2:55 Newbury
This Class 5 handicap over a mile at Newbury on good to soft ground features an 11-runner field of largely unexposed three-year-olds. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Suggy heading the list on 56, closely followed by You Sexy Thing, Box Clever, The Stone Power and Storm Point all on 54 or 55. Recent form is generally solid and several hold placed efforts at the trip, though the race poses questions around turf and going suitability for a number of runners as well as the step up to a mile for some.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, as a front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types. Sydney Rock is the one who tends to make the running, with prominent runners such as Box Clever, The Stone Power, Alpine Culture, Mayflower Billy and Lahan Kingman all likely to race handily and apply pressure. This sets up a fair test and the key question is which of the held-up runners, including the selection Suggy, can time their late effort best once the pace has been truly tested.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Suggy KTB Selection56/100Suggy is a fair 3 year old who showed improved form when winning a Kempton handicap on his reappearance and has already scored at this trip.
- 2You Sexy Thing55/100This fair 2-year-old ran to a solid level as a juvenile with a Sandown 7f win and a placed effort in better company at Doncaster.
- 3Box Clever55/100Box Clever is a fair 3yo with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts over this trip.
- 4The Stone Power54/100The Stone Power has shown fair form in three runs to date and was placed when stepped up to this trip on his latest start.
- 5Storm Point54/100Storm Point is a fair 3-year-old who showed his best when winning a Kempton handicap in April before running into traffic at Lingfield.
- 6Luminare52/100Luminare is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a placed effort at this trip on his only attempt.
- 7Alpine Culture52/100Alpine Culture has shown fair form in four runs with best RPR of 83 and looks interesting dropped back to 1m having been placed at the trip on his only previous…
- 8Sydney Rock48/100Sydney Rock has shown fair form in three runs as a 2yo, finishing second on her latest two starts at 7f.
- 9Slack Bob47/100Slack Bob is a fair 3 year old who arrives in decent form with three consecutive placed efforts and an RPR of 82.
- 10Mayflower Billy46/100Mayflower Billy has shown fair form for this level with an RPR of 81 and has placed once in two runs at this trip.
- 11Lahan Kingman42/100Lahan Kingman showed fair form when third on debut over 7f here as a 2yo behind a subsequent Group winner and has posted two ordinary efforts on AW this year.
The contenders
Suggy KTB Fit 56/100
Suggy is a fair three-year-old who showed improved form when winning a Kempton handicap on his reappearance and has already scored at this trip. He is up just 4lb for that success and should handle good to soft ground though his sole previous run here resulted in a midfield finish. The Hills yard has an 8% strike rate at Newbury while Watson is operating at 12% for the track. With figures of RPR 85 and TS 65 he brings the highest rating in the field and his recent form of 0722-1 reads well. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is expected to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a genuine clip. Stepping up in class, he remains the KTB selection.
You Sexy Thing KTB Fit 55/100
You Sexy Thing is a fair two-year-old who ran to a solid level as a juvenile with a Sandown 7f win and a placed effort in better company at Doncaster. He steps up to 1m for the first time today after being gelded. Trainer Richard Spencer holds a strong 14% strike rate at Newbury while Saffie Osborne is operating at a 7% strike rate on the track. His figures read RPR 81 and TS 70 and his juvenile form of 56130- contained useful placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from off the pace. Dropping in class, he has placed once from one run on good to soft.
Box Clever KTB Fit 55/100
Box Clever is a fair 3yo with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts over this trip. She has already shown up well twice at Newbury and arrives in form after a good second at Nottingham last time. The yard's modest strike rate here and the small sample on this type of ground both temper expectations. With an RPR of 82 and recent form of 3143-2 she brings solid placed form. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, she should be prominent early in what is set to be a genuinely-run race. Unproven on good to soft, she has been placed once from two runs at the course.
The Stone Power KTB Fit 54/100
The Stone Power has shown fair form in three runs to date and was placed when stepped up to this trip on his latest start. He now makes his turf and handicap debut after being gelded. Ralph Beckett has a 12% strike rate from 590 runs at Newbury while Hector Crouch is operating at 10% from 194 rides here. Rated RPR 82 he drops in class for this assignment. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be to the fore in a race with a genuine pace. Unproven on good to soft having had no previous runs on the surface.
