3:42 Nottingham
This Class 4 handicap over 1m75y at Nottingham on good ground features a field of nine useful performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. One Night Thunder heads the KTB rankings on 64 with a recent solid third, closely followed by On The River on 63, Return To Unit on 62 and Swift Salian on 59. The official figures show little between them, with several holding RPRs in the mid-90s, though the strong pace anticipated adds another layer to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace likely and two or more habitual front-runners present, the race is expected to be run at a good clip that could cause it to collapse in the latter stages. Return To Unit, Triple Double A and Miletus all tend to make the running or race prominently, while On The River and Swift Salian usually race handily on or close to the lead. This setup should favour hold-up horses such as Wondrous Light and Youarenotforgiven, posing the key question of whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the race will fall into the lap of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1One Night Thunder KTB Selection64/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a solid third last time.
- 2On The River63/100Useful performer who has won at this trip and at this track.
- 3Return To Unit62/100Useful performer who won the C&D maiden on good ground last October and has already shown he handles this track.
- 4Swift Salian59/100Swift Salian arrives in solid form with two seconds from his last three starts and holds a useful RPR of 91.
- 5Wondrous Light58/100Wondrous Light is a useful performer on his day with an RPR of 96 and has shown that by winning four of his last six starts.
- 6Youarenotforgiven54/100Youarenotforgiven arrives in solid nick with three wins from his last six starts and a useful rating that fits this level.
- 7Triple Double A54/100Useful performer who has run to a high RPR of 94 and already won three times over today's 1m trip.
- 8Miletus51/100Miletus is a useful performer on his best days with a recent string of solid placed efforts and an RPR of 95 that sets the standard here.
- 9San Juanito46/100San Juanito is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 86 but has been well below that level for some time and finished last on his final start of last…
The contenders
One Night Thunder KTB Fit 64/100
One Night Thunder is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a solid third last time. He has placed both starts at this track and on good ground while the step up to a mile looks a fair question given one placed effort at the trip from five attempts. The 6-year-old typically settles in midfield from draw 4, which could prove ideal given the expected strong pace. Trainer Gemma Tutty has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.15 from 16 runs, while jockey Sam James has a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.91 from 37 rides. Their combination has produced a 7/37 (19%) record with an A/E of 1.68 and +£25.10 LSP. With an RPR of 95 and recent form figures of 129-03 he holds every chance.
On The River KTB Fit 63/100
On The River is a useful performer who has won at this trip and at this track. Recent form has been patchy but the ratings still stack up in this grade and the course record reads a solid one from two. The 7-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead from draw 8, though he has never won on good ground from a dozen tries and has placed just twice from 12 starts on the surface. Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.01 from 13 runs, while jockey P J McDonald has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.02 from 227 rides; together they are 2/11 (18%) with an A/E of 1.15 and +£1.50 LSP. Rated with an RPR of 96 and recent form of 42-527 he remains a serious player.
Return To Unit KTB Fit 62/100
Return To Unit is a useful performer who won the C&D maiden on good ground last October and has already shown he handles this track. His recent handicap debut at Ayr was underwhelming yet he remains lightly raced with scope to improve, especially now tried in first-time headgear. The 4-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace from draw 2, which will be interesting given the strong pace shape. Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.91 from 263 runs, while jockey Ray Dawson has a 15% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.05 from 106 rides; their overall record is 70/383 (18%) with an A/E of 0.80. With an RPR of 94 and form figures of 721-7 he cannot be dismissed.
Swift Salian KTB Fit 59/100
Swift Salian arrives in solid form with two seconds from his last three starts and holds a useful RPR of 91. He has won on good ground and at today's trip though his record on both is modest overall. The 5-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead from draw 3, which could see him prominent in a race with a strong pace likely. Trainer David & Nicola Barron have a 20% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.64 from 15 runs, though jockey William Pyle has managed just a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.36 from 26 rides; they are 5/71 (7%) with an A/E of 0.63 and -£36.25 LSP. Recent form of 624-22 keeps him in the picture.
The rest of the field
Wondrous LightKTB Fit 58/100
Wondrous Light is a useful performer on his day with an RPR of 96 and has shown that by winning four of his last six starts. He has already won over this trip and at this track from his only visit, though the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham is a negative. The jockey has a solid record here and the horse acts on good ground while his hold-up style could be well suited to the strong pace.
YouarenotforgivenKTB Fit 54/100
Youarenotforgiven arrives in solid nick with three wins from his last six starts and a useful rating that fits this level. He has placed here without winning and his trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Nottingham is a negative though the jockey's 12% record offers some compensation. Three wins from 12 starts on good ground and six from 26 at this trip are both positives and his hold-up style should suit the pace.
Triple Double AKTB Fit 54/100
Triple Double A is a useful performer who has run to a high RPR of 94 and already won three times over today's 1m trip. He has shown little on good ground in four starts and was well held when last seen over further, though he did finish second on his only visit to Nottingham. Palmer's modest strike rate here is matched by a low A/E, while the 5lb claimer has a small but positive record at the track and his front-running style will be to the fore.
MiletusKTB Fit 51/100
Miletus is a useful performer on his best days with a recent string of solid placed efforts and an RPR of 95 that sets the standard here. He has already placed on his only run at Nottingham and steps up to a trip he has won over before though his two runs on good ground have produced no win or place. The trainer has had only one runner at the track while the jockey’s modest 7% strike-rate from 172 rides suggests he will need to improve on recent efforts and his front-running style will be prominent.
San JuanitoKTB Fit 46/100
San Juanito is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 86 but has been well below that level for some time and finished last on his final start of last season. He has already been tried over this trip with one win from six attempts though he drops back from 1m1½f today while his two runs on good ground brought no win or place. The trainer has an 8 percent strike rate from 53 runs at Nottingham while the jockey fares better with 17 percent from 139 rides here though the horse himself was well held on his only previous run at the track.
KTB verdict
One Night Thunder is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with placed form at the track and on good ground, he arrives in decent nick after a solid third and his midfield run-style looks well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late. The step up to a mile is a fair question but the trainer and jockey both have solid records here and his RPR of 95 stacks up. Main dangers are On The River, whose course record and trip prowess cannot be ignored despite no win on good, and Return To Unit, who won the C&D maiden on good and now gets first-time headgear from a yard with a strong Nottingham record. Swift Salian and Wondrous Light are others to consider in a competitive race.
KTB Selection One Night Thunder
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to benefit most from the strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses such as Wondrous Light and Youarenotforgiven are favoured if the strong pace collapses late as anticipated.
How has Return To Unit performed over the course and distance previously?
Return To Unit won the C&D maiden on good ground last October and has a 1 from 1 record at the course.
What is One Night Thunder's course record at Nottingham?
One Night Thunder has placed both starts at this track with a record of no wins but has been placed.
Which trainers hold the strongest strike rates at Nottingham in this field?
David & Nicola Barron have a 20% strike rate, Gemma Tutty 19% and Roger Varian 19% at Nottingham.
Has On The River won at this track and trip before?
On The River has won at this trip and at this track with a solid course record of 1 from 2.
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