48 runs with an A/E of 0.94.
Which horses in the field are dropping in class for this race?
Yes Waliim, Grimese's Special, Grand Vista, Tenzi, That's Random and Wayward Queen are all dropping in class.
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