Storm Point KTB Fit 54/100
Storm Point is a fair 3-year-old who showed his best when winning a Kempton handicap in April before running into traffic at Lingfield. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having raced only at 6f and 7f on AW so far, which asks a fresh question of him on turf debut. Ed Walker has a solid 13% strike rate at Newbury from 338 runs while Kieran Shoemark sits on 9% from 282 rides here. His RPR is 83 and recent form reads 954-16. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be among those coming from off the pace. Unproven on good to soft.
The rest of the field
LuminareKTB Fit 52/100
Luminare is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a placed effort at this trip on his only attempt. He steps up from 7f today while facing an unknown on good to soft ground having never raced on it. The Haggas yard posts a 20% strike rate at Newbury and Marquand is operating at 15% here so the stable and rider bring proven course knowledge. His figures are RPR 81 and TS 69 with form of 31-623. Usually held up, he will race from off the pace.
Alpine CultureKTB Fit 52/100
Alpine Culture has shown fair form in four runs with best RPR of 83 and looks interesting dropped back to 1m having been placed at the trip on his only previous attempt. The yard records a 10% strike rate from 31 runs at Newbury while Oisin Murphy has a 15% strike rate from 538 rides here. Lightly-raced with only four career starts so going suitability remains unknown. His recent form is 4-336 and he drops in class. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Sydney RockKTB Fit 48/100
Sydney Rock has shown fair form in three runs as a 2yo, finishing second on her latest two starts at 7f. She steps up to 1m for the first time today which looks a suitable move on pedigree and she is not fully exposed now handicapping. The Newbury run reads well enough though the trainer's modest 8% strike rate from 13 runs here offers little encouragement. With RPR 80 and form of 222- she tends to make the running or race on the pace. She has placed once from one run on good to soft and was second on her sole course visit.
Slack BobKTB Fit 47/100
Slack Bob is a fair 3 year old who arrives in decent form with three consecutive placed efforts and an RPR of 82. He steps back up to 1m having won over 7f last time though he has placed over this trip before and the yard's 10 percent strike rate from 359 runs at Newbury offers some encouragement. The jockey's 7 percent record from 369 rides at the track is more modest and the small sample on this going means his effectiveness on good to soft remains untested. Recent form is 54-321 and he steps up in class. Usually held up.
Mayflower BillyKTB Fit 46/100
Mayflower Billy has shown fair form for this level with an RPR of 81 and has placed once in two runs at this trip. He shaped well when second on handicap debut at Doncaster over 1m on good to soft in May yet now goes up 4lb against several less exposed types. The trainer has only one run at Newbury while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate here from 81 rides. His form reads 0-482 and he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Lahan KingmanKTB Fit 42/100
Lahan Kingman showed fair form when third on debut over 7f here as a 2yo behind a subsequent Group winner and has posted two ordinary efforts on AW this year. She now steps up to 1m for the first time in a handicap with first-time headgear applied while returning to turf. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Newbury is offset by the jockey's solid 15% record at the track. Rated RPR 77 with form of 3-22 she usually races handily on or close to the lead.
KTB verdict
Suggy is the KTB selection. A fair three-year-old who showed improved form when winning a Kempton handicap on his reappearance, he is only 4lb higher and has already scored at a mile. Usually held up, he is well suited by the expected genuinely-run pace and brings the best RPR in the field. His main dangers are You Sexy Thing, who drops in class after a solid juvenile campaign and is from a yard in form at the track, and Box Clever, who has shown up well twice at Newbury and arrives off a good second. The Stone Power and Storm Point also hold each-way claims if they handle the ground and the step up to a mile respectively.
KTB Selection Suggy
This is the narrative read of the 2:55 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in class after a recent Kempton win?
Suggy, a fair 3 year old who showed improved form when winning a Kempton handicap on his reappearance and is up just 4lb.
Who is likely to set the pace in this genuinely-run race?
Sydney Rock tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be pressed by several prominent runners.
Which contenders are making their turf debut in this handicap?
The Stone Power makes his turf and handicap debut after being gelded, while Storm Point makes his turf debut having raced only on AW so far.
What is the trainer and jockey combination with the strongest Newbury strike rate in the field?
William Haggas has a 20% strike rate at Newbury and Tom Marquand is operating at 15% here for Luminare.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Lahan Kingman, who is stepping up to 1m for the first time in a handicap while returning to turf.
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