3:00 Bath
This Class 6 division of the Welsh Power 20th Anniversary Handicap at Bath is the second leg of the Summer Sprint Series qualifier over an extended five furlongs on good ground. A field of nine largely modest performers lines up, with the KTB Fit scores reflecting a race that lacks real depth and is likely to be decided by which of these limited types can find a bit of spark on a track where course form carries extra weight. The overall numbers point to a competitive but unspectacular contest in which previous Bath success and a favourable run style could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any obvious front-runner, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy to the pace should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all four principals, tending to be held up and producing their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around halfway. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a muddling gallop on this sharp track, or whether those who can get a slightly more prominent position will hold the advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Up The Anti KTB Selection56/100
Up The Anti is a limited performer who has been struggling for form this season and was pulled up on his most recent start. He has won over this trip in the past and possesses a solid record at Bath, including one victory from three runs. The Tony Carroll yard continues to do okay at the track with an 11% strike rate from a huge sample and a jockey in Jack Doughty who has a 16% strike rate here himself. While the horse has failed to place in four runs on good ground, the combination of course knowledge and the steadily-run race expected should suit his usual held-up style in which he produces his effort late.
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2Honour Your Dreams51/100
Honour Your Dreams is a limited performer who has run respectably in a few recent starts yet lacks real spark. He did win on his only previous visit to Bath and has scored over today's trip, though his overall record shows he is usually found out when the race gets competitive. The Michael Attwater stable continues to have a solid record at the track with a 13% strike rate. With Kieren Fox in the saddle, this held-up performer will be coming from off the pace in a race where being handy is expected to pay, and his Bath victory remains a positive in a modest field.
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3Geemann49/100
Geemann is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed form at this trip. He has run four times at Bath without placing and looks no better than average on this ground, though he is dropping in class which may help. The Joe Tickle yard maintains a steady 12% strike rate at the track from a decent-sized sample, while Taylor Fisher is a 12% rider here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to improve on his Bath record if he is to figure prominently in what is set to be a tactical affair.
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4I Was Thinking45/100
I Was Thinking is a limited performer who has shown just flashes of ability, most notably a placed effort over this trip and a third here at Bath last season. Drawn in stall 1 which could help on this sharp track, his overall record remains modest and recent form has been patchy. Trainer Adrian Wintle has a solid 16% strike rate at the course from a big sample and pairs with Finley Marsh, who himself has a 15% strike rate at Bath. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he could be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
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5Sisters In The Sky44/100
Sisters In The Sky is a limited performer who has been busy and consistent at this level, with recent form figures of 349234 showing she is usually in the mix without winning. She has a solid record here at Bath, winning three times from 27 starts, and has also won at today's trip.
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6Ten Cuidado43/100
Ten Cuidado is a limited horse who has shown very little in six starts to date and now drops back sharply from a mile. First-time headgear is tried in a bid to spark improvement but the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Bath offers little encouragement.
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7Daley T38/100
Daley T is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and has never won. He has been placed at today's trip but his three runs at Bath have produced no better than fifth and he is yet to win on good ground, though the trainer's solid record at the track offers some hope.
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8Cici's Secret36/100
Cici's Secret is a limited filly who has shown very little in five runs at this trip. She finished sixth on her only visit to Bath and has been well beaten on both starts this season, while the trainer's small sample at the track gives no meaningful guide.
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9Rogue Rebellion34/100
Rogue Rebellion is a limited horse who has been placed a few times without winning and looks fully exposed after 15 runs. He is consistent enough at this track and trip with a second and two other placed efforts from five visits to Bath, and he has shown he can be competitive on good ground.
KTB verdict
Up The Anti is the KTB Selection. Despite being a limited horse who has been struggling for form this season and was pulled up last time, his previous win over the trip and solid record at Bath, including one victory from three runs, make him the most appealing in a modest field. The steadily-run, tactical affair expected should play to his held-up style, and the trainer-jockey combination's respectable figures at the track add further encouragement. His main dangers are Honour Your Dreams, who won on his only previous visit to Bath, and the course-placed I Was Thinking, while Geemann cannot be entirely dismissed dropping in class.
KTB Selection Up The Anti
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Bath?
Up The Anti has a solid record here at Bath including one victory from three runs, while Sisters In The Sky has won three times from 27 starts and Rogue Rebellion has multiple placed efforts from five visits.
How is the race expected to be run given the pace shape?
It lacks a leader so is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with most runners held up and producing efforts late.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Bath in this field?
Adrian Wintle has a 16% strike rate at Bath from 261 runs, Michael Attwater 13% from 157 runs, and Joe Tickle and Tony Carroll both record 11-12% from large samples.
Who is dropping in class and what is their course form like?
Geemann is dropping in class but has run four times at Bath without placing; Daley T is also dropping in class but has three runs here with no better than fifth.
Which horses have previous wins over this trip or at Bath?
Up The Anti, Honour Your Dreams and Sisters In The Sky have all won at today's trip; Up The Anti, Honour Your Dreams and Sisters In The Sky have also won at Bath.
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